Has the silver bubble burst?

I understand that it's not exactly a bubble, but the metaphor worked.

Silver is starting to drop and drop. Will the silver market rebound quickly, or will this latest down trend create panic among the amateur speculators and cause silver to plunge closer to a 50% loss in value (around $24)?

 

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I personally hope it does, so I can buy more. I still think it will get back to the $50 mark, but that is only my opinion.

 

I don't expect silver to recover quickly. There has been too much technical damage to the market and it will take a little while to sort out. But I believe the bull market is still running. There are no signs of a bubble: no buying on leverage, no widespread public participation, and prices are not even above the level reached in the 1970s. No bubble in sight.

 

so, this is more of a correction?

I mean, nobody knows what will happen, but do you really expect that we'll once again have $40 silver before year's end?

 

Not until the general public sees loss potential in buying PM, and stop worrying that the sky is falling on the dollar, do I think this episode will be over. I am with CJackson wishing it would fall so I can buy again.

Just my impression from the early 80's was that every month, every year more and more people who were not coin collectors became dissatisfied with the PM market. It wasn't until enough of these "non-traditional participants" left the market did PM finally settle down, and the dealers were forced to start concentrating on selling coins and not bullion again. At the same time the stock market started heating up, and that is why quite a bit of silver bought in the late 70's was sold also.

In short, I think it would take a year or two of slowly falling silver, along with another market to grab people's attention for "large gains", for me to think this current run up is over. Maybe I am wrong and $35 will "be" the new norm. If I could tell you when it might settle down I would be on a beach in Key Largo right now man.

 

I think it's recovering now, but from unsustainable highs. If you think about it, what exactly drove bullion prices up in the first place? It's nothing that could sustain ever increasing, or even stable high prices. Maybe people are finally waking up to this fact.
Guy

 

The "first" dip I thought was a correction that would end quickly and stabilize. But now that it went back up to $40 or so, and then dropped by over 10% again, this is a sign to me, personally, that the silver market is way too unstable at the moment. I'm not buying, and I'm not selling, I'm just sitting and watching. There is no reason why the next dip can't take this down to the high 20s or mid 20s, and then fluctuate again.

 

It looks like a correction to me. But silver is sitting pretty close to trend line, so if there is another large move down, that could signal the end of the bull market for silver. Time will tell.

 

All commodities are down not just PMs.

Just a side note - Arkansas Farm Bureau estimates that 1500 sq miles of Arkansas farmland, an area which produces half the nations rice, has been flooded over the last few weeks. These flood waters are moving south down the Mississippi River backing up into and flooding the Yazoo River Basin in Mississippi and the Lousianna Delta Region - which are also large rice producing areas. The extent of crop damage as of yet cannot be determined but I believe it will be extreme. This coupled with the Japanese Tsunami makes me fairly bullish on ricce - which I believe to be trading under value to begin with.

 

I think this is a correction and that it will plateau between $30-35. I would also not be surprised to see it between $55-60 before the end of the year. TC

 

if silver falls into the high 20's ... i will buy another 2 rolls of ASE's ... i will keep buying the dips

i bought silve and gold for long term, so I really dont care where spot prices go in the short term (except lower allows me to buy more for less)

 

I thought rice like a lot of water.

 

Likewise. Except I'll probably only buy 1 roll instead of 2.

 

Lol, rice likes about 6" of water not 6'+ of water.

 

I also know that over 130,000 acres of corn ground was flooded. I feel grain prices across the board will trend higher, what that will do with PM's not sure. I think the PM's are more tied to oil prices, but you never know it could cause all commodities to trend higher.

I'll by more silver on dips. I think we will see it in the high 20's but its going to be up and down every day.

 

Can't wait till payday...I've been trying to catch up on my silver proof sets, one for each year. My goal is long-term hedging of my other assets so the dips make me happy as a clam.

 

It's only dropped when silver or oil margins increased. In the absence of such hikes it has consistently risen so to me that says this bull is still chugging along. The CME can't raise margins forever, but I wouldn't be surprised if it continued for a while. Even on Wikipedia it says the COMEX can't cover their gold commitments. These hikes are an effort to avoid a run since they are insolvent. It's providing buying opportunities, and central banks are taking advantage. I anticipate the trend will continue until they default, at which point those who bought now will be happy they did. Just my opinion though.

 

My opinion also, I'll start buying again At $27! I,m still at a significant gain in profit! So, in my opinion keep panicking, Thats what happen today! Silver was making a steady incline and people jumped out early causing it to plummit! So, like I said,"$27 firm ooooyah."

 

That's cotton country too. This is planting season for rice, cotton, etc and they might have to replant a lot of crops.

 

According to the Delta Farm Press (May 10 edition), estimates are that the region's rice crop (including not only the Arkansas Delta but also the Missouri Bootheel and Louisiana) will be 40% less than last year's. Yikes.

http://deltafarmpress.com/management/flooding-cost-arkansas-agriculture-over-500-million

The main problem with rice production in Japan is not really from the tsunami (although that did do significant damage to coastal rice fields in disaster areas), but from the on-going radiation problems in Fukushima Prefecture, which is the 4th-largest producer of rice in Japan.