With Ecomony down, Will Coin-Prices Go Up ?

1st Question: I can't help but think, the way our Economy has been down, an faltering, will this, eventually' have a impact on the Coin Market ? Will we all, see coin prices adjusted, seein' as how, inflation is, rising steadily ?

2nd Question: Does any knowlegable collector on Jefferson Nickels, or,(Professional Coin-Analyst, for that matter,) see an upward-trend for this Series ? with the new designs, an talk about this Series is ( Under-Value'd)?
Has anyone ventured into finding anything about all of this ? Response to
this, would be most-appreciative ! chasindreams :high5:

 

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Well, yes and no. High end stuff will hold its value likely, whilst lower end stuff will likely depreciate a bit. It is not to say a few big buck collectors will not take a bite, and apparently some are lately -gotta pay mortgages etc. but the people most likely to sell because they have to are the ones with less money to start with.

 

Great questions.

I'm not a dealer, but I do know there have been strong prices at auctions recently. I'm not sure all the negative hysteria and hype has had much effect on coin prices, but I suggest talking to someone who travels The Circuit and ask them what they're seeing. They know a lot more than I.

Personally, I think perception is much, much worse than reality. Again. There's a big disconnect between what is real and what people think.

 

Coin prices are high, but so is the price of everything else. So the prices aren't as high as they look relative to everything else.

 

Both ways. Some are hit by the bad economy and are forced to sell at whatever price. Some find that it's a bargain to buy, in particular overseas buyers which keeps the demand strong.

 

I think prices are down. Less people have disposable income right now. Economy goes back up, people have more disposable income, more people buying, equals higher prices. Simple theory but that's the way I see it. I think you need to get bargains now while you can.

 

At the risk of making what sounds like a political statement, this is too often the case, and usually has to do with the media perpetuating negative opinions of the economy. You'll notice that when economic experts are polled, they often have a much different outlook than the general public.

Media does deserve a bit of the blame here. You tell enough people there's a recession, people start to believe it, start spending less money, meaning companies make less profits, have to start laying off people or cut their hours, people thus have less money to spend... and bingo, the reports of a recession become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The generally accepted definition of a recession is at least two consecutive quarters of decreasing real GDP. The most recent quarter measured showed an increase of 0.7%. That's slow growth, but not a recession yet. Yes, the mortgage and housing industry isn't in great shape, gas prices are really high, but on balance the overall state of the economy is a lot better than most people think it is.

To get more directly on topic... inflation isn't really high enough to cause much of a difference in coin prices, at least not in the short term. Demand may be a little lower for some coins... but the people who tend to spend the most on coins generally can still afford to. I don't expect much differences (at least not in the short term) due to the economy.

 

The less disposal income people have to spend, the less value a Van Gough painting, or a semi-rare coin/rare coin has. It all depends on the captial available for each income group and what they would buy if they had money to burn.

 

Many economists have argued that we have been in a recession for more than 2 quarters. Many economists would actually argue that the government has been cooking the books since 2001, and that we have been in a recession for over a year.

Because real inflation is not measured by the FED, and only CPI is, the government misleads the consumer in to believing we are actually growing when we are in fact seeing the money supply growing.

The US Dollar has lost almost 70% of it's value since 2001 (look at gold and silver), many companies continued to post record profits over and over again... this is coming to an end now. These profits are also misleading if he value of the dollar is not taken into account. A higher dollar number, does not mean a higher profit. It could actually mean a lower profit. But no one has real number to go off of for inflation....

Why do we not have real numbers????? INVESTOR CONFIDENCE..... the whole system is based on the confidence of the consumer..... We may not have a totally free market, but if the consumer lost confidence the whole system would come crashing down.

You would lose you confidence if you knew how much money (aka debt) is created yearly. Inflation is like a tamed monster that entombs your soul.

 

Oh yeah, and the rare coin market suffers during periods of economic downturn.

However; like any other market their are winners and losers.

MS65 common date Saints, and silver dollars is what I will be buying if things get really bad, otherwise right now I think the coin market is healthy.

 

the economy isn't really in the crapper, unless the common man lets it go. Because we've switched from a goods based economy to a service based economy if people stop buying services because they are afraid the economy is in a down turn, and enough people do it the economy will go into a downturn. But with that said, people are selling off a lot of lower priced coins for metal value mostly and dealers are having to discount it to get it back out the door, so they don't tie it up for too long. Which translates to lower prices for you and me for the time being.

 

I agree that the consumer more or less controls the market, but I also do not believe we would have "recessions" if our money was backed by a real asset, instead of faith. What is a market recession that is not a test of faith in the system?

