POG: Whither Gold, in the short term? (Slight Decline in 2013, I suppose)

If people can not discuss bullion investing without snide personal comments from this point on, no more warnings, just a "time out" from the whole forum will occur. Cut out personal remarks!

 

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Another bearish article on Indian Gold accumulation: if the Indian govt concertedly attacks Au in 2013, the price will decline.
http://www.economist.com/news/finan...-becomes-macroeconomic-problem-treasure-chest

The bearish case for diminishing Gold demand from India/China:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1105101-gold-under-pressure-from-lack-of-demand

BULLISHLY, there's also renewed talk of a Gold bank:
http://www.dnaindia.com/money/report_rbi-working-group-revives-gold-bank-idea_1784956

 

Moderator, please note the following:
http://www.cointalk.com/t219492-4/#post1601888

Thanks for being "fair & honest." That's appreciated.

 

It isn't a strawman. If Faber never says anything that someone can go back to their desk and incorporate into a buy/sell decision, then he is an entertainer, not an analyst. He is just another buy/sell coin flip. But you are correct that he is paid to be a fortune teller, and considers the paycheck more important than integrity. You are correct that 10 days does not make a year. But I thought his forecast was for Q1 and in that case, he is falling behind. This is the problem when you follow a guru.

 

It certainly is your strawman. A strawman is an informal fallacy based on misrepresentation of an opponent's position. You play that game often. I never said/claimed Faber's a guru (nor my guru: I have none, btw) nor that anyone - clients, CT peanut gallery, etc. - should FOLLOW him. It's interesting to watch the haters go ballistic when Faber - a Gold-Bug with a good (excellent?) track record - gets a nod though.

Faber's target-downside %age matches my own # that's all. We shall see. Nor did I claim anything actionable; there's no "advice" here. Please stop misrepresenting others, thx.

 

What I posted isn't a fallacy. It's a fact. I don't think I misrepresented your position at all since you admit his target matches yours. And I didn't claim he was your guru, just that he is something of a guru. His track record isn't that good. He's a gold bug in a gold bull market. His methodology is to recommend folks to sell gold short term whenever gold has been going down for a few weeks, and to recomment folks to buy gold short term whenever gold has been going up for a few weeks, but then throws in that he is a long term bull. This isn't analysis. I just want people to know that.

 

Actually, you've done nothing but misrepresent "my position." You're bull-baiting. This is just another of your attacking digressions, that's obvious.
And the moderators are tacitly encouraging you.

As I've said before, the so-called "moderating" of this forum is poor. That's the real problem here: not legitimate differences of opinion.

 

Well, I certainly don't want to bull bait and make attacking digressions. But I don't think I misrepresented your position on gold because I just said what you said. I think the moderating is great on this forum even as it is impossible to have a discussion with you. So to keep the peace, I'm going to do something I've never done before and put you on ignore. Bye bye and I'll pray for all of those folks out there who follow your advice.

 

LMBA traders polled were BULLISH; however, the 2012 'Poll Winner' has a much lower target, with a Low near my own.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-11/gold-seen-advancing-as-much-as-14-this-year-in-lbma-survey.html
"Gold will climb as much as 14 percent this year and average $1,753 an ounce after posting its longest winning streak in at least nine decades, a London Bullion Market Association poll of traders and analysts showed."

"The most accurate forecaster of average gold prices in the LBMA survey last year was Rene Hochreiter, a director and chief executive officer of Johannesburg-based Allan Hochreiter (Pty) Ltd., winning a one-ounce bar of gold. The metal will average $1,600 this year as the U.S. economy improves, he said earlier this month.

