Moderns v. Classics

+1

But then, rarity often creates demand. No one wanted the unc Jackie Robinson $5, until it was established as the lowest mintage of the series.

 

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A few have a short term jumps, many of them are up over the long term. Check the unc commems, starting in 1982. Half are up a little, half are up a lot - that's a pretty good long term return, better than my classics did.

 

Where are all you modern collectors that just bought the HOF’s???? My typing fingers are cramping up, defending moderns by myself.

 

WOW, guess you shouldn't hit the post button again, if it doesn't post right away. Sorry for the multiples.

 

Ha ha ha!

I'm laughing because my double post earlier was for the exact same reason. CT didn't seem to be responding when I hit reply. By that I mean, there was a response but after a minute or so it stopped and the written reply was still on the screen. So........I hit reply again!

Oops. Something must be up.

Oh yeah, when these occur, you don't appear to get an "edit" option either otherwise I'd edit out the duplicate post with the word "Duplictae - Sorry"

 

When you factor in the purchasing power of a dollar and the PM prices at those times when looking at the original sales price verses today...I don't see much of a benefit at all. You keep saying all these commemorative coins are good long term investments, but outside of the "roll of 1995-W" ASEs you keep talking about...I haven't really seen an example.

 

Thanks (19Lyds)!

 

Check the price guides. The ones I say are up a little are due to pm's, as well as a little numimatic value. The ones that are up a lot, Jackie Robinson, 1996 Olympics, and many more. Yes, as was mention, the 95-w is an anomaly, but I'm happy withthe returns the rest have given me. As for the very long term, today's coins (moderns) will be the future of coin collecting, they will be the series that are collected. Many of the coins I've mentioned still have great potential to appreciate further due to low mintages. I say potential because, yeah, the demand must follow. Yeah, yeah, I won't be here in the very long term, but I'm making money off them now and leaving most to the kids/grandkids.

 

Without reading your entire reply, I see the term "Price Guides" and I don't really wan to read any further because, price guides are often after the fact and out of date or worse yet, only display the highest price the coin(s) sold for.

For example: The PCGS Price guide lists a 2008-D Position A John Quincy Adams First Day of Issue in MS67 at $550. They may have sold 1 at that price in 2008 but I cannot even get an offer on eBay at $195.

The Price Guide is woefully out of date. At least for that coin but, how are folks to understand the difference between "price guide" values and "real world" values since it's the real world values that get taken to the bank?

BTW, I did read the etire reply and the only way the I could make money off the 3 you mentioned would be if I'd purchased them from the Mint which I did not.

The Jackie Robinson because I just don't buy gold. The 95-W for the same reason and the 96 Olympics weren't purchased simply because it seemed like the Mint was saturating the market with all the "Olympic Coins". Los Angeles, Lake Placid, Atlanta.

Heck, I didn't even bother with the 2001 Silver Buffalo.

 

statequarterguy requested some backup here, so I'll try to provide some.

First, let me say that I always make a point to read medoraman's opinions on things. I think he is very rational and has a lot of experience. In general people here would benefit from paying close attention to what he says, especially on the precious metals forum. And I'm 100% with his advice on classic keys as well.

But in this case "buying everything the mint offers" has never been recommended by anyone trying to profit from modern mint products. There is so much stuff that has high premiums for packaging that most of it inevitably will sell for less than issue price.

However, there are products that will be winners and there are some general rules to follow to help find them:

1. Watch for backorder notices on the mint's website. Analyze the sales report and decide whether you think it is likely they will produce another batch of the item or not. If it is a low mintage for a popular item, stock up.

2. For the most part, avoid clad. If you are going to buy clad items, try to choose the ones where the mint price is a low percentage over face value. (i.e. the S business strike quarters are a safer bet than the Uncirculated Set, which is a safer bet than a clad commemorative.)

