Wow, what a divergence of opinion!!

Reading Scott Travers "Coin Collectors Survival manual" and in it he points to an experiment:

26 graders were asked (by Heritage Rare Coin Galleries) to grade 75 different coins.

Some of the results:
1945-D half dollar - ( 7 said AU59, 2 said 60, 2-61, 8-62, 7-63)
1904 Double eagle - (4 said AU 59, 2-60, 3-61, 7-62, 8-63, 2-MS-64)

and on, and on, and on . . .

As a new guy to this hobby, I found that VERY interesting. I thought grading might be different by a point or two, but not by this much. Thought I'd share . . .

 

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I do not believe in grades outside of UNC./XF/VF/F/Junk the diff. between these grades are pretty apparent to anyone.

 

Opinions are like edited (and I'll probably get edited),then why did you do it ? everyones got one....:smile

 

They must not all have been experts. There's no way two experienced graders, much less 26, would differ on the same coin as much as high AU to MS64.

 

I strongly disagree, I've seen the same coin be submitted with results ranging from AU55 - MS63.
It happens. All the time.

 

Anything below F is junk?

 

I was just about to disagree with that point myself.

 

AU59? Don't hear that one very often.

 

Oh Oh, some one kicked a hornets nest....

 

How was the experiment conducted? I think it would be interesting to run such experiments in a number of ways, one is to have the graders use reference books to assign a grade, one would be to have graders grade from memory, another variable would be to have a cute girl with a pleasent manner present the coin to be graded, another would be to have a brusque rude old man command that the coin be graded.
I would also think that coins with considerable toning would also be more challenging for graders, plus what light conditions are prevalent can make grading differences.
There are enough variables to make grading more subjective than it has to be, I am sure that those variables are winnowed down in the tpgs, as much as possible, but still....

 

So are you guys saying its better to request certain graders , OK OK I'am new at this coin grading thing , thats why I collect mostly silver proof sets & only have a few slabs , & thinking about sending one of my older coins in to be graded. Geezzzz are you saying graders do their grading on a whim ?

 

Yeah. Were these third-party graders, or third-graders?

 

lmao

 

You could randomly pull 26 people off this board and call them 'graders'.

Actual NGC and PCGS graders would not vary more than a point I would bet.

 

......i'm wondering if this was ever tried with a coin with the CAC sticker? now THAT would be interesting.

 

vess 1 wrote, "Actual NGC and PCGS graders would not vary more than a point I would bet."

I agree, and disagree. I think that other conditions matter, lighting especially. The op did not dwell on the methodology of the experiment, nor many of the details of the experiment at all.

I think most would agree that there could easily be a one point grade difference among experts working in controlled conditions, with consistent lighting and presentation.

But as far as assigned value goes one point can mean thousands of dollars difference. This, to me takes coins from the realm of investments such as precious metals, stocks or commodities and makes it far less likely even with the use of slabbed tpg coins to make it all certain what your portfolio is worth.

I am not saying coins are a "bad" investment, just that the subjective nature of the grading system makes coins trickier.

Some years ago I heard about the chicken method of picking stocks, the paper with all the stock listings was spread out on the floor of a henhouse and where the chicken went were treated as stock picks, according to the story the stocks the chicken "picked" outperformed the stocks the experts picked.

I do not think I will spread a price guide on the floor of a chicken coop anytime soon, but maybe I should.

 

Well said. This should be required reading before you can sign up to this site. I would hope that most people don't see them as an investment as much as they see it as a good hobby to store some wealth in if you choose. As in, if I pay $100 for a coin today, I certainly hope in a few years that I would be able to sell it for around $100.

Bad investment or not, inflation should inevitably maintain what you've paid. Just look at what so much stuff was selling for in the 50's. Whether it was true gain, inflation, or both, most prices from the 50's, 60's and 70s are laughable now. It's got to be better than cash sitting in a savings account making 1% interest or less annually.

But chip is right. They are not a hard commoditee like corn and beans. Very subjective so you have to be careful what you purchase. That's why Bowers recommends buying the optimum collecting grade.

Say the list price is similar through all lower grades. Then to MS60 the price jumps 2x. To MS62 the price jumps 2x. But then the price jumps 4x to MS63. In this case, as long as it has great eye appeal, the MS62 represents the best value as it's still a premium coin that is likely close to the next level which is 4x more than you paid. Most times it isn't worth paying the MS63 price in this example. Bowers recommends taking the extra money and going on vacation!

On a side note, that doesn't apply to all coins. Mainly higher dollar ones. Many slabbed gold commemoratives in MS/PF70 can be had for 30-50 dollars more than a completely ungraded, maybe 67,68 coin. Which is only a 20% premium for a perfect coin.

 

Or, to put it another way, betting money on coins is a sucker's game.