Article: US Mint Gold-Coin Sales Fell 25% in 2012

Take-aways:
-No "Gold Bubble" here, after 3 years of FALLING RETAIL DEMAND
-Presume FALLING DEMAND for 'numismatic bullion' also (w/weakening premiums, better deals ahead, poorer resale value in 2013, etc.)
-US Dealers negative on bullion-coin Gold market (AGE/ASE mkt trend: bleak)
-Silver bullion-coin demand fell sharply, first time since 2007

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323874204578219421777432536.html

So much for using 'Joe Sixpack'/shoeshine boys as a metric for an imaginary Gold/PM Bubble.

In light of US analysts & fund managers BULLISH targets for Gold in 2013, US retail physical is out-of-step with (or wholly unrepresentative of) rising demand for investment Gold.

Watch MENA, watch Asia instead.

 

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Another article, analyzing the trend outlined by WSJ. : http://money.msn.com/now/post.aspx?post=6e6a20cb-9275-4c62-ad09-ba01fe4013b2

Take-aways:
-WSJ claim that investors are buying Paper Gold is NOT substantiated (US investors are NOT piling into ETFs instead)
-Gold coin sales mostly/typically rise during stock market crisis or negative financial headlines; ergo 'no preceived crisis now' (???)
-Retail Gold investors are spent, cash-out or not investing more in PMs
-Exception: the reelection of BHO "freaked out" some retail buyers (aka Gun Nutters) and some others feared the Fiscal Cliff
-FOMC rumors suggest a US interest rates will rise & hurt POG

"Many customers were freaked at President Obama's reelection and wanted gold coins as protection against the volatility of the fiscal cliff, says Terry Hanlon, president of Dillon Gage Metals, one of the largest dealers of gold coins."

Terry Hanlon represents the Gold & Silver PAC (which endorses both Dems & Repub) and Dillon Gage has a progressive background, so I don't presume that comment shows "negative political bias." But if surging gun-demand (S&W claimed 48% sales increase, YoY) correlates to some degree - as Fox Poll 2/26/2010 showed - this is clearly a "type." I do wonder HOW MANY of Dillion Gage customers, %age-wise. I suppose it's a very, vary narrow demographic.

By the numbers, YoY US Mint Ag Ounces rose from 41,000 ozt to 136,500, so demand was 2x higher in those months (estimate: an extra 125k ozt SOLD in November & December.)
Est. net 17% increase for the period.

My estimated net increase in US guns sales (Nov. & Dec. +1,479,000) will only be ~8.9% higher - so the correlation ("Guns & Gold") continues, but Gold was favored relatively more...
Marginal increase in Gold buying in Nov & Dec. : ~60/40 due to BHO/Fiscal Cliff