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October 4 Sales Update

Silver Proof set sales as of 04 October, 2011...


2010 Silver Proof Set sales: 351 for a total of 573,620
2011 Silver Proof Set sales: 182 for a total of 461,766

The lowest mintage of any modern Silver Proof set was 1995 (679,984). The average weekly sales figures needed by the end of the year (12 weeks left) to equal that mintage are...

2010 Silver Proof Set: (679,984 – 573,620) / 12 = 8,864
2011 Silver Proof Set: (679,984 – 461,766) / 12 = 18,185


The Mint's 2010 sales page has a countdown timer posted...with today showing 83 days remaining; that's 'just' 1,281 sets a day needed to equal 1995's volume.

 

Interesting article here about the 2010 sets.

 

Sounds familiar...

He makes a good point, though...there may not be an immediate "premium pop" when the sets go off sale. It may take a few years before these sets are "discovered". The 2009 Mint set should be another good one...but it still hasn't gone up, yet. No worries...the 2009 satin Lincolns will be a winner!

 

Thanks for keeping up with the totals! :hail:

I just got back last night and trying to catch up. I can't believe the Mint suspended sales for "repricing", but put them back on sale at the same price :rolling:...what are they doing? Silver dropped 25%...I thought FOR SURE prices would drop to $59.95 and $62.95, respectively.

Another interesting event was the inversion of 2010/2011 sales last week...meaning, more 2010 sets (351) sold than 2011 sets (182). I suspect that's likely due to the MintNewsBlog article. It'll be interesting to see if this trend continues this coming week.

The Mint "says" they shifted the release of annual sets so collectors can buy them throughout the year inscribed on the coins. I think the "real" reason they did this was for inventory control. Since the coins can't (by law) be minted outside the calendar year inscribed on the coin, the Mint had to estimate (and produce) the number of sets they "think" will be sold (through August) before the end of December. Now that they've shifted to a January to January schedule, only one (1) month's sales needs to be estimated.

The 2011 sets went on sale at the end of January so I expect they will go off sale at the end of January...when the 2012 sets go on sale. If we accept and "end of January" off-sale estimate for the 2011 sets, we should probably add four (4) weeks when projecting needed weekly sales for the 1995/2011 comparison...

2010 Silver Proof Set: (679,984 – 573,620) / 12 = 8,864
2011 Silver Proof Set: (679,984 – 461,766) / 16 = 13,639

If the Mint goes back to ending each year's sales when the next year's sales begins...the 2011 sets will be extremely low!! The poor economy, high prices, Christmas coming, and all the other Mint products available could keep 2011 sales below 500,000!! Just imagine...2011 final sales of something like 485,000!! ...and it will take sales of 1500 sets/wk (through January) just to get to that number.

 

The mint just got to saying they are sending me my 4 replacements for 2010. I really *HOPE* that these sets I get are good and not spotted on the president coins, because I have decided I can't afford to send any back.

 

That's a good idea. Since the 'last opportunity' page of the mint's web site isn't showing a date for the 2011's, it is implied that those will be sold after the start of the year. Halting them once the 2012 is out sounds about right to me.

One of my local shops still wants $75 for 2011, but to my great surprise, they started selling the 2010's at silver plus a $6 premium...I almost fell over. Picked up five at that rate. Can't wait 'till they do that to the 2011's too! :devil:

 

I hope you get some nice sets...it's a terrible feeling when you open the package and find sub-standard quality.

PCGS offers a "Bulk" grading service where a dealer can buy hundreds of sets and submit with a minimum grade (e.g. MS68 or PF69). As long as 60% of the coins grade at the minimum grade or higher, the graded coins are slabbed at $12/coin and the lower grade coins are returned (unslabbed) at no charge. I suspect bulk dealers do this and repackage/return the unslabbed coins.

The Mint changed their return policy to seven (7) days to keep the Big Boys from doing this, but I suspect it still happens. The Mint will take returns anytime as long as you notify them within seven days of your intentions. I suspect that may be why some sets are found with a great concentration of questionable coins. If PCGS really cared about the hobby, they would come up with ways to prevent this type of fraud. However, I suspect they offer their "bulk" service specifically to profit from it.

