Negative Correlation -- 25th Anniversary Set

Now that there are 11 threads on this (over)hyped set in the bullion section, maybe there is a negative correlation between how much attention it is getting and its future performance. Any thoughts?

 

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I don't understand why everybody wants to see the value of this set doomed. It's like people can't stand the fact that some benefited from this release and they want to see it crash to teach everyone a lesson. Instead of just seeing it for what it is.

Everybody wants to say a 100,000 mintage is not rare. Well, it depends on what the product is. I have a 2008 $5 Bald eagle PF-70 commemorative that only had a 100k mintage. It's worth more than melt but does not have a huge numismatic premium. Despite the 70 grade. Certainly not as high as I believe it should be. But I can concede, it was 3 years ago and it's possible most people have forgotten about them. So, the going price is suppressed.

There are far more people interested in ASEs. A 25th anniversary ASE set will not be forgotten. Like I said, I only have a few and do not regularly collect them, but I knew this set looked great. Plus, being a 25th anniversary set, I had to have one. I love the reverse proofs. And yes, I already owned a 2006 RP, and still wanted multiple sets of these to KEEP. To top it off, my kid was born the day before they were released so I wanted them for my first child as well. There you go. Multiple reasons from a non-collector of ASEs on why these are getting a lot of attention and could stay hot. There are people saving far more sets than me for themselves. If 33,333 people in the entire world only do what I did, everybody else is screwed.

But it would take less than that because there's got to be dealers out there hoarding, 50 to 100 sets or more. And who knows how many will be broken up by next year? The fact of the matter is that there will be far less than 100,000 sets even left in one piece 5 years from now, let alone available for sale.

There's probably a million people out there world wide, that would love to have this set. If 200,000 of them are willing to pay what it takes to get 1-3 sets to collect or as gifts for the kids this Christmas, and there's only 50k or less for sale, what happens? I'd guess less than half the mintage will be flipped when you factor in people keeping 2 or more sets for themselves.

Lets just drop it and see what happens. Who cares? One side will be right. I think this all boils down to whiners who didn't get theirs that desperately want to see it crash so they can get one easier. Instead of just looking at the facts and being quiet. There's history to fall back on this time with a higher mintage, smaller, past anniversary set holding a large premium that seems to get interpreted however people want to see it.

If I wouldn't have gotten through to the mint, I'd take my chances on ebay right now, while there's 10 pages of them listed. This huge supply should be driving prices down as low as they can go. Or, I'd try to get one from somebody here. I wouldn't risk waiting until there's only a handful of them for sale and you're at the few sellers' mercy. If that's the plan, I wish you luck. I dont' see the popularity going down for these. Only the availability of in-tact sets.

 

I guess I should clarify some things. I did not begin this thread with the idea I would like to see the value of this set decline. I did manage to order1 set, which is supposed to be delivered tomorrow. I could have ordered 5, but didn't. I began it more as a matter of interest than wishful thinking.

In the past, there have been items that have gotten much attention, but ended up losing value, there have been items that have gotten much attention and have maintained their value or even increased it. Conversely, there have been items that have received little attention and have increased in value, etc.

I have only been a member here for a little less than a year and this is by far the most hype I have seen given to an item at this point. The ATB "pucks" received a lot of hype, but nowhere near this. Because of this, its future performance is of interest to me.

My background is in equities where a contrarian point of view is widely maintained. Some believe you should sell a stock when everyone wants it and buy a stock when nobody wants it (within reason, that is.) I was just wondering if the same thought process carried over into coins.

Anyway, I have just been amazed by the amount of chatter this set has generated and will be curious to see how it all develops down the road.

 

It's the sign of any market that is being run up due to speculation and flipping. It will come down. I predict that you won't get much relevant discussion on it however as any comments will be to discredit anyone who has a different opinion. Just in this short topic there are already comparisons to doom sayers and "whiners".

 

I don't know. I suspect the price will settle in somewhere within $200 of where it's at now.

 

I believe the contrarian point of view can be applied to just about any type of market, not only equities. It's really a commentary on human nature as much as anything. People tend to buy into hype and they love to follow the herd. This phenomenon explains why they line up at WalMart and trample each other at 5:00 in the morning on Black Friday to save a few bucks. It explains why people were buying houses they couldn't afford, and consequently bidding real estate through the roof in 2004-2006. It's why everyone including their cab-driver was buying tech stocks at their peak in 1999-2000. It's one of the reasons Gold has exploded in value in the last few years (we may have a ways to run on this one, but no sane person will deny we are in a bull market). Companies spend millions on advertising to leverage off the herd mentality.


If you can understand this dynamic, and postion yourself to sell what/when the herd is buying, and buy what/when the herd is selling, it makes it a lot easier for you to buy low and sell high and thus realize a profit.

At this moment, it's much better to be selling these ASE 25th Anniv sets than buying them. Currently demand is far greater than supply. There will be a time after the hype, when demand will die down for these. My hunch is that might be a better time to buy a set if you don't already own one.

