What is the 2011 25th Anniversary ASE set really worth?

How about this, rarity is relative. Regardles of what you call it, rare, scarce, a key, we know from history what a collector is willing to pay (1k to 2k for the 2011 set).

 

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Would have to agree 100% on your analysis. Demand has absolutley nothing to do with rarity. The 1995-w coin may cost $3,000 (down significantly from $5,000 a few years ago), but at any time since the coin was minted, if a collector REALLY wanted one, all he needed was money and the coin would have been in hand within 72 hours. Quarter seems to have confused EXPENSIVE with rarity. Some (though not all) rare coins are expensive, and some though certainly not all expensive coins are rare. In the case of anything having to do with ASE, the term "rare" is only something a hukster on television should be using to describe them.

 

That statement has been proven wrong time and time again with modern issues. One example that comes to mind is the Jackie Robinson $5 Commem. Wasn't a popular issue, few ordered it, making it the lowest mintage $5 commem, then many more had to have it, driving the price way up. Another example is each year's issue of circulating coinage. Many watch these mintages throughout the year and drive the prices up accordingly, like the 2009 dime and nickel.

 

Given what people are saying about potential future value of the 25th anniversary set regarding mintage and demand, the ATB P 5 ounce coins may be sleepers (especially since the price has been reduced). TC

 

+1

Given the demand and sellouts of these issues when the price was $50 more and the household limit was 1, hard to believe there aren't first day sellouts, now that the price has been reduced and the household limit is 5. Guess attention has been diverted to the 25th Ann. Set (for now). And, probably many don't realize the limit has been raised to 5, making them easier to speculate on.

 

"Demand has absolutley nothing to do with rarity."

What you have proven is that when demand exceeds supply then prices will rise. But you have not proven that a rare item causes demand to rise. In the case of the Jackie Robinson coin, the rarity of the coin never changed. Only when demand changed did the price rise.

The forumer you were responding to is correct.

At the moment for the 25th Anniversary, we only know that demand was high when the mint issued the coin and most of that demand seems to be by people looking to sell for profit (based on comments here).

 

The point is, more people demanded the $5 Robinson once they saw the rairty, thus rarity created demand that wasn't there before. And, the initial lack of demand, created the rarity.

As for the 25th Ann. Set, we know that many collect ASE's, enough to set the prices were they are for the 1995W and the 2006 set, thus one can expect similar demand from collectors for the 2011 set.

 

Darn! You just talked me into ordering 2 more Mt. Hoods! They're the 2010's with the low mintage (27,000).

 

But the rarity of the Robinson coin never changed.

On the other hand the exact opposite happened with the ASE. Flippers bought up this coin with the notion that real collectors will pay a premium to purchase this coin. However there is a possibility these collectors might decide the price was driven up too high by this speculation and decide instead to let the price fall off before attempting to buy one. This has been a great strategy for the 2006 issue of the coin since the price has fallen from it's peak. If you think the 2006 coin is an example for this coin, then why won't people wait for the price to fall?

 

True. The '06 has fallen in price from it's initial "flipper" offering but it still commands a premium. Not like the '99 silver proof set that cascaded downward after the State Quarters program ended. I'm still "smarting" after that one......

 

What does change have to do with it? The rarity was affected by demand and then the rarity affected demand and thus prices.

 

But you have to admit, the 99 silver proof set had a mintage that was 8x what this 25 anniv. set is. I had a feeling it was over priced all along.

I think the moment of truth for these is going to come in late November, early December. Maybe all the way to Christmas. Ebay is undoubtedly going to get flooded with thousands of these sets over this time. Although, I think 10 years from now, it's doubtful there will be much more than a handful for sale on ebay at any given time and they will probably carry a higher premium than they will this November/December. I think all the panic caused by the flippers themselves to have to flip at the same time ends up hurting everybody. If there's seemingly never ending pages and pages of them, it will eventually depress the going prices.

 

I understand what you're saying about the 2006 set, but my value projection for the 2011 set is based on current "settled" prices for the 1995W and 2006 set. Who knows where the 2011 set price is going to go with the flippers as sets begin to dry up. Who knows for sure where the prices will end up for the 2011 set, a projection is only a SWAG.

 

Originally Posted by Vess1

But you have to admit, the 99 silver proof set had a mintage that was 8x what this 25 anniv. set is. I had a feeling it was over priced all along.

I think the moment of truth for these is going to come in late November, early December. Maybe all the way to Christmas. Ebay is undoubtedly going to get flooded with thousands of these sets over this time. Although, I think 10 years from now, it's doubtful there will be much more than a handful for sale on ebay at any given time and they will probably carry a higher premium than they will this November/December. I think all the panic caused by the flippers themselves to have to flip at the same time ends up hurting everybody. If there's seemingly never ending pages and pages of them, it will eventually depress the going prices.


+1

 

I felt the same Vess. Yet I still "bit" at the time. Shame on me for not waiting it out.

Now, on the ASE's? "Bite" now. I don't think they're tumbling anytime soon. Especially with rumors (unfounded) that the series may be coming to an end. If that were to be I do believe that these particular "eagles" would gain in value. Just a lowly collectors opinion.......

 

Look at it this way, all the 1992 to present silver proofs are under valued.

 

Hope you're right......

 

I'd like to talk about why the 'supply' of these coins will help contribute to the value of these coins. I believe there were approximately 45,000 Mint orders after the sellout, correct? This means the effective mintage is much less that 100,000 because so many collectors AND investors will receive sealed packages with five sets. Ask yourself a question, how many buyers do you think will rush to grab the box cutter and open their sealed mint packages? I believe that the effective mintage for these coins will be closer to 50-75,000 during the first year, maybe longer. Just think, what if only 50,000 people control the key coins from these sets? The prices will surely soar.

Responses?

 

You make a good point but I was thinking. In between these "real rare" mint offerings are the common ones that are made "rare" by effective marketing. Consider the supplemental San Francisco Eagle strikes(no mint mark) that were slabbed. As long as every other mint offering is hyped and amazingly bought in to then understand that some of the momentum of genuine rarity winds up being diluted by the previous "rare" flavors of the month.

 

"S" less "S" eagles are a joke.