 

Looks like we're back to business as usual; sales figures are back to where they were before all the suspensions of sales; 2011 sales are WAY up compared to last week! The only difference is that the clock is 'a tick'n!

An interesting point...silver dropped 25%, but the Mint didn't adjust prices. Hmmm...maybe the Mint knows something we don't know...meaning, silver is heading back up over the next 4-8 weeks. Might be a signal to make a short term silver trade...or not (just say'n).


Silver Proof set sales as of 11 October, 2011...

2010 Silver Proof Set sales: 346 for a total of 573,966
2011 Silver Proof Set sales: 3,450 for a total of 465,216

The lowest mintage of any modern Silver Proof set was 1995 (679,984). The average weekly sales figures for 2010 sets needed by the end of the year (11 weeks left) to equal that mintage is...

2010 Silver Proof Set: (679,984 – 573,966) / 11 = 9,638

The average weekly sales figures for 2011 sets needed by the end of January 2011 (15 weeks left) to equal that mintage are...

2011 Silver Proof Set: (679,984 – 465,216) / 15 = 14,318

​

 

Maybe the people at the mint are concerned they will have to continue suspending silver coins for repricing if silver keeps fluctuating, or if they lower it, people will order, but then when they have to raise it again, the sales will go flat.....
Could be they are just taking their chances that once October is over, silver prices will go up anyways, so they need to just keep the product out there for buying as much as possible.

 

I was thinking maybe Ben Bernanke was giving the Mint some "insider information".

 

I was thinking...if we take this past Tuesday's weekly sales numbers (which were hugely in favor of the 2011 sets) and extrapolate them out to the "believed" off-sale dates for each of these sets, we get...

2010 (end of December Off-Sale): 346 * 11 = 3806 ... 573,966 + 3806 = 577,772
2011 (end of January Off-Sale): 3,450 * 15 = 51,750 ... 465,216 + 51,750 = 516,966

I would have thought the 2011 sets would catch up with the 2010 sets, but it doesn't look that way...assuming they go off-sale when the 2012 sets come out. This week's 2011 sales figures seem a bit high...I predict this next week's sales figures will be about the same for the 2010 sets (~350) and the 2011 sets will settle down (~1800). Just a guess...we'll see.

 

What kind of indication has the Mint given that the 2011 set sales will end before either a sellout or Dec 2012?

These low sales numbers might just be the new norm because: a) the economy is terrible (and will continue to be terrible), b) the Mint is producing more and more products, and c) they have been raising prices.

The 1995 silver proof sets don't seem to fetch a great premium. They go for $40-50 on ebay. However, the 1999 silver proof quarters set does still sell for a premium over the other annual state quarter sets.

 

Good questions and points...:thumb:

1. The 1995 silver proof sets don't seem to fetch a great premium. They go for $40-50 on ebay.

True...in fact, I bought a set on eBay just last night for $47. Considering that they contain less than $20 worth of silver, that's not a bad premium. They used to sell for more, but the market has settled down.

2. The 1999 silver proof quarters set does still sell for a premium over the other annual state quarter sets.

True again. However, I suspect that's mostly due to collectors searching for the elusive PF70 UCAM Delaware quarter. Those sets have since settled down from $300/set to around $120/set today.

3. These low sales numbers might just be the new norm because: a) the economy is terrible (and will continue to be terrible), b) the Mint is producing more and more products, and c) they have been raising prices.

True, true, and true...the only point I might take issue with is the "(and will continue to be terrible)" part. It may take 20 years, but eventually we'll get this mess behind us and prosperity will reign once again (for a while, anyway).

That's the way it's happened for thousands of years. I don't buy into the "This time it's different" mantra. If you look back at the key date coins over the past few hundred years, you'll see that many of them occurred during times of economic strife...for all the reasons you offer. A hundred years from now our great, great, grandchildren will be saying to themselves...

"I wish I were alive back then...I could have bought the ultra-rare First Spouse coins on eBay for melt!!!" :rolling:

4. What kind of indication has the Mint given that the 2011 set sales will end before either a sellout or Dec 2012?

None, really...but they rarely do. What they have said is...

