Help me out here, please. I just lost out as underbidder on an antoninianus of Salonina which the auction house had trumpeted as "Not in RIC." Against better judgment (I think) I had bid just under 220GBP, the hammer price, though I suspect that the buyer was prepared to go MUCH higher. But why? Let me explain. The coin is not in RIC. That is true, but before RIC it was listed by Cohen and so is listed in RSC, but left unpriced. What this usually means is that the variety in question was considered suspect by the editors of RIC and excluded (not merely omitted) and Seaby/RSC followed their lead by declining to give it a valuation. In most cases where this happens it means the coin is an ancient unofficial hybrid, for which the source of the reverse element was ambiguous. Where it can be identified the hybrid element is attributed, but the coin is not listed alongside the bonafide issues. Footnotes and separate listings might be done, but exclusion from the catalog was also common practice. In all things such a coin is not regarded the same as normal catalog entries. Back when the printed resources were the only references available, hybrids were given very little credence and were practically giveaways. Today however, the resources for attribution online do not make it easy or clear for getting the goods on hybrids. Worse yet, it seems to me that when auction houses list such items and do not point out their status as hybrids, but trumpet the fact that RIC does not list one or another, they are taking unfair advantage of collectors who do not know about this side of the story. Moreover, it now seems there are collectors coming on the scene specifically seeking hybrids as if they are new entries for the next revision of RIC or whatever is to serve as the principle standard reference. Are they speculating on a turn in the marketplace? Can someone closer to the action set me straight on all this? Is there a new status evolving for the hybrids RIC would not list? What new research is the basis for that kind of change?
@dougsmit comes to mind as to who may have an answer. I myself have a couple hybrid denari. Both because theye interested me, curiousity I supose. I've done very little research so far.
Officially produced mules are of great interest and can fetch premium prices. In RIC II.1 they are actually assigned their own catalogue numbers. Unofficial hybrids (barbarous, plated, etc.) not so much.
To answer your question directly: totally unpredictable. Since hybrids, and all unofficial issues comprise a tiny fraction of the coins on the market, it seems impossible (to me) to glean any trends from the sales. You might occasionally have a few collectors that chase a particular coin at auction, while others go completely unnoticed. As to which get chased and which get ignored, your guess is as good as mine. I recently had a Geto-Dacian imitative hybrid denarius which I offered for sale here at CT, and also on eBay. It sat on the shelf for half a year because...I guess people wanted a "real" RR denarius? Then one day a German collector spots it on eBay and snatches it up, asking me if I had any more (I don't) because most collectors that have any are loathe to part with them, which is true. The same thing happened with a few Constantinian bronze hybrids that I offered last year. I don't think there's generally a great deal of demand for unofficial issues, despite the optimistic prices some dealers place on them, but the demand that a handful of specialists have for them is tremendous. How do you chart trends from that?
Thanks for responding guys. You've pretty much confirmed my suspicion that this is a niche market thing, which means thin but dedicated. However, I still don't like it when an auction house hypes an intentionally unlisted item with the tag line, "Not in RIC." True, but a bit misleading, implying an oversight. More accurate and honest would be, "Excluded from RIC.
