silver correction coming?

I have been one of the biggest Silver bulls on this board, predicting a 2011 high of $50 since last Fall.

Well, Silver rolled up to $49.80 last night, so in my opinion my prediction was pretty much reached!!! So decided to sell 90% of my long Silver positions in my retirement accounts this morning when the premarket session opened at 7AM EST (about $100,000 worth of SLV and AGQ ... along with miners GG and SLW). I locked in huge gains on those.

Could Silver keep on rolling and shoot towards $60? Anything is possible, and i wouldn't fall out of my chair if that happened. But Silver has run so far and so fast, it's really overdue for a good pullback -- and I thought the risk reward wasnt as compelling at these levels.

In any case I am keeping all my Silver coins (my huge stash of ASE's and 90%) as I bought that for long term and I love having it (it allows me to sleep better at night). The cost basis on the coins is probably around $22 to $24 an ounce -- so I am cool with a big pullback. And if silver keeps running I still have that to fall back on.

At some point silver should have a good sell off (I am thinking back into the mid $30's -- but we'll see). I think a pullback would be healthy for silver and would provide a better more stable base for the next run for silver back towards and perhaps past $50 in Fall 2011 ... and towards $75 in 2012.

 

Log in or Sign up to hide this ad.

From a peak of $49.60 last night down to $48.00 this morning. Could it be that silver's meeting some resistance to overcome that magic $50 threshold?

 

Probably just a lot of people like WingedLiberty who are doing the same thing, not really a correction. Just profit taking. I feel silver is strong to $60-$80 an oz, plus the world will have to fix itself before a big correction is seen IMHO.

 

They're probably waiting for Bernanke's announcement on Wednesday. Just hope it's not an hisorical repeat. Black Weds, Black Thursday...1987.... anyone remember that? Or is my memory faulty?

 

I agree ... what The Bernank says in his press conference will set the tone for commodities later this week

 

This morning's pattern echoes what I've seen over the last week or two -- strong gains overnight (in the thinner markets?), then a drop back at the beginning of US trading. Could be US profit-takers, or could be The Nice Government Men and JP Morgan (who, of course, would never drag themselves out of bed early to trade outside normal hours) resuming Their nefarious manipulations...

 

I for one think you were very wise selling especially retirement funds on this strength WingedLiberty. You show financial sense not trying to wring every penny out of a bull run, something individual investors too often try to do. You made a profit and locked it in.

Well done.

Edit: I have already made plans to get access to my silver in two weeks, and plan to sell about $1500 face value then if the market is still where it is at today. I hate to since I love my silver coins, but it has just gotten to be too large a position, not one I intended when I purchased it. I was ok at $30 but near $50 its proportion to my portfolio is too great. If it move up further I will have to look at selling another $1500 face, mainly silver dollars.

 

My guess is, without getting too into it is, whoever "they" are, "they" are trying to figure out how to manipulate the market in their favor. Hopefully "they" will not succeed. It has nowhere to go but up in the longrun. You can't stop an avalanche. Let us all hope we're dressed for the weather.

I personally don't have enough to "cash in" though IF I did I would not be unhappy. Others I know who've held their silver more than 30 years still aren't selling. ( SIlver isn't their main investment of course, but still hard to resist) And if more long term holders continue to do that, THAT will give silver the strength it needs in the longrun.

 

The pattern of strong gains overnight and then dropping in the US market, doesn't strike me of manipulation as much as "weak desire to own silver" in the overseas market. I think too many have started to believe some of these hyped messages that asia, especially China is buying everything PM they can. Obviously they are not, or the market overnight would not be weak.

I feel it is a severe financial mistake to think there is manipulation holding silver down, and invest accordingly. IMO.

Jim

 

I would think of silver prices more as pushing a snowball up a tall mountain. It gets hard and harder to keep going up, and when it starts down is then the avalanche begins.

Like wingedliberty, I sold out my silver holdings entirely for the time at 6:30 this morning, and half of my gold holdings for a while.

Jim

 

down to 46.03 now. I wonder how far it will fall today.

 

sometimes we're the windshield and sometimes we're the bug!

Are those Morgans or ASEs?

If silver does fall back to $35 or so, I might load up again on SLV and AGQ in my retirement accounts -- as I am still VERY BULLISH on silver medium to long term. I am expecting just a correction here.
​

 

Mostly Pre 1905 circulated morgans, with some BU rolls, and some 1921 morgans and Peace dollars. I used to buy out dealers I visited if the circulated morgans were less than $7 and just put them in bags. The BU rolls I got from some mint bags that a customer brought into Ben Marlene's shop in the late 80's. I never really "collected" morgan's, (only key date I have is the 89cc), but would be keeping all of my cc's and the 89cc, but just sell the rest at a price. The only ASE I own is a roll of 1986's. Do you think morgan's still bring a premium at these silver values?

 

i have seen compression of premiums on old U.S. coins ... they definitely did not run up hand-in-hand with bullion (ASEs) ... from what I have seen, gains in common circ morgans were perhaps 2/3rds of the ASE gains (since there was a bit of a premium built in for "rarity" on the morgans -- but you can check with your local coin dealer on that)

sounds like you have a great hoard though!

if it was me, I would keep those pre-1905 morgans ... especially if they are nice solid circs ... and keep the BU rolls

maybe just sell the junk dollars (dented or cleaned)

and you can dump the 1921 morgans (bad strike and common as heck)

maybe keep any peace dollars NOT dated 22, 23, 24, or 25 (P mint) ... which account for over half the series mintage

 

Here is the short term correction we've been waiting for. For the Silver Bear's sake, hopefully it gets knocked below $46, or it won't look like much of a correction at all.

Volatility is the name of the game now. Hold your physical.

 

I'm not sure we can even call this a "correction" really. The price has typically fallen 1.00/oz roughly on Monday morning when people wake up and feel the need to sell, only to slowly climb back up throughout the day.

I think that silver would need to drop below $42/43 per ounce before I would call it a correction.

That is just my 2 cents (if it's even worth that much!)

 

I want it to drop some more, my buying trigger is 35/oz.

 

just remember a true correction (if we get a correction) typically takes 3 weeks to 3 months to play out ... it won't take place in 1 or 2 days

 

I know everyone here is always closely examining the case against silver as well as the reasons to buy. This is a pretty decent summary of the case for selling silver. Please do your own analysis and come to your own conclusions.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty042511.html

 

I agree based on historical perspective that if something is going parabolic that it's a sign of being near a top. How far it can go is anyone's guess. However, the current drop actually bodes better for a long term bull run since it makes it less parabolic, assuming we see sustained levels for some period of time instead of just a few hours. Otherwise it could be a top, time will tell. I'm not making any plays based on it so no harm no foul in my case. I'll be waiting on the sidelines for lower prices with my spare cash. =)