 

I ordered one set and am very happy to have it in my collection. I hope those who ordered 5 and wish to profit from it do so. IMO, you had better act fast. I do not see these sets greatly increasing in value any more over time, unless you get them graded MS70/PF70. Millions of people do not collect ASEs. Many people stack raw ASEs as bullion. If you are a hardcore ASE collector you got in on 10/27 or had someone get it for you. If there are millions of diehard ASE collectors out there that have to get every issue, then why is it that there are so, so, so many proof ASEs from 1986 to present out there in the marketplace and also plenty of 20th anniversary sets out there as well. Flippers/speculators are selling to other flippers/speculators right now driving up the price. The smart people will get their profit and move on. Some will actually lose money when all is said and done. ASE collectors will ultimately determine the value of this set in the long-run. TC

 

And a contrarian viewpoint could be that there's 10 pages worth of them on ebay and there will never be this large of a supply for sale again at the same time. If prices are staying high with this much supply, what happens when the supply dries up? Or should we assume that supply like this will never dry up? If somebody bought a set for $700 to re-flip at a later time, I don't think they're going to turn around and list it for $500 unless they're starving. That is what some keep implying. That all these people buying are buying at $700+ to re-flip! They going to re-list them for $400 or $1400?

 

Yeah, the hype could and probably will force the price of this set higher than it should be, but IMO we aren't even close to over valuing this set yet - with so many on the market, the price may be depressed, if demand stays strong. If you think it's currently over priced at $700 to $800, then you believe a fair price will be closer to the 2006 set, which has only one key date, not two, and has a mintage 2.5 times the 2011 set. Time will tell, but my sets will sit for a few years to see where the price settles, as the potential is there for greater prices than today.

 

Here are HSN prices for a 69 and a 70 graded set:

http://www.hsn.com/collectibles/201...set_p-6633278_xp.aspx?web_id=6633278&ocm=sekw

http://www.hsn.com/collectibles/201...set_p-6633277_xp.aspx?web_id=6633277&ocm=sekw

I would divide these prices in half to get a fair market future value, so $750 for a 69 set and $1500 for a 70 set. It really turned my stomach to see them peddling 400 of these sets last night. TC

 

You have a stronger stomach than I do TC; I couldn't have watched that carnage for very long. For what it's worth, Modern Coin Mart expects to have pricing for their sets posted by Tuesday. They should be less than HSN. Fun, fun.

 

Don't buy those ones. Wait until they come out with the set layered in pure presentation 24k gold. Those will be super rare.

 

I saw that the other night also. What I wondered about was how that the HSN got 400 ms-70 s? I have not recieved my one set yet, and maybe I am just too mistrustful, but I would not send it out unopened in order to get the first strike or whatever designation they are marketing. My mistrust is that they would cherry pick out the best coins and send me back the leftovers.

I will be looking forward to seeing what grades collectors here will be getting on the sets they sent in.

I have heard that most specially handled coins such as this set will get 67s and 68s, that one in ten will get a 69 and one in a hundred will get a 70, that must mean that if that ratio holds hsn got 40% of the mintage of these coins from the mint? so if it is not one in a hundred but one in ten that is still 4000 sets that they must have gotten to send in.

 

LOL, I guess they are giving you an impressive label for your money.

 

The "value" of the 25th Silver Sets is directly related to the number of people who collect Silver Eagles.

The Mint will produce approx. 42 Million silver eagle bullion coins this year. The Mint has already sold over 800,000 Proof Silver eagles in addition to 200,000 uncirculated silver eagles. This should indicate that a lot of folks are collecting Silver Eagles, thus the high demand for the 25th Anniversary set.

As the demand for Silver Eagle bullion continues to escalate, so does the number of people who probably begin to collect the Proof and Uncirculated versions. The collector versions are feeding off the bullion collectors. I know that is how I got hooked :>)

I don't see the feeding frenzy for silver bullion slowing any time soon. Our Political "leaders" will continue to fuel the fire by continuing to do very little.

I therefore, believe that the Collector Versions of the Bullion coins will also continue to appreciate because of increasing PM prices and additional collectors who Need the two key dates.

Again, I would like to thank the US Mint for creating a very attractive Silver Anniversary Set. The appreciation in price of this set and the other Collector Silver Eagles I own is an added benefit to the beauty of the design, and craftsmanship of their production. I really like the Silver eagle coin.

 

42 million silver eagles are for bullion buyers, not coin collectors. It remains to be seen how many bullion buyers will be willing to pay 5x-10x spot for a silver coin.

 

You make a point but you can't leave out 800k proofs and 200k uncs which are the collector editions of the eagles. I have no idea how many collectors bought the million coins, but it does suggest they are ample. I think releases like these bring out more interest in the series. The one thing I think that might hurt them is if the continue to roll them out for too many more years. That might create fatigue in current collectors and make it too intimidating for new collectors to believe they'll ever be able to complete a set.

 

Yes, I realize that 42 million is for Bullion, but I got hooked on paying a premium for ASE after opening my first tube of Bullion coins. I was amazed at how attractive this coin is, and began collecting PF69 versions.

My point is that there is a large collector base for the silver eagle coins, because of how many people buy the bullion version, and the number of people buying the bullion version is increasing each year, thus increasing the number of collectors of Proof and Unc. versions.

As an investor in bullion ASE, the premium for the collector versions did not seem that great. I do confess that I can not bring myself to purchase a 1995W in PF69. That premium is too high for me.

I would pay a premium for the 2011 RP & S versions, but not for the full sets, because the other three coins are readily available at modest premiums over spot. I'm glad that I got two sets for free (after selling my other three sets).

 

I don't. The events that have surrounded this coin's release, the profiteering, coin flipping, etc are probably going to drive more people off than attract them to it. It's not the only coin out there.

 

Aside from errors, Is there anything modern that has a chance of becoming valuable? The release of everything is announced so profiteering and flippers will always be there. Every release is hyped and graded for profit. Key dates used to be something, High grades used to be something. Limited editions are about all that's left. Coin collecting has changed.