1. The 2010 Annual products will remain on sale through December 31, 2011
2. The 2011 Annual products will go on sale in January 2011.

http://news.coinupdate.com/us-mint-to-release-annual-sets-in-january-0491/
http://news.coinupdate.com/release-dates-for-proof-set-mint-set-silver-proof-set-0596/

Prior to this, Annual products went on sale in August and went off sale the following August, just prior to the release of the next year's sets. The 2009 Silver Proof sets went off sale two (2) weeks prior to the 2010 release. This overlap of 2010/2011 sales is likely a one-time event...just to make the transition.

The Mint "says" the reason for the switch was to be more responsive to the "Collecting Public"...so they can buy the sets as birthday gifts throughout more of the year. I think the real reason is for "Inventory Control". I think they got tired of producing a bunch of sets by December 31st in hopes of selling them in the coming year...only to end up destroying the unsold coins. I suspect that's still a problem with the First Spouse coins.

If I'm right and Inventory Control was a factor in their decision to shift schedules, then they would lose any benefit by producing more sets than they can sell in a month...and competing with the new sets. Especially when they rarely overlapped the sets before...just doesn't make any sense (in my mind, anyway). :too-cool-for:

 

WOW!! Silver Proof set sales nearly DOUBLED this week!! :so-sad:

Silver Proof set sales as of 19 October, 2011...

2010 Silver Proof Set sales: 638 for a total of 574,604
2011 Silver Proof Set sales: 5,983 for a total of 471,199

The lowest mintage of any modern Silver Proof set was 1995 (679,984). The average weekly sales figures for 2010 sets needed by the end of the year (10 weeks left) to equal that mintage is...

2010 Silver Proof Set: (679,984 – 574,604) / 10 = 10,538

The average weekly sales figures for 2011 sets needed by the end of January 2011 (14 weeks left) to equal that mintage are...

2011 Silver Proof Set: (679,984 – 471,199) / 14 = 14,913

​

 

Except the Mint doesn't work this way. Orders are served out of a fulfillment center which orders production from the respective mint that produces the coin. They will continue to sell last years issue in the next year until supply is sold out. They are not destroying coins.

 

That doesn't square with having a final sales date as the Mint does have/enforce with 'long in the tooth' items. What is done with the extra supply for such products?

They could, of course, just send them to me for 'caretaking' if they like, but I'm just not that persuasive...
:ninja:

 

I don't believe that's a true statement...I would like to see a link to back that up. I've read where thousands of First Spouse coins have been destroyed. The law specifically states that the First Spouse coins are only sold during the period of the associated Presidential dollar. Sales dropped considerably from 2007 to 2009. I traded correspondence during that time with Paul Gilkes, Coin World Staff Reporter, during that period. I was trying to find out what the Mint did with all the unsold First Spouse coins. Coin World assured me the coins were destroyed and the dies defaced. I reported on this in Coin Talk at the time.

Additionally, by law, US coins can only be issued "during the year inscribed on the coin". This means that the Mint has to estimate the number of coins and sets they "think" will be sold into the next year. If the proof sets are sold August-to-August (as they have since the 50 States Quarter Program began), the Mint had to guess how many coins to produce by December. The proof set sales ended when the new sets were released (brief overlaps were rare) and all unsold sets destroyed.

If you know differently, please post a link and I'll graciously tip my hat and put my foot in my mouth. :foot-mouth:

 

Certainly.

Maybe you should get some Texas Pete hot sauce to flavor that toe jam. Here is the direct link to the US Mint website where you can still buy the 2010 Mary Todd Lincoln First Spouse coin. (an excellent coin)

http://tinyurl.com/3gdjky7

The law you cite means the coin can't be produced after the year inscribed on the coin. It doesn't mean they can't continue to sell coins that were issued in 2010.

I've heard of the example of coins being destroyed that you mentioned, but this wasn't the Mint that did it. It was rumored to be a certain nameless gold vendor who bought the first 3 issues coins at spot and had them melted into bullion. These coins were, for a short while, a bargain for bullion buyers because coin flippers messed up on them. These days they are doing very good for the numismatic buyer.

 

Without getting into what will happen to the coins (since I don't have a clue about that), per the US Mint (http://catalog.usmint.gov/webapp/wc...storeId=10001&catalogId=10001&identifier=7600) the 2010 silver proof set will not be sold after Dec. 30, 2011 at 5:00 pm (EST). Since the 2011 sets aren't listed on that page, it looks like there will be more time to buy them.