elaine 1970

many have predicted gold will hit a high this year at around $1,350.00. the high next year at $1,650.00. we are talking about high. the average should be below those level. but still we gonna say good-bye to 900's. what you think?. up or down?.

CrustyCoins

I think those numbers are unrealistic even for a high.

This year only has 3 months left, personnaly I don't think it will go over $1050 and we would be lucky to see $1100 for a high.

Leadfoot

I think your history predicting precious metals is rather poor, Elaine, and nobody can predict the future.

elaine 1970

September is mostly bad for gold. December is mostly the highest. let's see what will happen this year. after all. everybody is just predicting.

coleguy

I'm predicting people will buy no matter how high it goes, and then whine about it when the price drops back to reasonable levels again. It happens about every ten years....people never, ever learn.
Guy~

elaine 1970

let's also heard those predicting it will go down. all those reasons come out. and then we can summarize it.

coleguy

It's gone up and down in cycles for as long as man has wanted to own gold. This economy is nothing we haven't seen before. Demand will be there, and then it will wane, like always. True, the bottoms have always been a bit more than previous bottoms, but it doesn't make it any less of a gamble.
Guy~

Treashunt

holding strong above $1,000
1005.60
+8.20

Lets see it close above $1,000 today.
Too bad it is the weekend.

__________________
The Other Frank
"Buy The Book Before The Coin!"
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RedTiger

September is actually the best month for gold
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Holmes/holmes_aug312009.html

average gain is 2.5%

I think long term, gold is going much, much higher. Predictions are mostly for entertainment, and for the most part worthless. Action is what counts. Reports about what a person is actually buying or selling (gold coins for this section of the forum), is of much more interest to me than predictions.

elaine 1970

yes. for collectors. we are very cautious. the gold went up is mainly due to outsiders. not the collectors. when gold really go up. still, we the collectors will not sell them. because we collect. we enjoy the hobby. isn't it?.

Leadfoot

That is a common fallacy. Gold's price is less a function of demand, and more a function of the US dollar versus world currencies.

Said another way, the global demand for gold is relatively constant, but the price is not, and it varies more closely with the relative value of the US$ than anything else.

Don't believe me? Graph gold against US$ against other currencies and see for yourself.

coleguy

Normally I'd agree 100%. But this recent rise in gold prices isn't following that trend, as the dollar has actually maintained, and even gained on world currencies, particularly the Euro. Even metal experts are scratching their heads on this one.
Guy~

Leadfoot

Agreed. It doesn't "always" work that way. Let's remember that prices are always set by supply and demand, however, I think that if you take a bit longer perspective that you will see what I have suggested above is true (and you seem to allude to this in your response).

If I had to guess what's going on it is that in times of global financial uncertainty (like today) the demand goes up (as a hedge), and that's likely whats caused the recent divergence between the value of the US$ and gold spot price.

I also think the rise of buying power of the lower and middle classes in China -- a people who have always valued gold and now have the money to buy it -- has also added to the price of gold.

Leadfoot

p.s. While I really hesitate to try and make predictions, I still like Platinum over Gold for short to medium term appreciation, and I'm wagering (in terms of my own holdings) that it will outperform gold through the end of the year.

coleguy

I think you're right. Platinum has been overshadowed by gold for too long and I think it will go up. I wish there were more collecting opportunities for platinum besides the overpriced US Mint bullion coins.
Guy~