25th Anniversary Silver Eagle Set PRICE WATCH

Based on an earlier post, Apmex buy price is negotiable.

 

Log in or Sign up to hide this ad.

I am thinking this whole thing is not that difficult and can be summarized in 1 sentence: if you are seller, do it sooner; if you are a buyer, do it later.

 

Looks like prices are already headed back down as there have been a number of 0 bid sets this morning.

 

We may see this as a continuing trend. I know I have said this before, but this set is really not that special, as 60% of the coins offer nothing new, 20% offer something that has been offered once before and 20% offer something that has been offered many times before, but this time it happens to have a different mint mark. How special is all of that really? Is it really worth all of the hype when you break it down objectively?

Of course, it is a nice set to have and I have a set on order, but let's face it, it's not the holy grail. Fortunately, we human beings have a pretty short attention span and it might just be the reality that the focus is moving away from this set and onto the next bigger, better mousetrap, whatever that may be.

 

This doesn't make sense. There's a mad rush to sell thousands of them right now. What happens when they've settled out and there's only half a page of them or less for sale down the road? When the market is saturated, it would seem that would NOT be the time to sell.

Regardless of the S and the others, I think you have to ask the simple question of what the reverse proof alone will be worth? As a *collector*, NOT a flipper, I gladly bought an '06 rev. PF last year for $200. Four years after they were issued because I missed out.

Ok, the 2011 is 2.5x more rare. So is it really a stretch to think the 2011 reverse proof alone will be worth $500 or more? Now consider the S. If that's only worth $100 (maybe low at that) then the set should be worth no less than $750 IMHO. That should be the floor. If the S wasn't included, I'd adjust that down. If there was another rare one involved, I would adjust it up. This does not include the desirability of the set being a 25th anniversary set.

Just looking at it logically. Not that I feel collectors deserve to be pinched one way or the other. The market will decide based on how many people have to have them.

Its very possible that 40k people or less hold all of these right now. There may be 10x this many people who are going to want one eventually. Maybe 5 years from now. Will there be 9 pages of them for sale on ebay at that time? No. That's why I say people are foolish letting them go now. This should be the most desirable ASE set to date and for some time. If they come out with a 30th, then there will be people who want that and the last two. It will probably refresh demand all over again.

 

well said, treehugger. Anyone remember the First Spouse Gold coins, or the 5 oz ATB hockey pucks?

seem like yesterday's news to me

 

LOL! They haven't even shipped from the mint yet!!

Oh well. I'm done.

 

Not sure I agree with that. There have been 805,897 ASE Proofs sold so far this year which speaks to the number of collectors interested in this series. Although there can only ever be 30,125 collectors with a complete set of ASEs, the series is clearly extremely popular and those who don't have the 1995-W will still want to keep their sets otherwise complete.

Saying that 1 coin has been done before, and another has been offered many times before but this one has a different mint mark, seems an odd position for a collector to take? The 1893-S Morgan had been done before, and was done the same year with a different mint mark, but collectors of that series would still give their right arm for one. An extreme example, and I'm not trying to equate the two valuation-wise so please don't misunderstand (I wish!).

JMHO but what we're seeing with Ebay prices right now is a dearth of buyers who don't trust pre-sales (those who do probably already bought) and a glut of sellers, many of whom may be overextended on credit cards and need to sell NOW. That will work itself out in the next several weeks and then we'll get an idea of the worth of real, in hand sets.

One last thought: we may also be seeing a "Comex" type situation where flippers are flipping sets that they themselves bought in pre-sale auctions before 10/27. Therefore there may well be phantom supply on Ebay. What remains to be seen is how many actual sets end up on the market once shipping starts versus how many are tucked away sealed in safes and closets or shipped off to dealers.

 

Vess,

You may be right, but we are just stating our opinions. Given the fact there is no known person alive who can consistently predict the future, that is the beauty of discussion.

I also purchased a 69-grade 2006 reverse proof earlier this year for $200.00. I would make 2 comments on what you said, though. First, I think you are being overly generous in assigning a 2.5X value factor to the 2011 reverse proof over the 2006, as the 2011 is not the first year of issue. Also, the selling price of the 2006 Anniversary Set has actually been declining over the years. It was higher than the current average of $370.00 at 1 time.

 

Anything like this will bubble at first, settle and then if deserving will work it's way up in value. Yes after distribution the 2006 spiked, dropped and has been working it's way up. $370.00 on an original price of $100 over a 5 year period is a pretty damn good return, and I would not expect to see it plummeting anytime in the future. That particular set has shown resilience in a variety of silver price markets, as this one will also.

Personally I am not concerned, when the day comes when i want to move some of my 2011 set's I will not lose money. As the set's get broken up and the flippers go, these original sets in original packaging will shrink and over time the price will begin a steady climb over time. This is the bullion forum and in fact is more directed towards the investors, and just like with stocks or any other investment there are always those looking for the quick buck (or flip) but fail to see the longer term potential. Knowing with almost 100% certainty that this set is not going to go below the $299.00 price I paid gives me enough patience as an investor to see the potential gains 5-10 years from now and not worry about the next 2 months.

 

So, you think prices will drop by 50% of where they are now ($600)? That would mean prices for the 2011 set will be $300 (original issue price) and lower than the 2006 set. I'd say no way.

 

Agreed. It's a nice return. However to put it into perspective, a $100 investment in gold bullion in 2006 would be worth $328 now. Similarly $100 in silver bullion at that time would now be worth $366.

So in terms of a 5 year investment, it's nothing spectacular given the opportunity cost. Of course there are other reasons for holding the coin over bullion. The reverse proof is a nice coin as well.

 

There is currently $165 worth of silver in this set, so prices won't drop below that. However in terms of additional numismatic value, IMO, there wont be much beyond the 2 unique coins in the set.

 

True, unless silver drops. So, what do you think the numismatic value is? I didn't follow the 2006 set, but did it drop along with the economy, as did many other keys with large numismatic values? Either way, the numistmatic value of the 2011 set based on the lower value of the 2006 set should be north of 1k.

 

Whether the Mint has shipped them yet is irrelevant. The point is many people who were interested in them and didn't get them are not willing to spend crazy money for them at this time in the secondary market and have moved on to their next item of interest. Usually after the "I can't live without this" layer of people get their item, the price moves towards it true level. We saw it most recently with the ATB "pucks" and I think we'll see it again with this set. I'm not saying it won't go up again sometime in the future, but I think a person who is interested in purchasing 1 of these would do well to wait a while and let the price drop after the initial hype has subsided.

 

10-11% a year simple interest is just fine with me. As you state $100 in gold would be worth $328 and $100 in bullion would be $366, I would say that particular set held it's own in the market place with it's competitors.

 

Actually SQ that particular set does not move very much with the swings in the PM market, it was priced realatively the same when silver was $18 as it was at $40. Seems to march to it's own drum as a numismatic versus bullion.

 

Those are products that nobody wanted, and still don't want that the mint attempted to shove down collectors' throats. Bad comparison IMO.

 

Good news! I just looked up the price history for the 2006 set, it drop at the end of 2008, along with the economy, so it should recover when the economy does. So, what we're talking are prices potentially much higher for the 2006 set (as well as the 2011 set) in a good economy.

 

If nobody wanted them explain to me how the first 4 of FS gold issues all sold out the first day of sales? That's the entire issue of 160,000 for the year 2007. The 5oz. ATBs have also been a frenzied item. All of these sold out within hours of being offered. What do you mean nobody wants them?

Better for you to say "flavor of the month", but that would be exactly what my analogy said.