What do you think will happen to Silver in the next few years??

Zeplyn: You may refer to yourself as a "novice", but let me tell you something.....I SURE LIKE THE WAY YOU TALK!!

 

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I think you are more correct than you think you are. Just talking about only silver, what is the true value of it? What people are willing to pay for it, what many are willing to pay to speculate it will go higher.

Commoduty prices are where they are (whether up or down) because of speculation, not actual true value. All this of course is just my opinion and nothing more. I don't think a bubble exists in silver because the market is still too small. Not enough buyers buying blindly, this has caused the big bubbles in our history.

 

When I look at silver compared with the USD, it is interesting that silver had a low over the last 5 yrs on 10/29/08 at 8.40 oz, and the dollar index at that time was 86.49 ( that was the beginning of the silver price boom). Last February ( 2/25/10) the USD was the approximately the same as now (79.27) and silver was 20.15 ounce. My guess from this is that there is a $8 or so of "panic/speculator or ETF holding" pricing currently in silver today unless there are commodity related reasons such as demand, which I don't see in numbers. We all have opinions, and mine is just another one, but I tried to show one of the reasons why I decided to close my PM investment holdings. I think silver is over valued at this time by $6-10 per ounce and may test this level for support. All in my opinion, and no disrespect for anyone's differing opinion.

Jim

 

I see silver at $40 in 2011 for the high; and to a high of $50 within 3 years. In the long run, 3-5 years, silver should settle down in $25 area.

10 years from now? Too far out to even guestimate but if I did? $40 in 2020 would be a guess.

JMHO.

 

I see a currency crisis driving an eventual run-up in commodities in general and PM's in particular. Both Europe and the US are at a crossroads in dealing with run away trains in the form of debt issues and there will soon come a day when we will be in a full blown global economic crisis as a result. At that point PM's will be at new all-time historic high levels; at least doubling current levels. I like both gold and sliver but have more silver because of it's divisibility. I believe we will experience this crisis within 2-3 years and will be holding my PM's for the rainy days ahead.

 

I think it will return 1% over inflation. I see some more silver ETF's being launched but they will be based on contracts not vaulted bullion.

 

If the entire world had to go to a gold or silver backed economy, where would all the PM's come from to support the well being of billion's of people? Would you have to hope for a mass die off of humanity in order to get a share of a few precious coins? How could you convience someone to give you their food for some shinny metal you found in the ground? Perhaps we should invest in seeds?

 

This I have strong feelings about. I also think learning to speak Chinese as well as holding Silver, Gold, food, water and gun's w/ammo will prevail in the uneasy years ahead.

 

That is a common misconception. You have to go back and study Adam Smith's real bills doctrine and look at how the economies of advanced nations and international trade operated prior to World War I. Incredibly, trade was a larger percentage of economic activity in the developed world before World War I than at any time since until about 1990. So something was working and it is an interesting intellectual exercise to find out why instead of assuming that what used to happen routinely could not have happened because it seems like it wouldn't work. People constantly assume there isn't enough gold because they really don't understand how the system worked historically. The gold system is one of those things that everyone believes they intuitively understand, but rarely do.

 

Anything is possible with silver and nobody really knows where the silver price will be. One thing's for certain. There will be a lot of volatility. Silver could continue to go up but during that up-move, there could be some gut-wrenching down moves that could shake some weak hands. I do not know what the silver price will do in a few years from now but with the gov't continuing to print $$$'s and running up deficits, then that makes a good argument for silver (and gold and other goods and services) to continue to go up in price.

 

As a bottom line I agree Zeplyn. Funny thing about any store of value; it requires some level of civility to work. During Katrina, food, water, shelter and the means to protect it were king. After civiity is somewhat restored and goods are available for purchase, a stable medium of exchange quickly becomes a priority as people move beyond subsitance. I don't think king dollar will go away, but I do think that some communities will experience shortages and inflation will steal people's savings as an economic crisis takes hold. Silver and gold will serve as reliable store of value during these times. I think it prudent to read the signs of the times and prepare as best you can. Two books that cover the experience of people during economic crisies are 1) When Money Dies (hyperinflation in Weimar Germany) and 2) A Secret Gift: How One Man's Kindness and a Trove of Letters... (The great depression in the US).

 

Evidently, the number of those expecting such social and monetary breakdown are few and becoming fewer. If we look at Smith and Wesson ( SWHC), their high stock reflecting sales was on 8/10/07 @ $22.80 and by the first on the next year 1/08 was @ 6.22 where it has been flat since, falling to current $ 3.77. Olin ( gunpowder, ammo, and Winchester) was $30.39 high on 7/29/08 and is now $20.70 share. Perhaps those who fear such don't need to buy more guns and ammo, but many of the gun/ammo companies ( Such as Remington products have been bought by private equity /hedge funds which would be considered ironic by some, except they did so expecting more income than has shown up). S&W would be bought in a snap if there was real concern IMO. No offense intended, no one knows the future, but ignoring the present can negatively impact your financial future, IMO.

Jim

 

No offense taken but I don't think the performance of S&W stock is a valid proxy for the condition of our economy. When our Treasury Secretary warns of "a catastrophe," perhaps rivaling the financial meltdown of 2008-2009, when rating agencies are threating to downgrade US debt, when headline inflation (yes including food and fuel) is running hot, when commodity prices have been on a bull run and with China backing away from our debt I don't think there are fewer people who are concerned. Our current $14 trillion dollar deficit is getting worse not better; it is precisely the present movement in the wrong direction that has me concerned.

 

When silver hits $50.00 and gold $2000.00 I will sell it all!!!!!!!!!!!

 

I tend to agree here. No disrespect to any poster and their opinion. I just do not see a valid proxy either with that example.
I did read about the Treasury Secretary warns of "a catastrophe," write up and I also am seeing the impact it has had world over.
It is a fear that the Euro will be the first to collaspe and then have the US bail them out with our massive printing of more debt! This will indeed doom our economy as we know it and force the US Dollar out of reserve currency status. Therefore, China's currency (Yuan) will take the place as the new world reserve currency as the raping of America displays signs of a defeated Rome. God help us all if this comes to be.

 

I think silver will continue to increase through 2011-2012 and will hit $50-55 for sure.

 

I plan to sell when and if silver hits $35.

 

It will be interesting to see how high PM's will go but I have no idea where they will peak. At some point the gov't will be forced to acknowledge the inflation they have created. By this time it will be painfully obvious to all. I will sell my PM's when interest rates rise to the rate of inflation (probably somewhere north of 20%).

 

China scares me. Gold seems to go, as China goes. I have read several times, after closing PM prices at days end, gold went down because China did "this" or gold rises because China did "that". And India is right there in the mix to. I don't know. Just awful spooky to me.

 

I am confused on your stand with the Debt limitation, you seem to want it lessened but you use the treasury secretary's comment somewhat approving an increase, as Geitner was arguing for an increase in the debt limit when he said:

NPR broadcast.

Also on the downgrading of US bonds comment , this was the entire comments:

I find it hard to believe that most American's would back this statement and the reforms necessitated. you talk about inflation, would the American people back changing social security, removing or limiting mortgage interest as a tax deduction and paying a gas tax along the way?
Anyway, best of luck in the silver market!




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