What is going on with the Roman bronzes?

Dear all,

According to my market observations, Roman bronzes appear to be in free fall.

Well, the least that one can say is that there are quite a couple of items that were sold at bargain lately. One recent example is a well preserved and rare Vespasian sestertius of historical interest that fetched in January 2011 65,000$ and two month ago just 17,000$.



Does anybody have an idea what is going on? Are all collectors rushing to aurei and denarii ignoring the bronzes, which are - from my point of view - more beautiful at least than denarii and are definitely much more difficult to acquire in high-grade?

Greetings,

Marc

 

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Well, it may still be a pretty small data sampling ... I guess time will tell, eh?

Man, I hope that they stay "inexpensive" long enough for me to scoop-up a dozen or so, and then they can sky-rocket in price once again (I have a dream)

 

Dear Steve,

Well, there are some other indicators. Also the Titus sestertius that I introduced and just fetched 15'500 EUR is an example that the euphoric times where the mediocre quality bronzes hurried from one record to the next is somehow past. For instance, a similar coin in lower grade achieved even a higher price three years ago.

sold recently for 15'500 EUR



sold three years ago for translated 16'750 EUR

Well, under this aspect, it is somehow a positive development.

 

Hmmm? ... well at this rate, in a few months I'm hoping to buy AncientJoe's awesome Coliseum-coin for about five or six hundred bucks!?



... just jokes, AJ (that coin is a classic)

 

Recently I was going to start a thread about how expensive Ancients seem to be, at least in the lower grades to which I gravitate. I would love to see the prices tumble a bit to where I can afford better graded coins, but somehow, I don't think they will become that cheap. I don't collect my coins with an eye to making money off them at some time in the future, but I know others do just that. I believe it was Doug who said it will be up to his heirs to dispose of his collect as they see fit. That is just how I feel. My collection is for me to enjoy. But, back to the original point, I would be very happy to be able to acquire coins like the ones posted above by Marc when the prices tumble.

 

I'm with Bing. Let them tumble. If the market comes down, I'll be able to afford better pieces. If anyone is collecting ancient coins for their investment potential, they seriously need to have their head examined.

 

=> wha?

... what do you mean that they're not a good investment?!! (*awkward*)

=> I have everything that I own riding-on the fact that "animal-coins" are gonna be the future!!! ... I am banking-on sending Buster and Larry to Dog-College!!

JA => please do "not" rain on my parade!!

 

According to my dealer, one of the forces at work in these cases is the effort of individual auction houses to stimulate bidding and inflate prices by promoting certain coins to specific clients who are known by the auction house to be interested in those coins. As a result, a bidding war ensues and the coin ends up going for 5x - 10x the "estimate" and probably 2x - 3x the price that it would have fetched without the pre-auction hype. A year or two later, the losing bidders have moved on to other coins and the winning bidder is left with a coin that might be worth less than half what he/she paid for it.

Here's what I think may be an example of the above: In the August 2014 Heritage auction this Hadrian (in which I was interested) went for $80,000 (NOT including buyer's fee) on an estimate of $40,000:



Part of Heritage's description was "... certainly among the finest known Hadrian aurei..." My dealer recommended against bidding on this coin due to his knowledge that Heritage was actively promoting it to several of its favorite clients.

Yet less than one year earlier, in the Roma Numismatics Limited auction of September 29, 2013, this coin sold for less than $11,000 (not including buyer's fee)! Roma's description of it only included "... near extremely fine..." while Heritage described it as "MS★ 5/5 - 5/5" and "...deeply struck... with full 'mint bloom'"

While I think the coin was certainly undervalued in the Roma auction, it's clear that an almost $70,000 increase in price in less than a year is mostly due to Heritage's aggressive promotion and hyperbole-laced description of the coin.

