Opinions: Best $1K Numismatic Invesment For The Best Return?

Discussion in 'Coin Chat' started by JimOfOakCreek, Jan 15, 2012.

  1. medoraman

    medoraman Well-Known Member Supporter

    You are? If you factor in inflation, (or time value of money), and had to sell today, you would be ahead? I doubt I would be. Its easy to be ahead of purchase price if you hold onto them long enough, but inflation eats away your return every year.....
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  3. pk_boomer

    pk_boomer Junior Member

    And, a coin is only worth what somebody will pay you for it... right now. Which implies the existence of a buyer (a coin dealer would never be so generous as to give you full retail). Whereas I can cash out my savings account whenever i want.
  4. zach67005

    zach67005 New Member

    10 oz for a dollar is much better, course you have to figure in your sort time. But equate that to the fun of the hobby & you're golden. @ $25 a box there's no way to lose.
  5. LEG END

    LEG END Junior Member

    Two series come to mind immediately, one high end, and a no brainer, the other lesser known. The First Spouse coins are high priced, but try and find some of the earlier releases....very pricey. Fact of the matter is that they are being produced in less than 10,000 quantities mostly. This is a beautiful series, and will richly reward if you can gulp and write the check.
    The best series, though, is perhaps the cheapest. The three coin ATB sets are less than 20,000 produced, and they are the most mint fresh issues. I have complete sets in multiple, and this started once I saw the quality. Higher grade UNC in this set THAN ANYWHERE ELSE. And the proofs arr squeaky clean mostly. And here is your tell-tale sign that folks are enthusiastic about this issue: on EBAY right now there are only two sellers, one with five different. Maybe they bought ten, kept the best and are now moving the others. Personally, if you want to later make complete sets, you don't need proof sets, you don't need unc. sets, and you don't need first strike or early release dated boxes. All you need is the highest quality runs. These are exactly the ticket. Imagine having 100 of each once they go off sale. Then the $15.00 becomes $30.00. Doubled money. Already a seller has one for $20.00. That is pure investment saavy. IMHO.
  6. Danr

    Danr Numismatist

    yea-still ahead-no doubt about it-
  7. medoraman

    medoraman Well-Known Member Supporter

    Fair enough sir. I bought 5 sets of the ASE's but still am sure I am short overall. If you count me buying a couple thousand ounces of silver at $4 into it, I may be closer but that was bought as an investment, not for coin collecting. Its ok though, if you count up the value of the enjoyment I have received from these over the years is still a great return on my dollars, its just my returns are in enjoyment, not necessarily financial. :)
  8. LostDutchman

    LostDutchman Moderator Moderator

    I don't know any coin investors who have made millions JUST investing in coins... I do know people who have smart investments ALONG with some coins and have made money... But these coins they are buying are $50k plus to begin with. It takes some ching to get into the world of "investment rarities".
  9. JCB1983

    JCB1983 Learning

    Your right Chris. I would still like to point out a recent experiment I did on the Bust Half series.

    Let's look back on the previous 20 years. What I have in front of me is the 1991 (Handbook of U.S. Coins- Dealer Buying Prices), and a numismatic news (December 2011) which a respected CT member sent me in the mail.

    If we take your example of let’s say 80 bust halves. For experimental purposes we'll say that 20 of them are pre 1820 and 60 of them are post 1820. If we take out the over dates/less common varieties than we have an average price per Half at $60 pre 1820 (1991 prices at EF-40) and $50 per Half post 1820 (1991 prices at EF-40). This would be an investment of $3,200 for 80 EF Halves back in 1991.

    According to http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Calculators/Inflation_Rate_Calculator.asp If we calculate inflation rates for the last 20 years, than $3,200 has the same buying power as $5,315 in 2011.
    So now I take the Dec. 2011 numismatic news and lookup the same pre/post 1820 bust halves. Pre 1820 XF-40 list at $185 x 20 = $3,700 and post 1820 non over dates/rare varieties and come up with XF-40s at $175 x 60 = $10,500. This gives us a total of $14,200 for the same 80 halves in 2011.
    If we subtract the $5,315 (2011 buying power) from 2011’s total value of $14,200, you have a raw profit after inflation of $8,885. If you take this and divide it by 80, than you have an average of $111 raw profit (after inflation) per bust half.
    This is at dealer price-guide. I am not saying that it is a 100% guarantee profit here, but I don’t see how it could have been a terrible investment (in this series, if you knew how to grade at the time).