3. If it is the first year of a new annual product, don't buy it. Look at the first year mintages for proof silver eagles, proof gold buffalos, proof gold eagles, first spouses, 5 oz ATBs, etc. The first year demand is always the highest.

4. If they make a proof an uncirculated of the same coin, always buy the uncirculated. Feel free to buy one shiny proof for your collection (I prefer them too), but buy multiple uncirculated to flip because they almost always are worth more than the proof years down the road.

I have done OK following these rules in my short time collecting coins. And my profits have allowed me to add to my personal collection.

 

I will stand up and write for modern coins SQG. Its a documented fact coin collectors have always turned their noses up on modern coins, preferring older issues. There was an ANA convention in 1927 I read about. Any bu buffalo was seven cents, even things like bu 1916 sl quarters were a dollar. People simply did not value them much, yet valued "classi " coins highly. Nowadays we would consider what they thought as modern to be classics.

So, you are right that collectors usually overlook current issues. So, in that way, I completely agree with you. I actually like the one good side of the pucks, I like quite a few modern designs. Not to bore long time members, I simply find the low relief strikes boring. Look at an Oregon Trail and any modern coin. Both were struck for a premium, but look at the relief difference, how it adds so much to the beauty of the design. Same with all classic commemoratives, their innate design may not be better than many moderns, but the method of manufacture today is seriously deficient. That is why they do nothing for me, but I actuall have bought some classic commemoratives over time that I find attractive.

If the mint starts making coins like the high relief st gaudens, then I might buy from them more.

 

CladKing would be proud.

Anyone who had the foresight to save high grade coins from the the 70's and 80's is sure to benefit in the future........

 

And Chris? I've all but given up on anything high relief from the mint......but I will say the reverse of the Civil rights commem comes close......

 

With all of the stuff they can do with surfaces, etc nowadays, just IMAGINE how beautiful that coin would be if the flame had more relief in it. Imagine the very pretty 1988 Olympic gold obverse with some relief. We could be talking how today is the golden days of US coin designs, not living in the past. High relief pucks? Sign me up for a couple of subscriptions even though one side is dumb.

 

Like you and I have discussed in the past, it wouldn't be all that hard to achieve, but with the above pictured coin they did a nice job. I'm really pleased with this one. Will it make me money down the road? I won't be around here long enough to find out but I suspect my offspring will make a modest profit......

 

But I really do not think that SQG is referring to "coins intended for circulation". I think he is only referring to Commemoratives and "collector made" coins from the US Mint.

 

Glad to hear there are others out there that have some respect for moderns. Yeah, I do like the mint products best (only place to find numismatic pm’s) and some non circulating circulation coins. Not a big fan of high mintage, high grade circulating coins, but hey, if that floats your boat, there is a market for them. Apparently the more affordable early unc modern commems have low pops of 70’s, as their prices are pretty high. But, then I’m not really into 70’s over 69’s if there’s a big difference in price. I understand those that have to have perfection, but the miniscule difference in eye appeal isn’t worth a large premium to me, regardless of the rarity of that 70 grade. Since there are ranges of eye appeal within any grade, one can find 69’s that are darn close to 70’s, maybe even worth an attempted upgrade.

 

I say "Price guide" for brevity, in a generic sense - use whatever you'd like to price them, completed sales, eBay, etc.

Yeah, I missed the Buffalo Dollar too, had to buy it on the secondary market. Back then, I was on the snail mail list, it was sold out before I received the mailing, actually, I don't think I ever did get a mailing.

 

I think you need to do a little more reasearch before you make those statements. Yes, maybe half of them are up a little from issue price but if you factor in the original shipping cost and inflation you will be lucky to break even.
The statement that half of them are up a lot is a real stretch of the truth. There are by my count 74 uncirculated modern commems issued. Greysheet lists only 17 of them at more than 40 dollars. That's a far cry from half. In proofs there are even less.
I collect modern commems also but I would never advise anyone to buy them as an investment.