Why do price guides overvalue everything?

I know why pcgs overvalues coins but why do other online price guides like usacoinbook, coin magazines, and the red book overvalues everything?

 

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Some series are not overvalued on usacoinbook. In particular, Seated Liberty Half Dollars.

 

Not everything's over valued in them, some things are under valued. They just generally aren't all that accurate, there's too many variables to assign one price to one grade and be spot on and too many prices to have to track and change all the time. Also I think it is how people view them, they're really supposed to be a ball park figure not an exact one, but their accuracy and usage depends a lot on which series someone is looking at them for

 

Price guides are just that, guides. The best way of determining coin values are to see what people have paid for them lately. Believe it or not, eBay is a great information source for this. Their advanced inquiry feature allows you to search for a coin and see what recent auctions and buy it now sales have occurred.

This is excellent information for both RAW and Slabbed coins. The NGC and PCGS sites also have links to auction house sales history results so you can see final sale prices for coins, but bear in mind this is for coins graded by their service. Just my opinion, but I would avoid Amazon and Bonanza for direction in this area, their prices seem a bit lofty.

Another good indicator is how many bids were made against a given coin in an auction, also how many bidders there were making those bids. High counts on each can indicate that the coin in question has awareness in the collecting community.

Mintage numbers are a help in determining the rarity or scarceness of a coin, but sometimes, especially in the case of Morgan Silver Dollars, many have been melted and the original mintage figures are on occasion not very meaningful.

The other thing is the popularity of the coin type itself. As an example, a Barber Dime with a mintage of 75,000 is likely worth a whole lot more than a Commemorative Clad Half Dollar with a 50,000 mintage. If nobody collects them, 50,000 isn't very rare.

In my opinion, the best online retail value suggestions you'll find are on USACOINBOOK.com. The more popular the series, the more accurate they are, or so it seems to me. I don't know where they get their data, but I wouldn't be surprised it it isn't calculated from actual sales, probably on eBay, maybe other sources.

 

I think that any one coin that goes high at auction tilts the guides on the high side.
I feel this is done for the same reasons Doug stated.

 

Many coins are not overvalued, but it seems like only the popular coins and many US coins are.

Some coins I can't find anywhere, and when I do find them, they're snatched up quickly at exorbitant prices. Yet, the price guides (i.e. Krause) show a very, very low price compared to what they actually go for. It's as if they only focus and track the most popular coins because that's the most practical route to go (with a 20/80 mindset - 20% of coins account for 80% of the demand from coin collectors, at least with non-US coins).

 

Guides are high on common date common grades for sure. I was more referring to real guides, I don't even bother to look at book prices given how old they are by the time they're printed. Ignoring toning where you can throw the prices out the window and wouldn't sniff them for guide I was more thinking of things like nice seated material in better/key dates especially in better grades. You pretty much have to get luck to get a better grade with great eye appeal as a price guide buyer. It really is largely dependent on what is being discussed, an 81 S MS 64 morgan I would expect under guide but a truly nice AU seated dollar I would expect over

 

It depends on what coin you are talking about and what your position is as a buyer or a seller.

Mint State 2017 P Cents may be listed as 25¢ but that doesn't mean you can sell all you have to someone for 25¢.

There is a retail price for everything and a whole sale price also.

Both depend on willing and knowledgeable buyers and sellers.

 

I agree. The most common coins are the easiest for them to accurate or more accurate but on hard to find things they can be a detriment to buyers if they don't do some research and just hold a hard line of sticking to guides.

 

Not all coins are undervalued by guides. Coins before 1964 tend to be overvalued by most sources and coins after tend to be grossly undervalued. All extremely inexpensive coins are overvalued and sometimes by huge amounts. Coins that wholesale at $2/ 100 might have a $1 listing for instance. Many moderns are very inexpensive leaving the impression they are overvalued but the opposite is true.

As a rule of thumb earlier coins can be bought at 30 to 60% of Krause prices but later coins will cost anywhere from 20% to 500% with more desirable coins being undervalued. Redbook is little better. Even good sources like the PCGS guide tend to be all over on some coins.

If you need a price guide stick with 19th and 20th century US coins in nice circulated condition.

 

It is to their advantage

 

Even at a particular grade the value of a coin can vary significantly; coin guides don't reflect that. Look at, say, MS 65 examples for a particular coin from auctions and there could be a wide range of hammer prices. Eye appeal, strike, ... contribute to what a buyer will pay.

 

Exceptional strike and condition are going to command more in price than what any 'guide' will state.

 

Also rainbow toning and other toning patterns - many collectors would give an arm and a leg for them!

 

Exactly! Collectors are going to pay what they think is reasonable for a coin they like, regardless of any price guide. I use eBay and auction sales for coin and price comparisons. I can usually find a coin that has been sold recently (past couple years) with the eye appeal I want. When a comparable or nicer coin comes up for sale or auction I'll make a determination on how much I'm willing to spend. If it's a date that rarely comes up for sale or auction I'll set my limits a little higher.

 

Actually, it's not always 'reasonable'. Sometimes you have to be insanely stupid to pay for something you think (and others don't think) is exceptional. One hopes one is not wrong, (by doing so) but only time will tell.

 

Do you ever get the feeling you're talking to yourself in this fellow's threads?

 

In the hopes of helping him to 'see' (maybe)?