Why has my classic coin dropped in value?????

A 10 dollar gold indian MS 63 PCGS has dropped in price considerably in the 6 months sence I bought it. Why? What causes price fluxuations? Do coin prices flux just like anything else?

 

Log in or Sign up to hide this ad.

I would venture a guess that either demand has dropped or supply has risen.

 

The market may be undergoing a downturn in that area right now. When the economy starts to head back up (i.e. unemployment under 8% reported or 11% actual) then the collectibles market will go bull again.

 

Ah, that roller coaster ride with gold. I prefer to collect outside the high anxiety world of precious metals. It does wierd things inside peoples heads...

 

Because coins are simply not a good subject for short-term investment. (They're often not that great for long-term investment either.) Read - and understand - Doug's post:

 

It's gold; hang on to it and within a few years it will double its current value. In fact, if you're into gold, now is the time to buy.

 

I would argue the exact opposite. I think gold has hit a level where it will begin to break down, and when it does, the decline should be rapid after breaking through the barrier at around $1000. Prices are high and more than likely overinflated at the moment.

Look at gold prices over the past decade. This reeks, absolutely reeks, of a bubble. But that's just an opinion.


Disclosure: Short GLD.

 

Currently there is a TON of US classic gold being bought in Europe. Due to several reasons there is a lot of US gold in Europe. During the "Big Melt" in the 30's a lot of gold got sent back to Europe to protect peoples wealth. Also after WWII the US government let some foreign governments exchange US dollars for gold coinage.

The stronger dollar, weak euro, and high price of gold are causing a lot of nice US stuff to come out of the woodwork in Europe and it is being put on the US classic gold market now. So it's IMO a matter of their being a large supply for it and not a lot of people wanting to buy classic pieces at these prices.

 

This is going to be a race between the bubble in the commodity - Gold; and the bubble in the currency - dollars. It's easier to print than to mine.

 

Just playing devils advocate as I have no position in gold. When people say 'Past performance is no guarantee of future results' they usually mean don't invest just because something has been good in the past. However just because it has a good run does not mean it will fall either. You have to look at fundamentals, not charts is all I'm saying.

 

Wow, it's been a month, haha.

What goes up, must come down.

 

I'm no economist but wouldn't the current state of the economy and the falling value of the us dollar make people buy gold or more of it to preserve wealth and ultimately drive the price of gold up? Just curious why you would think gold is going to decline instead of continuing to raise in price.

 

I'm not saying it's going to decline right away. I'm saying that, in due time, the price of gold will fall sharply from it's current highs. If you want numbers and facts to back that up, I have none for you. All I have is my gut feeling and common sense, which has been insanely reliable when it comes to investments.

 

In my opinion, I would A) hang onto that coin and B) buy any key dates/rare pieces that you want to acquire now. As bgcoins wrote above and as I posted on a 1909-S VDB thread several months ago, rare dates and other expensive pieces are almost certain to increase in value once the economy improves overall.

 

Get that 89 CC shell hit $1000 in low grades in no time

 

I don't claim to be an expert on precious metals, but just the fact that gold is at historic highs indicates to me that it will likely drop again. Gold is going up in value now because the economy is bad and a lot of people think gold is the only safe investment. When the economy improves (and it eventually will), the value of gold will go down. There seem to be a lot of people buying gold who are part of what I would call the fringe wacko movement as well - those who think the entire economy will collapse and the government will be rounding up people and putting them in camps. I don't trust these people's judgment. What it comes down to is you don't buy when prices are high and I think anyone who buys now will lose their butt if they try to sell that gold ten years from now.

 

I agree that the price of gold will eventually drop as the economy improves. I also agree if you bought gold today and put it in a safe and forgot about it for 10 years there is a good chance you would lose some money. My thoughts are most people aren't going to invest in gold, or anything for that matter and just forget about it for 10 years. The decreasing value of the dollar, and the poor state of the economy has caused the value of gold to increase, and I think there are more than a few economists who agree that we haven't seen the worst of it. This makes me believe that we haven't seen the ceiling for the value of gold.
This is where opinions on where the economy is headed come into play. I disagree that you shouldn't buy gold solely on the fact that the price is high, unless of course you think the economy is on the rebound.

These are just my opinions and I welcome other people's opinions as i never know when i can learn something new.

 

I have read reports that analyze why we get the fluctuations that seem to argue the metals and coin market is underfunded, thusly dependent on exchange rates, currency production, inflation, demand, etc. Unlike oil or corn, no one really must have gold except as a hedge to the value of paper money. You can't eat it or heat your home with it. It's a Luxury commodity.

If you need to get cash, try using the coins as collateral for a long term loan. Some banks still do that. Keep your rarest coins if you need to liquidate, if you can. Those should recover value first and quickest when the cycle changes.

Man, it feels good to sell $500 gold at $700. Not so much, to sell $1100 gold at $800. Timing is subject to your cash reserves. And sometimes you never have enough.

gary