Of note here: Hochreiter thinks the Gold Bull is over, the HIGH will be $1,700 (so the Low will be ~$1500.) but "Unless you really have to sell, you don’t sell it."
And Platinum has more upside (for 5-6 years.) hmm.
http://washpost.bloomberg.com/Story?docId=1376-MG26XJ0D9L3A01-2BV7FDCGB2EB97I32DP1N9RPPO

 

Gee thanks Juan, I appreciate your honesty. Glad you like it as it is not going to change. Have a Great one!
​

 

Wow, listen to the Indian Gold analysts.
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com...d-to-test-resistance-slide/article4326290.ece

I don't agree w/ GS on this scenario as likelihood but (IF interest rates are heading UP and there isn't chaos in the USD & stocks, THEN) this might be compelling: http://www.businessinsider.com/why-...could-see-a-brutal-turnaround-for-gold-2013-1

 

Australia is the world's second largest producer of gold after China - and the most transparent source for information about production. The Ozzie are now saying they expect the avg Au price to decline slightly, a ~ -2%:
http://www.moneynews.com/Markets/Australia-Gold-Prices-Decline/2013/03/19/id/495417

3/19/2013:
"The price of gold is poised to retreat 1.8 percent this year as demand may decline if instability in global financial markets eases and consumption drops, Australia’s Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics said. Prices may average $1,638 an ounce in 2013, down from $1,668 a year earlier, the Canberra-based bureau said in a report Wednesday. That compares with a December forecast of $1,738 for 2013."

 

Average Monthly Gold Returns (since 2001) show Gold usually gained in 1Q:


This year (in Rupees) Gold was a losing bet: "Demand for the yellow metal has been lacklustre due to lack of liquidity ahead of the fiscal year end, and after a more than 50 percent hike in import duty to 6 percent in the middle of January."
http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/03/28/india-gold-idINDEE92R03Q20130328


VERY Bearish articles on Gold:
"Gold Declines in Worst Run Since 2001 as Economic Concerns Ease"
http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...rst-quarterly-run-since-2001-amid-weak-demand

"Even Another Cyprus-Style Crisis Can't Save Gold"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100595479

"Gold: Why April Is a Key Month"
http://www.forbes.com/sites/tomaspray/2013/03/28/gold-why-april-is-a-key-month/

The last article cites (GLD) key support @ $148.37 ; that puts Spot POG @ ~1510-1527 ... a ~ -4.5% decline from here. Possible? Absolutely!

 

Ouch! Do you think it will hit bottom soon? I'm not buying any more gold. I am not a goldbug anyway. The small numismatic coins do sorely tempt me, but I am going to resist the urge.

 

Personally (my two cents) I think July will be a great time to buy. I have been short term bearish on Gold since 2010 though I'm still a confirmed & longterm advocate for Gold allocation.

You saw this already? I don't believe the 'bottom' part, obv
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1364472000.php
>>GoldCore have been very busy on the sell side in recent weeks which suggests we are close to a bottom. This week was the first week in three where there were more buyers than sellers. There were a lot of new account openings after the Cyprus crisis began and in recent days, particularly from Spain and Italy, but there have been no huge flows into gold and nothing on the scale of the Lehman panic. There are real and growing concerns out there among the European public but as of yet the mass of retail and savers and investors are not concerned enough or more likely not aware enough to diversify into gold.<<

 

Goldman is about the best contrarian play next to Soros. They make their money by doing the opposite of what their customers are doing on a consistent basis. Jim Sinclair recently said, and I have long been of the opinion that, interest rates cannot and will not rise. ZIRP is life support of the banking system at this point. There is no turning back without a reset.

 

Officially, a Gold market "recession." Don't believe -20% = "Bear Mkt" in PMs, but I also don't know what the specific metric for that call would be.

Gold Price Languishes on Cyprus Calm: http://goldinvestingnews.com/33535/...dquest-barrick-colombian-northern-vertex.html

"Gold is down nearly five percent so far this year and if the losses continue, the metal faces the first back-to-back quarterly loss since 2001, which would mark a gold market “recession” according to the conventional definition of two subsequent quarters of negative growth, Mining.com points out."