silver closing in on $27 an ounce today

silver 28.51
gold 1,423.40

 

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Everyone is overthinking this. The currency isn't going to zero and deflation is as likely as inflation. Gold and silver prices are going up because it is a bull market. Anyone remember the 90s and tech stocks? This is the way it works.

 

Exactly. I have posted before that there is a lot of "hot" money always in search of large movements in any asset class. It has been in oil, tech stocks, housing, technology, etc. There is a ton of non-fundamental buying going on. If people really think this money will stay in metals forever they are mislead. This type of money tries to capitalize on any large movements, it is hedge funds, savvy investors, etc.

This is a traditional bull market, but with the advent of hedge funds and computer trades it has made such runs quicker. $28 is not scary to me, remember a market is a man made device, no number is impossible for a price, but also remember drops always come quicker than gains. Is $50 possible, of course. $100? Absolutely. I don't think long term the market could sustain that, but it is very possible for a while.

 

Indeed true, the Tech industry's stock exploded because it was of newly discovered importance. In the 80's computers were for nerds and nerds were lame. With the internet made fully public and windows 3.1 based computers people found a lot more uses for the computer. The industry exploded in the 90's.

Explain to me this: is the gold and silver market exploding? Has its popularity just suddenly exploded?

 

Anyone else think that $30 will be a ceiling? I expect to see a lot of people selling as soon as it hits $30, maybe enough to drop the price a little. I know I plan to sell most of what I have at $30.

 

Don't look now........but it is up $1.09 today and is at $28.85. A 1964 Half dollar now has over $10.43 worth of silver.....Crazy.

I think we'll be at $35 within a few months (or sooner).

 

Ceiling? no. Beyond that level. Just as folks are wishing they didn't sell at $20 and some hope to buy back someday if a correction gets back below their sell price, the same will be said of $30, but no one can tell you when that will be. It is my 'feeling' this metal has much further to go.

 

I'm on the fence right now about buying anymore....

I just can't get the right vibe about today's prices....

 

What you have already bought you may be able to sell at profit. What you buy today you may need to hold as long or longer than what you bought in the past. The risk is similar if not the same as when you originally bought in.

 

Interesting, I just took the value of silver 50 years ago and compounded by 5%, (close to average inflation), and todays price should be about $14.67

I am not sure if this says much, but to me this would be a baseline of where I would discuss where silver should "be". BTW, assuming 6% inflation the price would be $23.58, not too far from todays price. I guess I would say it depends on what inflation numbers you believe and the expectation of future inflation to decide for oneself where silver should be sustainable.

Honestly I didn't think it was that close to todays price. I could see apprehension and dollar weakening leading to prices higher than todays price, but unless we SEE inflation go up I think todays price is a little strong historically.

 

Yup. The higher it goes, the riskier it gets and the longer you have to wait for a decent return..... if you bought silver at $5. It's no big deal to see your profit doubled at $10....for me at $16, we're getting close to that now....($28 - $32).
Once you buy at $32, now you have to wait for $64, and on and on and on.....gold is even worse if you think about it.....

Inflation and other factors too....demand from various industries as well as demand from your average joe who can't afford gold, so he picks up silver instead.....as well as QE1, QE2, QE3 and so on....oh and fear... =)

Can never forget about fear.....

 

What does that say about us who bought at $3.50 or less? I was going to sell half at $20 and was lazy. Any idea where to sell now, cause I sure don't have any.

 

$3.50 or less? Wish I knew people like you back then!!! What an amazing return if you held onto them.....

When to sell if you have any now? I don't know either. I was ready to sell some at $20 myself and got lazy. I was close many times.

I'm still lazy. LOL....

So being lazy helps when the prices keeps going up eh?

 

lazy works both ways. it's okay that you were lazy when it works in your favor but man does it stink when it goes the other way. this is true of many things in life though I suppose. :thumb:

 

You're right, I have to be on my toes...I have to know when to get out.....but I think if I stick around here long enough, it won't be such a surprise......

 

"No one expects the Spanish Inquisition!"

 

I seriously believe there is no bad time to consider taking a profit. If you are an investor, you will find another area to move the money. I believe that far too many here have determined their end point more in time than in profit/loss and risk situations. So many say they are going to hold it for 2 years, 3 years, etc. rather than other financial indicators such as risk/rewards. Smaller investors use the physical material or shares as their claim, whereas most people/businesses who can influence the basic price use future contracts or options to leverage their interest. Even if you personally don't use options, they do give a very good indication as to the risks /rewards changes.

Early Monday I noticed ( like many others I am sure) that the ratio of calls to puts on SLV increased dramatically, so I joined that group as for a while, bigger money is taking an interest, but their interest can wane quickly, so caution and watchfulness is a necessity. If the options are an indication, many do expect $30 by Dec 17. But as the price of silver goes up, the number of shorts will increase also, narrowing the gain ranges, and eventually could reverse the market.

Knowledge, Research, and watchfulness.

Jim

 

Thanks Jim, that was an excellent synopsis and perspective. I appreciate your comments and advice.

 

Thanks Krispy, I know that you, cloud ,and medoraman try to put some general investing into your posts also, and I respect all. There are, and will be more, newbies jumping late into the bullion investing, and they need advice that is beyond the general hoo rahing that most ( including myself until I close the options . I do see a good investment ( more so was on Monday of course) for the near future at least, but we know that markets can change within an hour. For shorts, going so at this time would be like juggling chain saws, but they are patient types like those of us who bought under $10 years ago and have been patient. I haven't even looked at my numismatic junk silver

Jim

 

I'm kinda mad.

I sold late august/early september and got $18.50 for it - I think spot was 19.00 (I bought it at $14.50). So I made money, but only 2 months later its now $28.50!!!

My only consolation is that there's absolutely no way I could have predicted that.