  10. Hobo

    Hobo Squirrel Hater

    JCB, the flaw in your example is that you are assuming that you could have bought the coins at wholesale in 1991 and that you can now sell your coins at retail today.
  11. vnickels

    vnickels Matt Draiss Numismatics & Galleries

    Bullion like gold or maybe use it to start becoming a coin dealer and buy local collections and hoard etc.?
  12. Vess1

    Vess1 ANA# R3152287

    Yeah, but what's the alternative? A savings account? My best savings account is getting 0.25% right now with a credit union. Another bank is at 0.1% You could lock it in to an online, "high yield savings account at a whopping 0.9%. Or a CD for 2% if you're lucky. You're still losing for years to come. To the OP, if you had a free $1k sitting there I'd say buy something gold and roll the dice. You may as well take your chances with it than with the banks.
    I don't think anybody will be surprised when gold goes to 2,3,5k and beyond. Some day we'll look back at this time as the good old days. Give it 10 more years. Silver will be $100, at least. In the mean time, the fed has no choice but to keep interest rates bottomed out to kick the can down the road and hold off total collapse as long as possible. Meaning the banks will be paying nothing for many years to come.
    If anybody here thinks interest rates will be coming up any time soon, just look at the housing market. The US has 10s of millions of homes sitting vacant. Sellers cant sell right now with the lowest interest rates we've ever had. If you want to see CURRENT home prices drop off a cliff, just raise interest rates to 6, 8 ,10%, like the old days. I expect to see banks paying 0.1% for many years to come.
  13. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    That's more than double the mintage of most of the uncirculated First Spouse golds. The FS golds have gone up, but they haven't skyrocketed.

    The US Army gold might indeed go up in value, but it's got to overcome deeply entrenched indifference to modern commemoratives in general, IMHO.
  14. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    I really don't see how you're going to make a profit after buying at nearly five times spot...?
  15. Danr

    Danr Numismatist

    If you got boxes of the first 2009 cent you paid face and could sell them for 5x or 6x what you paid. If you got boxes of 2009 dimes or nickels you could triple your money- tripling your money in less than a year - point to one "$50K plus" coin buy that did that- I could come up with a lot of small money coins that did that- 1999 proof sets- 2006 eagle sets-buffalo silver dollars- capital visitor center $5 gold commem-there are dozens
  16. Danr

    Danr Numismatist

    it will be like the salt lake city unc $5 gold- it will be offered at $600 but no one will buy it and the sellers will not lower their prices.
  17. JCB1983

    JCB1983 Learning

    Ahhh. That would be a major flaw.

  18. JCB1983

    JCB1983 Learning

    [video=youtube;CirrRY_6aaU]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CirrRY_6aaU&feature=related[/video]
  19. LEG END

    LEG END Junior Member

    One more recommendation.

    Another ideas is following the hoard. Lots of people just collect Silver Eagles. How can you go wrong? posted 1- 16- 2011 @ 8:45:57. 1. 8:53
  20. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    On the other hand, I believe the 1970-S proof half was going for quite a bit more in 1972 than it is now. I'm also remembering that the 1999 silver set has dropped to something like a quarter of its peak value, although I can't seem to come up with a definitive price history on it.

    Contrary to some of the opinions voiced here, coins do NOT "only go up".
  21. Danr

    Danr Numismatist

    I think that everything I mentioned is twice orig price (and consider that when buying rolls for face value there is no down-side). just last year -2011- we had the 25th anniversary eagle set (doubled) and the unc Army half (tripled). If you pay attention you can pick this sort of thing up and double/triple your money.

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