If 5/HH were in every hand (20k), you start your math on that figure, then work backward based on those with 10, 20 or more sets in hand, selling.
Not only that, but the First Strike cutoff at PCGS is looming (7th December). After that date the only sets that will be eligible for the all-important FS label will be those that are sealed in the Mint shipping box. Opened sets will only be eligible for the 25th Anniversary Set label on the two keys with none of the coins FS eligible. This is about the worst time to sell if you're sitting on sealed sets. Maximum supply of graded sets available for sale, and it seems like more and more boxes are being opened to sell as singles every day. There's a reason that 2 major dealers are offering $700+ for sealed sets, and it ain't that they think the prices are going to decline.
MCM are at $700, but I can tell you from a quick phone call that they'll go a bit higher for quantity. WonderCoins are at $690 but will attempt to match other bids.
I wouldn't read too much into what the dealers are paying, because they are going to turn them around and sell them as fast as possible. The best time to sell has been ever since they came out, because you could buy them back much cheaper now.
You're right, if MCM is paying $700, WOW. Hard to figure though as most submissions of 5 sealed sets to PCGS are not yielding a full set of 70's. Those 5 sealed sets are going for say $3,600 + $750 grading, shipping, ins. totaling $4,350. Yet a PCGS full 70 set is less than $2,000. NGC is $1,600. After you sell off the non 70 singles, is there a profit??? Don't forget 12% to ebay and PP plus you're paying shipping.
With their volume of business they probably get discounts from the grading companies and ebay. But even without that, if they get one set graded at 70 then they are making a handsome profit on a box of 5 sets.
You have to keep in mind that MCM is in close proximity to NGC, and that the owner (I believe) used to work there as a grader. NGC are at $17/coin for grading or $105 per set (not sure what dealers pay?), and MCM are selling on their website at $1,049 for 69s and $1,899 for 70s. Assume 1 x 70 and 4 x 69 from a box of 5 as a worst case scenario: cost = ($700 x 5) + ($105 x 5) = $4,025....sell = ($1,049 x 4) + ($1,899 x 1) = $6,095 which is > 50% profit. Considering that we're talking NGC, 1 set of 70s from a box of 5 is fairly unlikely. Also they're probably submitting hundreds of sets and would be averaging a lot higher than 20% 70s. The math is pretty good for them. Also NGC's deadline for "Early Releases" is 8th December 2011, and they differ from PCGS in that they won't give ER designation to sets received after the cutoff even if they are in the original Mint shipping box postmarked prior to the cutoff. Sooooo...just one more week and then NGC ER is gone forever for these.
Just don't understand the reasoning here. How can it be a good time to sell when the market is flooded?
I'm sitting on mine until the market shakes out. 1year? 2years? Whatever it takes for the prices to stabilize. If it stabilizes high, great. If it stabilizes low, so be it. I'll chance it.
Well heck dang, I was satisfied with what I received for two raw sets this past Sunday. Almost paid for the whole shebang. Gonna take two more sets to FUN in January and see if I can score enough to maybe feed my passion for Classic Commemorative's........
Dad 10 sets and pieced them all out selling the Proof and S min mark by themselves and then selling the 3 coin set.After ebay fees,shipping,and paypal I made a 4840 profit . Just want to give everyone here a HUGE thank you for helping me with all my newbie questions during this time Best to all and Happy Holidays
Once the mint ships them all and Christmas buyers kick into gear we should see a bit of a shake out. They are selling at a heavily discounted price right now.
Four separate eBay auctions for MS/PR NGC-70 sets found no buyers at $1,500 ($1,470 after eBay Bucks rebate) this afternoon! Taking into account the recent note from NGC...that they have an unprecedented amount of 25th anniversary set backlog yet to grade, I'm still thinking that these 70 sets will go for $1,200 by January.
OK, 100,000 mintage and highly sought after the day they came out, thats two huge strikes right there towards long term collectability ..