 

:mouth:

 

Nice to see you back, did you leave sunny FL?

 

I will take a crack at the second question. My short answer is no, I don't see an upward-trend for this series simply because the large majority of these coins are not rare. I don't collect FS Jeffersons, but I imagine this might be an area that could see an upward trend. The ultra-rare FS examples continue to smash previous records and bring ridiculous prices ($5K-$10K+). One of the highest ranked NGC registry sets (Compradore Collection) was just auctioned in the last month. These coins realized very strong prices. So unless you are collecting top pop FS examples, I doubt you will see much of a rise in the prices for this Series, which suits me just fine since I am working on building a set of Jeffs right now. Please bear in mind that I am by no means an expert on Jefferson nickels and this is simply an opinion.

 

coin prices

Howdy,

There are many variables. From everything I've read, high end coins tend to hold their value best in bad times and grow most in good.

Otherwise, to the extent the economy softens and discretionary income dries up, overall coin prices should decline or remain flat.

A wrench in the works is inflation, perceived inflation and the anticipation of inflation. To the degree folks start anticipating inflation, they may seek safe haven in gold and silver. This would impact prices for bullion coins.

just some things to consider,

rono

 

I won't speculate on the coin market based on the economy, because from what I can tell they are not related or connected at all. As a buyer, my experience has been that coin prices are up, regardless of the fact that a lot of people don't have the disposable incomes they have during times of economic progress. Maybe the reason is people are puting what money they can save into gold and silver until the stock market rebounds, thus placing more demand on a limited supply of coins. These :investments" will undoubtedly lose loads of money when a booming economy drives prices back down when the dollar levels out of inflated status. Thats my idea anyways.

On the bright side, copper coinage seems to still be reasonably priced, so I've been able to focus more on that area lately.
Guy~

 

For all those who want to claim we're in a recession, you'd be interested to know that the GDP figures for the last quarter just came out today, and they show a 1.9% increase (a 1% higher increase than from the quarter previous). So the economy's picking up, slowly but surely... and by definition, that means we're not in a recession (in fact, we're in a minor expansion period!).

 

That %1.9 was mostly due to tax stimulous checks, and it is also meaningless when you consider the tax stimulous checks all came from new money.

What scares me is that the goverment can use methods like this to scew the numbers and ease people's minds about the reality of the situation. 1.9 percent is a joke. If you really believe the economy is growing please explain the massive loses of the majority of fortune 500 companies in the last 6 months.

Please explain to me why the weakness of the dollar is causing stock market loses worldwide. Please explain why oil has been able to move over $100 a barrel..... It's not specualtion.... It's not oil company greed.... It is the inflated US dollar that is causing these long term problems.

Everybody wants to talk about corn, oil, Barak, McCain, Iran, Nancy, the this, the that, and a host of other non-issues. The biggest issue you should be worrying about is how the FED quietly erodes your life savings through infaltion, stock market bubbles, and the IRS.

Conservatives are losing faith, liberals are losing faith, but the media has them both believing everything is OK. Everything is not OK. Almost every economist on the face of the earth has cried foul, and yet we keep on marching to the tune. We allow are liberties to be taken, we allow our wealth to be taken away, and we allow are children to be brainwashed.

We are long overdue for a financial crisis, and I hope to God when it happens the people will stand up and demand that we be resotored to the ideals of our original republic. I hope to God that we can stand up to the criminals in DC and demand they restore our country to the rule of law that has been abandoned by greedy politicians.

In 1907 the stock market crashed and they instituted the FED, again in 1933, and they took your gold, and broke their promise to repay you in gold in silver. What will they try to take in 2009? What happens when the dollar loses %100 of it's value? We are already at %98 since it's inception in 1908. WAKE UP AMERICA!!

 

Have you ever thought about not believing everything the government tells you?
I understand that you probably think I"m a wild conspiracy theorist already, but one would have to be nieve to believe every single word and number the government puts out or the media feeds us.

1.9%?? Meaningless to me. That is meaningless. How exactly is this calculated? Can you describe what all goes into this? Who exactly is in charge of the over-sight for putting this number out?
Is Ford's 9 billion dollar quarterly loss and GM's 15+ billion dollar quarterly loss factored in? Everybody else must be kicking out A LOT of product to bring us back up to 1.9%.

The government cooks the books. They would never tell us the real numbers and incite panic. We don't even get to know M3 figures anymore. Best to keep it a secret you know? Because it's gotten to that point now.

Do you think inflation is around 3% this year too?