This is Why NO $50 Silver

I thought silver would go to 36 bucks by year end......now I'm thinking 66 bucks

 

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Political comment or not, it's still related to the upward trajectory of silver/PM's due to the possible erosion of the U.S. credit rating and purchasing power of the dollar as a result of a lot of debt.

I won't attempt to list how this debt was accumulated, safe to say politicians by themselves aren't responsible for all of it. We have to include parts of the the private sector (Wall Street, farm subsidies,etc)and the unrealistic expectations of voters that actually believe the silly campaign promises about how elected officials can better their lives. Sorry, not enough money to do all that.

Also, the size of government keeps growing. There are many things the government does that could be done more efficiently and for less money by the private sector. That would accomplish three objectives. Reduce spending, create jobs and increase productivity.

As for the tax code, it is too complicated, no one understands it and as a result some people do cheat because they feel that the tax burden is not being shared in a fair manner. It is also true, I believe that many tax loopholes were put in place by those with the resources to afford the best lawyers and/or lobbyists.

Although we're not as bad as Greece, until the tax codes are rewritten in a way that they are more transparent to more citizens, we'll still have the problem of tax evaders, whether it's the seller of goods at the flea market or the mogul parking great wealth in off-shore accounts.

 

I will take decades under the best of circumstances but as long as people are willing to buy votes with the money taxed away from productive citizens, we will continue to lose ground. As you say "I'll be holding on to my PM's in the meantime".

Bluesboy65

 

Generally agree on all points..

 

Agreed..

A big problem is the tax code which continues to be gamed by those with the resources to tilt it in their favor and the politicians who elections are greatly aided by the monetary contributions of the interest groups who benefit from re-written tax codes.

To moderator: I can make a case that this is related to the price of silver..but at this point after a very busy work week, I'd rather not put out the effort to spin the logic.

 

Back on Topic!

Yo, Yakpoo another week has passed, we're getting closer to $50!

 

I have been selling some silver as the prices have risen, I also have been converting some of that silver into other forms of silver, coins are nice sure, but so is pretty silver and gold jewelery on a handsome discreet chaste woman.

 

A man who knows how to enjoy life... :cheers:

 

I don't know who you believe are the PM bears here. I know of none. And when you recommend ZH as "truth" it should be challenged because it isn't truth and it isn't even high quality analysis for the most part -- at least not the quality of analysis I'm used to. Anybody who can't name five negatives for investing in silver bullion hasn't done enough analysis to warrant an investment. Every investment has something wrong with it. The decision to buy should only occur when you have done enough research to know both the negatives and positives, and decide that the probability of gain is greater than the probability of loss. When anyone is certain, they haven't done enough work, and the newer folks here should know that. And I won't even agree that "the proof is in the pudding." Silver might go up and it might go down. If it goes up, it doesn't mean that the folks are correct who preached that the outcome was a near certainty. It means they won a coin flip and imagine themselves to be experts at calling heads or tails. I don't mind so much if people deceive themselves, but only when the attempt to deceive others into thinking they know something that can't be known.

 

Your tired cliches are recognized as such by everyone. You know nothing about my past analysis of the mortgage market and to pretend you do is another lie. I know you don't know anything about economics except for what you read in the gold-bug and dollar collapse blogs on the internet. I just don't want others to be hurt by believing that you are doing anything more than parrotting what you read from dubious sources. I think the folks here have done a pretty good job at exposing you, and no doubt at least a few people here will be better off for it. And I am very pleased to have contributed to exposing you.

 

I think China is making a push before the WTO to accept the Yaun as the standard. But it was recently reported that the US $100 was the standard currency of operators of illegal businesses. ATM's don't dispense them, and they are used rarely (compared to the number printed) in daily transaction in the USA. However, to discontinue them means that drug lords will likely start using the $500 Euro for transactions/

 

As I said, you seem to be more balanced than others. I agree that we don't know what will happen with 100% certainty. But it looks like the dollar is in the bottom of the ninth, down by $14 Trillion runs. I'll be surprised if:

A. The Gov't and owners of the Federal Reserve aren't TRYING to destroy the dollar

or

B. Are too inept to make the appropriate decisions to fix the global economy

or

C. The US people won't accept any significant level of austerity and we'll have a revolt like the middle east. That may go badly considering we are the most heavily armed society in the history of the world.

And I disagree with you about Zero Hedge and Turd Ferguson. Those sites are required reading. Form your own opinions, but there is a lot of good information there.

 

I really wish everyone would stop replying to Passant. This thread either needs to be locked, deleted or simply not bumped anymore. It's obvious that Passant ignores data when it's presented... then later claims that no one offers him data. He's stated both that silver was linear and dislinear at different points in this singular thread. He cites the run up in silver from 2005-2011, even though his website only started tracking silver in 2008/2009.

People who believe him will believe him regardless of what others say. If we keep trying to defend the sheep from the wolf, we'll eventually all be shepherds in a field... with the wolves just hanging out inside the sheep pen. IGNORE PASSANT AND WE'LL ALL BE THE BETTER FOR IT.

Buster, the dollar is stronger than you think. Yes, we're $14T in debt. Yes, our debt is 95%+ of GDP. That said, the dollar is at 75% of par AND we're at a relatively low level of debt repayment costs in relative terms to GDP. This is all I'm going to say about it, as I don't feel inclined to repeat that element of my senior thesis.

 

I'm with you here. No need to keep saying the same thing. Better to wait for new information to come out than speculate on the same stuff.

 

LOL! I think it's a total of three people on this forum, maybe four, who are silver bears, who claim to offer data that is ignored, though no such data is actually offered; who claim to abhor absolutes, but regularly speak in absolutes; who whine that nobody knows of their great wisdom and success, when all they've proffered is the same tired failed emotional rationalizations for why somehow the system is fine and silver is a bubble. These same people use ad hominems and other fallacies and then posture as heroes defending the ignorant. Go ahead and stick your own heads in the sand, but don't pretend to speak for anyone else. These young turks you resolutely defend from the truth are more saavy than you. The only thing you're defending is your over-developed arrogance and pride. I shouldn't laugh -- it's quite sad really.

 

To everyone but Passant: Sorry for the long post.
To Passant: I waded through THIS THREAD because you seem too lazy to do it yourself.

 

Did you have a point to that?

 

Disagree with this. The value of a forum like this is considering a diversity of opinions. As long as the thread stays focussed on silver and things that influence it's value, I think the discussion adds value. I have gleened things from your posts as well as from Passant's.

Bluesboy65

 

I am sure that China would like this to be the case, however they would need at least a couple years worth of gold production in order to have enough backing to replace the dollar as the world reserve currency. The IMF has been proposing SDR's (Special Drawing Rights - more paper) to replace the USD in this role which is a more likely scenario IMO for the nearterm, and would be unlikely to get replaced by any national currency if it went into effect.

 

Agreed. We don't all have to see eye to eye, but having multiple perspectives to consider is always a plus. I like to anticipate all possibilities, weigh the probabilities, and plan accordingly to risk * probability.