Negative Correlation -- 25th Anniversary Set

I look at this as more of a mind game in hopes of a better future. My guess is that the value of these sets will be tied into what happens with the world economy. If our money system falls apart, these coins will loose most of their value. Their value is expressed in the value of todays economy. If the world economy fails, people will not be buying collectibles, they will be buying food, medicine, securing shelter, and aquiring energy with what our devalued money will buy. Intern, people will be liquidating any collectibles they own to obtain these necessities. All our coins, including these sets, will become but a fraction of their current value. Only if we solve this problem, will the future value we assign to these sets, have merit. It sort of reminds me to think about where lifes priorities are.

 

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I believe we will see a decline in the value of this set once we get through the next few months. But, I think it will remain well above the original sale price. I think right now there is a huge rush to pick up these sets which is driving the price up.

 

True, demand is high now, but so too is supply. In a few months/years why would the 2011 set not find an equilibrium price with the 1995W & 2006 set?

 

If our system falls apart, true the numismatic value will evaporate. But, what will the silver value be?

 

Thats the only thing I can say is "smart" about buying these coins, they have a built in hedge.

 

Price trend on 2006 set is down. That set, ungraded, is selling for around 300% of spot or $315. One coin of that is worth all the numismatic value, the reverse proof + some at $265. That means the other two common coins in the set are selling for less than spot at $24.50 ea.

Assuming no inflation or change in silver price, and using the fact there are 2 unique coins we arrive at the following price based on the 2006 set. This also assumes the 2006 doesn't continue to lose value.

$603.50 in 5 years.

Thus, people paying more than this for that set now that are only interested in the investment potential are not doing themselves any favors. This is assuming you are using the 2006 as the basis for the analysis.

 

You didn't factor in the fact there are 2.5 times as many 2006 RP's, which could make the 2011 set worth around $1500. Then you could say there are 3 times as many 2011 keys as there are 1995W's, making each 2011 key worth $1000. Then you could say, when the economy recovers, so too will numismatic value making all the ASE keys worth even more.

 

If price is falling on the 2006 set, then clearly supply exceeds demand. We don't know where the inflection point for demand is for these coins based on the criteria you gave. All we know is that it is somewhere between 30K and 250K. Is it less than 100K? I don't think anyone knows. Despite all the hysteria that surrounded the ATB coins, they quickly fell to spot prices and there were only 30K of each of those.

 

That's true, we don't know. But we do know the price for a key from the 2011 set will be higher than a key from the 2006 set. Comparing ASE's to ATB's is comparing apples to oranges - there are many more ASE collectors (for now). BTW, the price fell a little on the 2006 RP when the economy crashed and has since risen.

 

all I know is I bought 3 sets. I sold one set close to what I paid for all 3. that means I have 2 sets for free. I will enjoy them as a collector.

I think if investors are concerned about the current melt value then buy or sell bullion in tubes or monster boxes. (if you want to take in physical silver)

and let us collectors enjoy the collectors version of bullion.

when the mint announced the release date of the 25th ASE set I was one of those haters.I had given up on ASE'S a long time ago. but when I saw how much hype there was I had to jump in
(as a collector) I'm glad I fallowed the herd. because now I have 2 beautiful sets.

I did not buy my sets just so I can watch what the precious metal markets are doing.

 

http://www.ebay.com/itm/130599877350?ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT&_trksid=p3984.m1423.l2649#ht_3875wt_1398

$3800 FOR 1 set ? thats banana's !

 

Hmm. I would say there are far far far more collectors of quarters than most anything else. I'm sure that someone with "quarter" in their forum name should know that.

 

This set shows what is wrong with sending in sealed sets. The last three numbers of the NGC serial number indicate the sequence graded. Since there are 5 coins in a set there should be 5 coins with numbers that are in sequence if they came from the same set.

The eBay seller just grabbed five coins graded 70 and Created a set.

This works if you submit a large number of sets at the same time. You can cherry pick the results and get a set of 70's. In reality there may have been a 68 in one of the original 5 coin sets, which would have decreased the overall value of the actual graded set.

If all five graded 70's came from One original set then the price isn't unreasonable, because this should be a very rare. The three coins (bullion; unc. w; proof w) are not rare in 70.

Yes, this set has been bid way beyond what the RP & S should sell for in grade 70 IMHO

 

This is non-sense. Most are selling for more than $315. Upwards of $380. Nobody is buying ASEs for less than spot. You'd be hard pressed to find somebody selling a regular 2006 proof by itself for less than $60. As is the case with most proof versions of the ASE. The 06 rev. pf is worth around $200 and has been for the last few years. That's probably about right given the fact that there's 250k of them available. Not bad given the state of the economy.

There will be 100k of these available. To compare these as equivalents makes no sense at all.

 

duplicate

 

Then you completely failed to read or understand the posts and the context that led up to this analysis. No wonder it was nonsense to you.

 

I think it will find an equilibrium...just like the 2006 set. If you remember, the 2006 set had extremely high prices for a few months before settling down a bit. They still carry a healthy premium much. I think this set will be the same way. Once we get through the first several months, the prices will settle down but still be well above the original sales price.

 

Your bartering skills will determine the value of your silver. In a world where everyone is starving why would someone sell their precious canisters of freeze dried food for a silver UHR when the other offer is 2 ounces of junk silver coins.

A less radical example, $4/gallon gasoline = about 2 silver junk dimes.

Numismatic values decline in relation to how desperate the holder becomes. This value is most recognized within the coin community. Whereas the "intrinsic value" equals the spot price for the metal content.

Human nature as it is will "spend" the junk silver first.

Currently it is illegal to refuse legal tender and demand PMs

 

I completely agree with this but this is a blanket statement that can be said for EVERYTHING. If we were all 100% certain that everything was going to collapse in our lifetimes, than we may as well quit our jobs and go live with the survivalists now. We certainly wouldn't be collecting anything but food and ammo. You may as well say an astroid could be coming to wipe us out too so don't pay the going rate for a 25th commemorative set since the numismatic value won't hold in that scenario.

 

The world ecomony is have trouble right now in the present age. There is no threat from an astoriod. That's a big difference.