What happen to the Silver Market?

While it could be possible, I don't think it's plausible. I'll give you all the link to the entire article and in the top portion, before he goes into his links and other commentary, there is some fantastic info provided. He points out the the entire inventory of the Comex was traded on Friday, so Jim is right, there are very few that are actually in it to take delivery, they are just speculators. If they were actually in it to take delivery, there wouldn't be any silver left in the Comex by Dec.
http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/

Happy reading...

 

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You are partly correct. In Perth Mint's Lunar series they have 2 sizes in silver that have a mintage limit, the 1 oz and 10 kg, the rest are open to buy based on purchases. The limit on the 1oz silver is 300,000 and IIRC the 10kg is 50. That stated the 2008 1oz mouse that you see for sale was not sold out in its mintage year, but they had the ability to go back and remint more. In fact this year they went back and minted a lot of the lunar II and kookaburras in 1kg sizes due to demand. I'm not sure if they needed special legislation from Western Australia govt or how it was handled, but they got done what they needed to go back and mint more in the 1kg size of older issues. From what I've gathered on the other sizes, 1/2, 2, 5, 10oz and 1/2 kg, when the mintage year is up they are no longer eligible to be made and the mintage of them stops and is fixed at that point. You can go to the Perth mint website and at the top of the page is a bullion tab, click on that tab and it will bring up a new page with a sidebar that has bullion mintages available. It gives you all kinds of great info about how many of what size were made, hence some of the premiums. The serious premium for the lunar II series right now is the 2oz and 5 oz mouse, good luck finding them for sale, and please sit down before looking at the price....

 

Those Australian Silver Kangaroos are not cheap either. They to have very low mintages and asking prices are rising. Beautiful pieces with great detail. Love em.

 

I've read a lot of Casey's stuff in the past, and I'm unimpressed by the depth of research, such as assuming all trading is speculation and not trading around a physical position that doesn't necessarily reside in a Comex warehouse. It is dangerous to believe someone who makes their living by selling you the opinion you want to hear, but that is what many of these writers do. I know they are very convincing, but what they say doesn't coincide with what I see people doing in the real world.

 

I'm not foolish enough to read any of the commentators as gospel, many of them are cheerleaders trying to rally the fans to makes some noise or sell you on their stuff. There are parts of his commentary that are very solid, most of which are the sales reports and comex reports. You can see exactly who is doing what with the actual metal, not the smoke and mirrors of 180,000 trades and nary an ounce of physical going to anybody. In the end, it is just an opinion, that allows others to form thier own, and you can get many of them pro and con, so dyodd is critical.

 

Great advice, I picked up 68 circulated Franklin halves yesterday at 11.50 a piece. A week ago, I had a hard time finding them below $15. It's a great time to buy in my estimation even of the market still has some correction happening.

 

Very interesing dynamic. This would explain why you can get a 1 oz Year of the Mouse for half as much as a 1/2 oz. I still don't get why the Dragon is priced so high if you can find it, and sold out on the Perth Mint's site since it should currently be in production. I e-mailed them asking about it yesterday, but haven't heard back yet.

 

There isn't any silver left at Sprott Money, at least until they get more delivery which will probably be today.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn..._Temporarily_Runs_Out_of_Physical_Silver.html

I would imagine the COMEX will be the last to experience this unless position limits are bound by a percentage of total production (see Ted Butler) which would help inhibit mass amounts of open interest from overshadowing the physical market dynamics. I would hope that this recent price move flushed all the paper longs out of the way so the strong hands holding physical for the longhaul can build up the new base.

 

The real reason it costs over $100 from the etailers is demand and hype. The lunarI dragon is about $125 or more, and was the one of the series that was the massive hit. When people call the dealers and the mint constantly 6 months in advance of the release that pretty much lets them know the demand will be ungodly. So, instead of allowing the flippers to make the profit, the dealers are now taking that slice of pie.

It may turn out to be the 2010 5oz atb all over again, but if you're looking for 1 as a collector, I'd just buy it and pay for it as opposed to hoping they drop.

 

I read the link. There's nothing there. A couple of years ago certain commentators began plagerizing a lot of Ted Butler's analysis of the commitment of traders without giving him credit because it's easier than doing a real analysis and gives you something new to write about every week. Great for lazy writers, dangerous for investors to take seriously.

