silver....and we appear to be at $40 again!

I agree man, I would love silver to drop like a rock. The thought of buying large quantities of material I have recently become interested in overarches any desire to profit in silver holdings.

I think a lot of people are more PM investors, or have some PM and some coins, so they are talking about thier investment holdings and not their collections.

My thoughts on $2000 gold in five years, and $1600 today, being "normal" just come from adjusting early 20th century prices of gold and adjusting for inflation. Assuming 5% inflation, todays $1600 becomes $2000 (round numbers), in about 5 years.

 

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I agree with those numbers. Unfortunately for us collectors, I don't think it'll drop any time soon, but I gotta have hope.

 

I think we have seen a portion of a correction towards the debt ceiling passing, as the drop occurred just at the time of Obama's speech today about the proposal. There will be another correction IMO, when it finally passes. Thursday, we may see a move based on the Euro meeting, and I don't think anyone really knows how that will go. And the idea of normal being in the 1600 to 2000 range by the next 5 years, is possible if financial stability isn't established. There is still no sure thing in life, PM, and finance. PM actions are like dice games. If you don't call your roll in advance, you don't get creds.

 

I couldn’t had said it better myself. :yes:

The price of the 5oz ATB Uncirculated Collector’s Versions is killing my wallet.

 

I've never understood why collectors would want the price of their hobby to quadruple and be happy about it...thats insane.
Guy[/QUOTE]

+1

 

Comic books at $3.99 don't exactly make my day, but I wouldn't be a serious coin collector if not for the expectation of an increase in value, or more accurately the expectation of a loss in fiat purchasing power since that is what has happened consistently the last 100 years. Metal is shiny and cool to look at it, and I do like the designs, but it doesn't do much else for me besides provide peace of mind. I guess that makes me more of an investor than a collector when it comes down to it. Although I consider myself a hybrid in that regard.

I agree that the debt ceiling announcement is what caused the drop in dollar denominated metals today, but I don't think that will stop Moody's from downgrading as they've stated they will even if the debt ceiling is raised. When that happens I wouldn't be surprised to see another week like last week.

 

+1[/QUOTE]maybe the high prices will keep the Spouse mintages low

 

If the debt limit is raised, I wouldn't expect Moody's or S&P to downgrade US paper. Remember these companies depend on business from JP Morgan, MS, any firm that makes money off of derivatives or bonds. Much of the housing derivative problems were blamed on the high ratings that these rating companies blindly passed, as they were gathering in the premiums. Now is not the time for them to try and prove they can be tough, or they may find themselves in deep financial crud also, and few will be helping them out. I really don't expect them to lower the ratings, even if the debt ceiling wasn't raised myself, IMO. If Eurozone meetings this week goes well in solving their problems, and if you look at the CDS rates today, all of the eurozone countries improved except Greece. So I suspect some inside deals have been made and they ( except for Greece) may get something arranged. If both the credit limit is raised and the Eurozone and euro gets better, I expect 1550 Gold and 32-34 silver by Oct. 1 unless something else explodes financially
Jim

CDS: http://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750

 

I can't seem to find the original article I read that led me to my previous conclusion. This one is about as close as I can find. Although it supports your statement, it also touches on reasons why raising the debt ceiling could potentially not deter a downgrade due to other circumstances. At this point it's just speculation.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/econ...ating-even-if-debt-ceiling-is-raised-20110714

You make valid points though, and I am definitely rethinking my outlook on this.

 

MCO ~ Moody's is 102% owned by 367 institution type of investors and mutual funds. Here is the ownership list. Notice Warren Buffet's presence with over 12%. How many would suffer if the US bond rating was decreased and stuff dings Wall Street. Better to say ~ Who wouldn't suffer. Almost like expecting the Pentagon saying they will voluntarily cut their budget 10-20%. By the way today, they threatened to downgrade MD, NM, SC, TN, and VA.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=MCO+Major+Holders

 

Why is Birskshire listed as N/A under "major holders" on that list? Just curious as Warren is my boss and we were forced to sell him our company stock when he bought us and we were given Birkshire class 1 (privately held division) in it's place at 18% above sell, so I follow it's movements.
Guy

 

I'm somewhat schizophrenic about G&S prices myself. I'm really glad that I have what I do, most of it bought years ago. I've done a little selling of silver in the $35-$40 range (and alas, some lower). If PM dropped in half, I guess I'd feel bad that I hadn't sold some more. But I'd feel very good about being able to buy some more gold sovereigns, & US gold type coins.

I'm one of those people who looks at my 2 rolls of ASE's that I paid about $11 per coin for, & could think, "why didn't I buy a "monster box"? But I know that's defeatist thinking, & so I'm just glad that I bought those. I also have a couple of gold $20's that I bought near the top in 1979, that are only now worth maybe 2x what I paid......even G&S aren't a good buy if the price is too high, but there's a new crowd of PM investors that doesn't want to hear that......

But like you say, "Five years from now gold could be 2000, 3000", & that wouldn't surprise me either......it's complicated (duh).....

 

Everyone feels that way Woody, and thinks exactly in your terms. You think you bought at 11, but that was years ago so how much is that in todays dollars? Everyone wishes they bought at 11, or 4, etc, but what we cannot comprehend is that we, (myself included) are thinking of $11 in todays value, not then, and not what we COULD have invested in besides. You mention you bought gold in 1980 near $800. It makes you feel better now that nominally its double, but invested in most other options if would be MUCH greater today.

The two main culprits of this leading to bad thinking is nominal dollar terms and survivorship bias. You could have bought only winners in the past, but you could have also bought some losers as well, (even metals have not all went up equally, but this is more common with securities, but even coins are susceptible, you could have bought all BU bicentennial coins then). We ignore that we could have bought losers with "more money" invested just as easily as winning bets.

In short what I am saying is never kick yourself for what you didn't buy, be grateful for what you bought and try to make intelligent decisions going forward. Every one has wishful thinking, and while fun is also dangerous, since it makes you think you should do something drastic today.

Just some ramblings on investor psychology, (including myself).

Chris

 

The thought had crossed my mind.. if only I picked up some more 100 oz bars at $12. But yeah, I have to agree with medoraman. Be happy with what you've got, not what you don't, and even more so be happy silver has gone up since then instead of down.

 

Not now

 

nope, I'd rather it drop so i can buy even more

 

I am with you on that. I just meant I'm glad I haven't lost money on my initial purchase. I already backed the truck up in 2008 so I will be happy just having some regardless of where it goes as long as it doesn't go below $20. Although I would infer that the reason you want it to go down is so you can buy some in anticipation it will go back up? It sort of defeats the purpose of buying if it's going to lose value (unless you're like me and just want something physical that will have value indefinitely), but then if we knew that for a fact we'd all be rich.

 

my feeling is it will rise and fall over the decades and that's it's always good to have more.

 

Where do you plan on selling your silver? My local coin shop buys it for $1 under spot and I'm honestly not sure if I heard him correctly. I'm pretty sure I heard someone in this forum mention that coin shops buy silver for 40% under spot. I'm also horrible at math.