Consider this Titus sestertius from NAC May 2013:




This went for 150,000 CHF (about $157,000) on an estimate of 40,000 CHF. My maximum bid wasn't even close on this one. NAC described it as:

"A sestertius of extraordinary quality with a portrait of enchanting beauty work of a very talented master-engraver. Struck in high relief on a very large flan retaining its original lustre exactly as it would have appeared in Rome in the first century AD. Virtually as struck and almost Fdc..."

Really? There is either a little wear on the obverse and reverse or some evidence of a weak strike (note the wreath on the obverse and the head of Pax on the reverse) but that didn't stop NAC from what I consider to be a misuse of the description "FDC." Who knows what this coin might bring at auction today?

With respect to prices of aurei, especially 12 Caesars issues: My dealer tells me that in the past 3 - 4 years, Russian billionaires have become extremely active in purchasing Roman aurei, as have certain Arab oil sheikhs. For this reason I don't expect 1st and 2nd century Roman gold to ever revert back to their 2010 prices, at least not those aurei that are considered rare, EF, or among the finest of their type.

 

I've read this as well on several forums.

 

This is very interesting. Maybe, one should say rather that the prices are pretty dependent on how the auction houses are promoting the coins than that the prices are tumbling. Despite to the fact that every collector can access via sixbid to all the auction forms worldwide, it definitely plays a significant role where a coin is sold.

 

Incidentally, I just found at acsearch.info a very meaningful example that is illustrating the promotion theme.

In January 2013 at Ponterio & Associates, this rare Pupienus sestertius was sold for 1'550 USD + fee.



Identical the same coin fetched in this year's NAC's spring sale translated 12'290 USD, i.e. roughly a ten times higher price!



Well, this example depicts that it is worth being sovereign.

 

I agree, and IdesofMarch01's post is completely accurate. As a side note: I've heard some dealers talking about the first sestertius you posted (the ex. Dr. Patrick Tan collection coin) and they said it is of sub-par quality but photographs well. Apparently that occurred for many of his coins and he lost a fair amount of money when reselling so soon as he bought very aggressively. I don't think it's indicative of a shift in the market. The Titus sestertii are another interesting one: in your previous thread, the coin Doug linked to does have an intriguing portrait style, but is it justifiable of such a higher price? That's hard to say for me...

I'll post a couple of anecdotal examples from my own purchasing in the last few years. I usually try to avoid writing prices but I'll include them here (they're all easily searchable anyway):

I bought this stater of Alexander the Great privately for $12,500, not in an NGC holder and without any superlatives like "among the finest known" written.



It's a beautiful coin and most of the known examples of this type are in a high grade but Heritage sold one less than 12 hours after I bought mine which was a bit worse but in an NGC Ch MS 5/5 holder... for $41K! I was shocked at that price but even worse, I've found it for sale now privately for considerably more! This, along with other data, leads me to believe that some people look just for the high graded NGC slabs and pay significant premiums because of what the slab says.

My Eid Mar denarius is an interesting one as it was sold right when two others sold:



Lanz is generally much less attended than auction houses like NAC and that definitely factored in to the price. People go to NAC and expect to pay strong prices and there are usually many high-end coins in a single sale, which attracts more bidders. There were only a few dealers in attendance at Lanz and the photographs of the coin were quite bad but should it have sold for only $260K when this coin sold for $160K a few days earlier at NAC?



The price of the NAC coin is unfathomable considering the quality (or lack thereof), but it only takes two bidders to establish a price...

More specifically to bronze coins now, I purchased my Colosseum sestertius through Heritage but the sale was very poorly attended and their photographs were quite atrocious: (admittedly, it is a hard coin to photograph well but these newer pictures I've taken capture it accurately)



I was willing to go a fair amount higher and was very surprised to have won it, for under 2x the estimate ($145K in total). There were very few bidders and I've had several dealers say that if it had been sold at a popular NAC sale, it would easily cost 200K CHF.

But, Heritage is certainly not always less expensive, further evidenced by this dekadrachm:



It is by far the most expensive unsigned dekadrachm to ever sell (just at this ANA show as well). It was in an NGC AU* holder and is indeed quite fantastic, but it cost $340K, which is a staggering price. I would have paid $150K for it and was seriously considering it as many thought it wouldn't progress past the opening price, although that was already strong.

