Some reasons I think Silver is on Fire

I expect for a debt ceiling deal will be struck, QE2 will end and the market reaction will take place in mid to late May. During this time I think the stock market and silver will pull back. Silver will continue to edge lower until QE3 is announced and then it will reverse and head higher.

Bluesboy65

 

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$45 silver

 

I don't see any serious proposals that tackle the debt/budget deficit/trade deficit and as Bluesboy writes there may be QE3 in our future. Not to mention PM speculation, oil, inflation, Africa, Middle East and EU.
This volatility point to upwards PM.

We may see $50 silver this week or next week.

 

Wow - as of 2110 central time silver is at 45.818! You all may be right in 50.00 silver by the end of the month! April 4th we were at 38.15 . . . wow

 

Why are you so negative cloud? Everytime someone brings up bullion investing you shoot it down. I am not saying that this is the end all be all but you have blinders on if you cannot see the other side of the trade.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/eric-sprott-expect-gold-silver-ratio-hit-single-digits

 

We can only hope. This is as insane as the late 70's early eighties. Unfortunately I do not believe THE BARNACK is as good as Volcker.

 

I own both gold and silver, so I don't consider myself negative regarding PMs. But there are a lot of fairly new PM investors these days. Most of them get their information from a variety of internet sites with articles written by authors with little or no economic training or professional investment experience. And they push things like the gold/silver ratio as analysis tools, saying things like "the ratio has been around 16:1 for thousands of years" which is easily disproved by reading history. I also recall that many analysts used to push the 6:1 natural gas to oil ratio as a "natural" ratio based on relative BTU content. You don't hear much about that anymore because the analysts don't want to broadcast the fact that many of their clients were financially destroyed if they actually followed the advice. Even analysts don't like to look foolish. From my point of view, the folks who now view forever higher prices for gold and silver as a slam dunk no brainer are the ones with blinders on. Every investment, including PMs, has something wrong with it. And it is the function of analysis to uncover those problems and weigh them against the positives. An investment should only be made when the probability of gain seems higher than the probability of loss. Now, I expect the PM bull market to continue for awhile yet because we haven't reached the frenzy stage. But my fear is that sites like zerohedge and some of the perma-bulls on CoinTalk will not tell you when it is time to sell -- ever -- and a lot of people, primarily newcomers who didn't begin buying until the price was $25 or $30 or $35 are in grave danger of going over the cliff by following bad advice. Almost every PM site these days tells you to buy on dips. Well, one day the "dip" is just going to continue down, down, down similar to tech stocks in 2000, and a lot of people will be buying all the way and get seriously hurt. Anyway, that is my position and the thinking behind my posts. Everyone has to make up their own mind and take responsibility for their own investments. Nobody should buy or sell PMs because zerohedge or Cloudsweeper99 tells them to. Do you own analysis and make your own decisions, but don't mistake editorial articles from fringe "analysts" on the web for analysis. I hope that helps.

 

THATS IT CLOUD! I thought we were gonna be cool, but now you're calling ZeroHedge.com to the mat. If I knew how to use this site better from my phone, I'd ignore all of your posts... and I'd add one of those smiley faces so everyone could see that I'm joking.

That said, Zero Hedge is not a PM site. It is a financial news blog that attempts to interpret information that's not always reported by the main-stream media. I found them a while back while researching real estate and mortgage information. They don't hide their current bullish stance on PMs, but you rarely see much discussion on the Gold-Silver ratio. That's not the reason silver has been on fire lately. A more realistic reason, which is commonly discussed on ZH is the blatant manipulation by JP Morgan in the paper Silver market. This manipulation is becoming less and less effective and the unwinding of their massive short positions is what's allowing physical silver to approach it's true supply and demand price.

The biggest value in ZH is not from the 20 or so blogs they post daily, but the hundreds of comments that go with them. Unedited analysis and links to other sites where you can get even more information. You say that people should do their own analysis; well this is how it's done for most of us. I don't work at a college where I get paid to do primary research. I have limited time throughout each day to absorb the most up to date information available. ZeroHedge is required reading and I've been extremely satisfied with their entire presentation. Not just the PM stuff.

Investors of physical PMs should hold the line. Things are going to start getting extremely volatile as more major hedge funds arrive to the party. Daily $5+ swings up and down will occasionally occur in Silver. The time to sell will not happen until sometime after the current US dollar is replaced or revalued.

 

In the Zerohedge "manifesto" they state that people should be suspicious of any speech that isn't anonymous. What they pass off as "analysis" is largely editorial content. Most of the content is slanted in a single direction. You may do your analysis in such a slipshod manner, but most people don't - or at least shouldn't. It is okay to read ZH for what it is [and I don't believe I ever called it a PM site], but anyone not giving at least equal weight [or greater] to more conventional analysis and their own investigative work isn't doing their homework. Gold and silver have been in a long term bull market, and it is typical for a lot of self-proclaimed analysts to jump on the bandwagon and post very self-assured opinions [sometimes plagerized] on various internet sites. Don't confuse investment skill with a bull market.

 

This is where I am at with my gold/silver investments. I am in it for the loooong haul. Not to make a pretty penny. I don't want USD.

 

Touché. I am all about hearing both sides of the equation. I am sorry that I inferred that you were negative on PM's based on your comments.