I realize that coins with killer eye-appeal, truly rare, semi-key, key, and 69/70 stuff is going for stronger and stronger money, but what the heck is going on with the Type market? In my myopic view of the market, when viewing current price lists and dealers' inventories, it appears that Type coins might actually be softening rather than strengthening with the supposedly growing collector base. Yes, collectors first start off in moderns, but where's all the action in the mid-grade circulated (VF+) Type coins? I've seen some relatively nice stuff in Seated material (not dollars though, can't find many of those), Large Cents, and even halfway decent 2-cent material going for around wholesale to the public. To be honest, I'm afraid to even look at eBay because those prices are likely even lower than what I've been seeing because those auctions tend to go to the bottom feeders (but not always). To add salt to these "wounds", in large part, most type series prices have barely budged in the past few years or so. I keep hearing that dealers' inventories are "tight" and that there's no material. Yet, funny enough, when I do see material, I don't see the pricing pressure. Is there any pricing pressure on circulated 19th century type coins? Are they really so common that there's so much supply to cover the puny demand? I've often wondered at the true surviving numbers of some of the most common Seated stuff, along with 3CN and 2-centers and it boggles the mind that there really is still a bunch of supply out there....or is it just a virtually non-existent demand? What makes it more interesting is that the surviving number of non-problem coins and non-harshly cleaned coins is probably much smaller than most would believe. I'm curious as to your thoughts on this, even if it's an area you don't care about, you might have some insight based on recent personal experience. Modern crap is doing gangbusters (apparently) but what's happening with the circulated 19th century stuff? Old hat? Not enough people care any more? They'd rather buy it for melt or less? Bruce
I don't know anything in this regard but the first thought that comes to my mind is that perhaps demand has been slackening because new collectors are under the impression that the 19th century coins are out of their league or price range. Or maybe the newer collectors are just more familiar with the 20th century coins and events and don't know enough about the 19th century and its coins.
Basically what you are describing is due to the nature of the market. More common coins, and the defintion of common is often determined more by condition than series or date, are often difficult to sell simply because there are so many of them. Buyers want the exceptional coins, coins with great eye appeal, coins they feel they can brag about to their friends. And the market is undergoing a change - at least in my opinion. For the past 5 yrs we have been in a bullish cycle - I think that is about to end. For the modern coins this change started taking place almost 2 yrs ago - that's when prices started dropping. Now it is happening with common coins. The last thing affected will be the key dates and high grade coins.
I have to admit, I hope you're wrong and I largely disagree with you. I do agree that in certain areas, the market has been going "large" and my personal assessment is that those coins are overpriced. Yes, price is a function of demand, but so much of that demand has seem to be created by hype (high-grade modern stuff, semi-keys and keys, etc.). Today, the Seated material (dimes through halves) seem cheap compared to what likely survive and how much they cost several years ago. Where I completely disagree with you is in the 2-3CS-3CN realm. Those prices haven't moved in at least 3 years. Although, 20-cent pieces have been moving at a very strong clip in the last year and I would think that might soften a bit.
The 2 & 3 cent coins never have been very popular or collected by many people. That is largely the reason for lack of movement in price. As for seated material, and older coinage in general, there is a great deal more of it out there than most collectors realize. For example, the last time I did a study on any of it was over 3 yrs ago and it was about bust halves. Would it suprise you to learn that NGC & PCGS alone had slabbed at that time over 56,000 bust half dollars ? Of course that number does not take into account any of the raw coins. And over 26,000 of those slabbed coins were AU50 and above. And for whatever it's worth, you're certainly not alone in disagreeing with me on what is coming in the coin market - most people do
Prices move up and down based on supply and demand. Although the supply of type coins is not enormous, it is greater than most people think and the number of individuals collecting these coins is also lower than you would think. Further, it is very expensive to put together sets of these early coins - which keeps many collectors out of the area with the exception of type collecting. Major movement in the prices of these coins will most likely only occur if there is a major influx of "investor" type collectors and the types of dealers that would market early type coins to them. Consistent upward trending in prices will occur over time as a result of the introduction of a large number of new collectors to the market thanks to the 50 States Quarters program and the new Nickels.
