what exactly do we do?????

ok so I heard 2 things today and I honestly don't know what to think of them...

1st being the fed is thinking of doing QE3... so pm's could go up, up, and up more...


2nd being
going back to 1948 whenever the
the rolling 12 month GDP has dropped below 2% we've always had a recession 2-3 quarters later and currently we are at 2.3%...and people are starting to really lose confidence in the economy at at least so I heard...I also I heard talk of a recession might hit 1st quarter of 2012...


so last I knew when the recession that came in 2008 the bottom fell out of pm's... you guys think that could be rearing it's head again?


so I really wonder what to do... pm's crash or go sky high... :headbang::headbang::headbang:

 

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Nobody knows the future so it isn't worth trying to forecast it. It's a coin flip. PMs might go down or up for the reasons you state. Basically, the policy decision hasn't been made yet to inflate or deflate. It might be a good bet that first there will be inflation followed by the inevitable deflation that always occurs with excess debt.

As of today, PMs are still in a bull market, and that is the most important fact to keep in mind.

 

Latest I heard was gold could hit $30,000 oz. in five years or less.

 

This is pure speculation, but to me QE3 has always been on the table. Considering how QE1 and QE2 were life support, it seems to me the economy as it currently stands can't survive without further monetary easing, but with all the public distaste for wealth confiscation they have to wait until people ask for it.

Also, we are already in a depression, so I do not expect a recession in 2012. I base this on the fact that the total percentage of the US population that is unemployed is the highest it has ever been. Unemployment claims don't take into account people who aren't claiming. "But we only lost 390,000 jobs last month instead of 400,000 so things are getting better." Um, if anybody is buying that I've got some silver clad coins to sell for mere spot price.

It should be taken into account that the market does not respond to fundamentals as much as high frequency trading algorithms which dominate 90% of all trades. This is how a year's worth of silver production can be (and actually is) traded in a single day. QE3 can happen, and prices can still go down for this reason - until physical metal is in a shortage and then the paper will become worthless while the real thing becomes priceless. Of course prices wouldn't be as high as they are today without supply and demand factors playing a role, but if not for market interference you can bet they would be a lot higher.

So what do we do? Well what I do is keep as much cash as I might need, and put the rest into tangible goods, which ends up being silver after all other necessities have been accommodated. I will say that if you are going to keep wealth on hand you should have a way to protect (and transport) it, and even though you can eat gold you should probably have some healthier things to consume stored away.

 

I am thinking the only thing that has stopped QE3 from being announced is that until the debt limit is extended it will be foolish. Announcing QE3 now will cause many in congress to refuse to vote for the extension, and then what will they do?

 

I would agree with you if I thought Congress was autonomous. I do think you are on the right track in that they won't announce it until after the debt ceiling is raised, because if it isn't raised they'll have a hard time coming up with the money to buy the treasuries with.

 

You are in a recession that has not stopped . It very might well get worse before we see light.
Proof now exists in America ,that Capitalism is solid when left to the people. We can not protect all people in the world and forget our own citizens.We can not pay non Citizens Social Security Medicare and give food stamps.
Those are the simple items as much of this is common sense.
Have we created the problem ? Do we know the solution ?

 

Okay, let's say we do DEFAULT and do not raise the debt ceiling. What will really happen. Sure, no government worker, Social Security and Medicare and Medicaid payments get paid to say the least. . What happens next? People don't pay there bills, renters get evicted, food, gas, and heating prices rise. Banks do what? Close! Maybe, which means the whole country's financial system goes bankrupt. Savings are confiscated and wiped out. Debt goes out the window. So what else is new. That's happening now. There will be a recovery which might take maybe a year or two. We re-nationalize and consolidate and start over. How many of us would be left?? Would this be worse than what it is now?
Yes, but what are our choices? Keep printing and minting money and paying insurmountable interest payments and live like we are? I guess that's the lesser of all the evils.

 

The United States has destroyed its industrial base by sending it overseas. We are now in the process of destroying our intellectual base that created it by basically sending that work overseas with it. For less than the cost of the air conditioning for soldiers in Afghanistan, Obama shutdown the manned space program in the USA and now 1000s more very talented engineers, scientists, etc will be collecting carts at Walmart. (Fed considers these equivalent jobs)

The above facts are not disputed so this is a data point that we know. These are the kinds of jobs that create real wealth in the USA. Now that it is gone, and the government along with it's partners in the finance industry that made it happen, are left with printing money and debt as the only solutions to keeping the economy from collapse. Until, we get a set of politicians willing to stand up and say we are going to have to cut back more than the few social programs that are left, there is going to be QE to the N, until there is a currency collapse.