This sale was well advertised and this coin in particular had articles written about it, had dealers talking about it, and really created a "buzz" when it was sold.

Prices vary within the same auction house from sale to sale as well. This coin failed to sell at Roma in 2012 for 5000 GBP but I had to pay 11000 GBP to acquire it earlier this year:



Finally, I acquired my other main bronze coin recently at NAC and I happily set a record price for it (not adjusting for inflation or appreciation of earlier examples). Port of Ostia sestertii are fairly available but after seeing it in person, this one was quite worth the price in my eyes:



So, in the end, it depends on a handful of factors: what auction house a coin is sold in, what other coins are sold at that auction, what the market and dealers are saying about a particular coin, what the auction house says about the coin (finest known, etc.), what the photographs look like, and, finally, what the actual coin looks like.

Personally, I don't think nice bronze coins are in a freefall - quite the opposite. I have also heard that many big bidders (Russian billionaires in particular) have stayed away from bronze coins so far, so it's very possible that prices could climb substantially if they enter the market.

I suspect that the prices realized at the upcoming JDL Collection Part II will be earthshattering. It does make it difficult to determine prices when there are so many variables, but the challenge makes it enjoyable!

 

I 100% agree with you. The difficulty or challenge is to get a feeling of what the coin's quality and reasonable price is.

When I read about what you were writing regarding the difference between Lanz and NAC, I was remembering the last Lanz sale and this enchanting and unique Probus denarius vended there. I was wondering for some weeks what could be a reasonable price for this splendid item and I did not have the the courage to press the button as somebody put the final bid since I could not judge whether or not the price is still reasonable.



BTW, bronzes are particular difficult since quite many of them are painted to conceal serious problems. Maybe, this is one reason why not only collectors but especially investors might refrain from purchasing bronzes and rush to gold or silver coins, which might be considered to be less risky.

 

Good answers to your posts OP. I agree with them as well.

Another factor to ackowledge is simply randomness. I see it many times. One time two people will just HAVE to have a certain coin, the next time it sells those two bidders are not there. I see it all of the time. The Constantine VII with Christopher solidus I got went for $350 less than auctions just a month before. Why? NO real reason, but i was happy about it.

Another randomness factor is coin preferences. Some prefer one kind of condition and don't mind a certain type of defect, another buyer just the opposite. Especially with ancients no two coins are alike, so what you and some dealers might say is a better example might not be viewed the same by the bidders.

 

Well, I sure hope that your Russian Billionaires continue to think that your coins are super-cool ...

... anyway ... keep-up the good work

 

This is an insight that wouldn't have occurred to me, and I think that it may be a major factor driving some of the price escalation of high quality Roman coins in the past year or two.

Although I work with a very experienced dealer and have him ALWAYS evaluate a potential coin in person, there are many buyers of highly priced ancients who are not experienced nor experts, and simply rely on the auction house's catalog's description of the coin in lieu their own evaluation. A slabbed coin probably gives them even more comfort, misplaced though this comfort may be.

I don't particularly like this trend...

 

Me either. At our last ancient coin club meeting, our one member who would have coins you and Joe would drool over, and operate in the same market as you two, (passes around XF lifetime portrait Caesars to look at like candy and owns an Eide Mar bought in the 70's), also commented on the impact Heritage is having, as well as slabbed coins. He also hates slabs, but says the impact of this new money into ancients, being facilitated by slabbing and Heritage's name, is impacting prices.

 

Great thread. Thanks for the insights and opinions, everyone!

 

I agree, thank you very much, this was a good discussion. I learned a lot - good coins need good promotion to cause their price to skyrocket.

 

I think you are exactly correct - I always rely on a second (or third) opinion when buying bronze coins. The small number of dealers that specialize in them have to gain much more expertise than precious metal coins as bronze introduces far more variables.