 

He gives Mr. Butler full credit whenever he uses his stuff. Like I posted, you can find 10 pro for every 10 con on the manipulation and it is what it is. In the end, I don't think there is too much question that the silver market is manipulated, mostly for the bb to try to squeeze themselves out of thier current short position. Whether they do that now or later is the real question, IMO, and once they do that, if ever, we'll see what the market for silver really is. Right now you're going to see a whole lot of gun shy tech funds that won't touch it for a while. I think they're all going to move to Missouri and "show me" will be thier MO for a long time. It doesn't matter to me as I'm holding and buying, not selling, so the drop doesn't hurt my feelings one bit.

 

I've never seen an credible evidence that silver is manipulated. But there seems to be many people who use this as an excuse for their own trading erors. If it was manipulated, it wouldn't have risen 10X in price over the past dozen years, even outperforming gold from trough to peak. Even now it is 6X up. If the shorts have been trying to manipulate the price downward, they sure haven't done a very good job. But everyone is entitled to their own opinions.

 

That's quite a leap to assume that I trade in paper, because I don't. I stack, been doing that since about 2008 and haven't looked back. I don't know how you've made that kind of leap, but reality to me is there is or are all kinds of manipulations that happen inside comex, and they're as plain as day, all you need to do is look at the things that come out and make 1/2 of the leap you did with me making trading mistakes. Here's an easy one, silver lost about 20% of its value in 2 days, at the end of those 2 days comex released a memo that they were increasing margin requirements, why would that be if they weren't trying to manipulate the price? Think about that for a minute, silver loses 20% of its value in 2 days, then they release a memo about margin increase, I'm sure none of the members were aware of this before the fact...hahah good joke.

 

sorry double post...my bad

 

Umm, because they wanted to lower volatility of the market, something that they have a vested interest in doing? The last time they did it it was because the market was going up too fast, now they do it because it is going down too fast. Both directions are manipulation, huh?

If you are accusing insider trading, a felony, you should make sure you have some evidence. What you are doing is the same is accusing a man of murder because he happened to know a person who is now dead. Either way its defamation to accuse without any proof.

 

Umm, you should probably check your facts. They raised margin in May on the way down as well.

Did you see me name specific names? Do you have some proof of specific individuals I'm naming, or companies for that matter besides CME? I don't think you do, so maybe you should relax you attorney skills in this thread.

 

Here's the one proven example of manipulation that I've found:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Maguire_(whistleblower)

Even though the CFTC has 'failed to act', they have been supportive, in that Bart Chilton has publicly stated, as per:
http://www.teogathalaw.com/library/...rgan-and-HSBC-are-Manipulating-Silver-Prices/

Full news story from when the lawsuit was originally filed back in November 2010: http://www.hbsslaw.com/newsroom/?nid=1951


The other thing going on in this regard (less proven) is that the SilverCorp CEO has openly stated that they are being naked shorted by unknown persons trying to ruin their business:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Silvercorp-Turns-Corner-Short-iw-545340904.html?x=0

 

No one likes the idea of naked short selling, but,

Naked short selling is illegal in the US ( except for market makers under certain conditions), but it is not similarly illegal in many foreign markets. Some are more stringent than the US such as the Singapore market which has specified monetary penalties to the transacting party as well as the brokerage. The larger loophole, IMO, is that all of the markets have variable number of days for the stock to be declared as received or failed by brokers. In the US, smaller or more "loose" brokerages can use this time to have participants sell short with no stock to back it up ( naked). In the US it is 13 consecutive trading days. So with the right connections a person can short trade as "naked" for that period of time before the broker has a "fail to deliver" deadline and must close the transaction. With computerized markets , this seems generous. Thus it is very hard to demonstrate naked short selling unless counterfeit stock is delivered , as in Germany a few years back, or as some claim for AIG.

 

I hope silver goes down to at least $20 / oz. I've been wanting some of those 5oz ATB coins and they're almost within my price range!

 

I never said you trade in paper, so that's quite a leap on your part. If you want to continue to believe in manipulation, it is of no concern to me. Silver is a highly speculative commodity. This sort of thing happens from time to time in commodities futures. I have no idea whether some traders were operating with inside information, and neither do you. The fact that the drop in silver happened at the same time that other equities dropped is evidence to me that they did not. You are free to make your own interpretation.