Medicare and SS are irrelevant. They are self funded and if congress would leave those funds alone, those programs could continue without issue for decades. The problem there is the GOP doesn't want either program, and Democrats have been stealing money from it. Yet changes here are nothing but a side show to distract from the above.

To the OP, there is no reason to believe, because of this, that Gold (not silver or any other PM) will not continue to rise.

 

?

so you believe that silver will rise?

 

I have no idea. The fundamentals behind Silver are completely different than those of Gold. No government holds silver as reserves, but plenty if not most hold gold. Same for the central bankers.

Gold is the hedge against the dollar. Silver isn't.

 

It's amusing that people just completely fabricate all sorts of disasters when in reality nobody knows what will happen. It isn't as though this is the first time this has happened, and we're still here. Almost every bad thing that could happen if the debt ceiling isn't raised will be a choice of government, not an outcome of the vote or the action of a free market. Keep this in mind.

 

oh, honest to god, stop it.

 

Gold and Silver have always been backed up by fear and indecision. Gold is for the rich, Silver is for the poor, Accumulating Silver and moving it to Gold is for the wise. In this economy you don't have to be rich to be scared, so I think silver will hold. We, as a people, have always done our best work with our backs against the wall. Will this country go bankrupt, possibly, but it will be Chapter 11 (reorganization) and we will end up stronger.

 

I completely agree, and have expected this to be one of the many detriments of globalization. This was all preventable and forseeable, and if you ask me because of those two reasons it was also deliberate.

This much is clear. Moody's intends to downgrade the US debt rating by one notch if we don't default, or multiple notches if we do. If we do default it will hasten our exit as the world reserve currency. Government spending will be prioritized, and many people will suffer without the aid of socialized programs they've come to depend upon. I don't anticipate a bank holiday as a direct result of this, but I do think that is coming as soon as the JPM shorts get busted. Back to my other comment about this being deliberate, if and when the dollar fails it will set the stage for a new global currency which was the intention all along, because you can't have global governmance without controlling the money of a nation. Just ask Mayer Amschel Rothschild. The pivotal point here is that if the USD loses world reserve currency status all the monetary easing we are doing will stay home instead of being exported, and it won't matter whether or not that helps pay off the national deficit because the average citizen will spend all their money just for basic necessities. In addition to the inflation we will take on the chin, nobody will flock to the USD as a safe haven.

 

Medicare is broke in 3 years, SS in 7. That is from the new report from their commissioners. No one has "stolen" from those funds, the cash was invested in US notes and interest paid. SS and Medicare and other entitlements ARE the problem. They are the trillion pound straw breaking the budget's back. Without reform of these two fiscal sanity is impossible in this country. SS used to pay benefits for a few years before expected life span, now its decades.

Yes, the current government has accelerated the demise, but make no mistake its entitlements that are wrecking the budget. We could have no military whatsover and be in a deficit.

 

total nonsense.

 

I think you are being generous, the President inadvertantly admitted social security is broke now, but hinting that he could "not guarentee" checks would be issued if more money wasn't borrowed. That does not paint a picture of a sound program. I don't think it was intended to be a 30 year retirement plan in the first place, so it was originally funded for what it has become.

 

No nobody knows what will happen . Fuzzy logic gives us direction many times. Here you do not need fuzzy logic to see what has and is happening . When commitments are not made to the people ( Citizens ) we have a problem.
We are a Democratic /Republic we take the chance with our own money. We are not a, from the womb to the tomb
open the treasury to make all equal. People will never be equal . It is just the way it is .
What ever you get from the government you will pay for in your rights .
Socialism has never worked anywhere , any time in recorded history .
Five percent of people in the world experience true freedom , it has been in America.
The government should fear the people , not the other way around .

Pep

 

Yet, by one of those inconvienent twists of reality, both programs have brought in more cash over their respective lives than have been paid out in benefits [a net cash inflow to the unified budget], so without them, the Federal Government would have had to borrow even more money from the public markets than has been the case. I agree they have to be reformed, and will be reformed out of economic necessity, but they are not the cause of any of the current problems regardless of what is said. It's just math.