A Silver Shortage is rearing it's ugly head

The only caveat I would add would be that a lot of PM is ancillary production, basically a byproduct of copper or other mining. This silver is very low cost as long as copper is high. I could see a lot of production continuing if copper or other metals stay high regardless of the price of silver itself. As long as the copper, nickel, and other mining continues we will always have fresh silver going to market.

 

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is there any reason to think copper is ever going to be cheap?

 

Only reason it is expensive is world growth and construction. Have a major recession in China and India and see how darn fast copper comes down.

Not saying it was going to happen, just pointing out how, especially silver and platinum, are not "mined for", but are simply a byproduct of other mining, and if that mining continues this production will continue regardless if silver is $100 or $10 an ounce.

 

Copper is at a low point, probably due to little or small current speculation of increased demand. At 4.20, about 10% below peaks a short while ago. It is now at the level I mentioned then that I might be interested again in it. Perhaps it shows investors are fearing a slowdown in industrial recovery worldwide. I think it might be a bargain here, but I will follow it and wait for a signal. I don't think it is a supply issue, but rather a demand issue. IMO.

Jim

 

Gee, 4 minutes later, Bob Pisani says the same thing I did in my post on copper. Think CNBC monitors our bullion threads ?? Just kidding, I know it was coincidence, but it grabbed my attention

Jim

 

Cloudsweeper

The posts I have read from you seem to contradict. You say all the negatives about silver, yet you seem to be invested in it.
Or am I just reading your post's wrong.
I think the people who will be hurt are the ones like you who put their faith in the Gov. Take a look back at Katrina and see the response that the Gov made. Pretty poor if you ask me, now escalate that to a National Disaster and whamo! Good boy's , you are on your own.
Another thing is the Gov could care less about you, when the SHTF it's everyman for himself. Uncle Sam will be to occupied with it's internall structure fall apart to care about the likes of the people. You can see this already as they take care of themselves in all conditions.

 

do you post while hiding under your bed?

 

Why no, FryDaddyJr
I am a former US Combat trained infantry man . In a SHTF type senario I will be in the open, the question is can you spot me before I draw a bead on you?

Silver to $50 by years end or sooner.

 

There have been numerous links on this forum about silver market manipulation by JPM putting a huge number of shorts out there to keep the price low. Saw the YouTube video of it being referenced in Congress along with the head of the CFTC. Cornering things becomes more difficult as huge amounts of new buyers enter the scenario, mainly China, India, and people like us at large muddying the waters a bit. IMO that's why we're now seeing the gold/silver ratio return to more historically consistent levels, because the amount of manipulation vs. true market forces is losing leverage due to a number of factors.

I don't really think a silver shortage is an immediate concern. It's still available online, and coin shops are still in business in my area =) Although as China's demand increases, where as they used to be an exporter, we may see a shortage at some point as yearly production remains steady. And there are so many reasons silver kicks shell; conductivity and thus use in electronics (non-recoupable), medical use, safety net/inflation hedge, affordability vs. gold, collectibility.

 

$50 sounds like a good time to sell! But that's just my opinion, and will probably be my actions as well.

 

Has anyone ever noticed how the metals tend to make big runs upwards in Sept-Oct-Nov
It happened both in 2009 and 2010
Not sure of the dynamic at play with this.

I havent really gone back through all the past years tho ... so I dont know how reliable this is.

Might be an interesting short term trade to buy silver and gold ETFs in August and then sell around Thanksgiving

Of course as soon as I try to make a swing trade, it wont work!

 

So you have some odd fantasy where you have a pocketfull of silver and go around shooting folks when "SHTF"? Why are you threatening to draw a bead on me?

 

Gentlemen, lets stay civil and respectful to each other.

Jim

 

I saw a post somewhere on this forum yesterday with a link to a site that showed that every year since around 2000 there have been significant gains in gold in the latter half of the year (except 2008), likely due to Indian marraiges, US holiday season, and Chinese New Year. It seems that June/July are typically profitable months to get in.

 

I have never understood the logic of people investing in PM for doomsday scenarios. PM investment makes sense as a hedge to inflation or devaluation of your currency. If a doomsday scenario, who the heck wants an ounce of silver or gold? What value are they? PM's are only valuable in a society that can produce finer things for people to enjoy. In wars PM's, diamonds, etc are only valuable if you hope to escape a non warring area. If its a doomsday scenario, there is no place to escape to, so to me PM's would be dead weight.

I would probably be with you quarter, $50 would have to shake loose silver from this stockpile, maybe less. I am still thinking about what to do with a few thousand ounces of junk. Tell you what, I would be very happy to buy bags put together at $50 silver when prices go down in the future.

 

Come on man, you are not that shallow are you?
No, not you in particular. You as a generic term.

You imply that I am afraid and hide under my rack. Not the case, I fear no man.
No fantasy either. Just preparation.

As far as PM's for a doomsday situation, the reason to have them is to be able to obtain essential replacement items like ammo, food, fuel ect ect. The Currency will not be worth squat.

 

from what I have heard silver will have a major correction within 3-6 weeks so right now is a good time to sell.

 

Why are you so certain the end of the world is going to happen?

 

[video=youtube;s3LdNxV0yPM]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s3LdNxV0yPM[/video]

 

I agree 100%
treat your fellow CT with respect!!!