Uncirculated Mint Sets (Value vs Mintage)

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I think they simply filled all the demand and with coin collecting not growing much -- and folks not interested in something that comes out every year -- the price can't move.

That's why I like the classics like Saints and Morgans and other stuff like that: they don't make more every year !

 

My GF got me a 2020 set for about $40 right around xmas and they look great. I'd like to have a mint and proof set from every year just because I've currently got from about 1960-1990 mint sets with a few random proof sets sprinkled in there.

 

The 2020 mint set had the lowest mintage since the 1959 set. Its value has risen to $46 on the bay. The 2021 set is still selling at the mint. I'm guessing that it will eventually overtake the 2020 mintage as it was a late release. Here is a chart of mint set values versus mintage since 1999.

 

The 2020 mint set (COVID year) had the lowest mintage since the 1959 set. Its value has risen to above $40 on the bay. The 2021 and 2022 set are still selling at the mint with both years exceeding the 2020 mintage. It seems that 2022 will eventually overtake 2021 based on current trends. Here is a chart of mint set values versus mintage since 1999.

 

It's like 2020 is special because of Covid....weird.

 

Please only touch while wearing an N95 mask

 

Good information thanks for sharing @Phil Ham

 

The last two years have been good for proof set prices and very very good for mint sets.

 

But historically my understanding is the old supply dominates the new demand, right ?

 

These seem to be worse than a disaster to by from the mint at issue price.
I got some from the 1970s in my mom’s stuff, looked them up, and put them in a file cabinet.
But looking at @Phil Ham ’s chart I’m thinking it might be a great time to back fill what’s missing to 2010 or so.
Those are nominal dollars. Say I made $5/hr in 1999. That’s three hours of work to buy a mint set. I bought tacos.
Along comes 2023 and that 1999 mints set costs what I make in 10 minutes.
Something else to think about spending money on. Lol

 

I bought the 1999 set for much more than it's worth. If you bet on FTX, you may want to bet on mint sets from 1999 to present.

 

I can’t understand crypto but I understand roulette. I’d go through 2010, like I said, but wait on the other to drop.

 

Bidding on multiple years at once might be the way to go.

 

It's more complex than simply a comparison of mint set availability to the demand for mint sets. This is largely the result of two factors; more importantly most of the demand is for individual coins to be sold at retail and most of the supply is tarnished.

Fewer than 30% of some dates survive but one or two coins in them are in great demand. As collectors are picking off sets and the flow to wholesalers is being choked off we're finding that even at this very late date the only supply for most moderns is mint sets. This means supplies are not being augmented by modern collections coming into coin shops because there are so few. There aren't stashes of rolls and bags of clads or even all of the cents and nickels.

So far the problem is strictly wholesale availability of Ikes and half dollars but, I believe, this is going to spread as the stigma of collecting moderns goes away.

Higher prices are not serving to preserve sets very well because singles still are the source of demand. Plus many sets have tarnished so badly they can not be sold and will be dismantled for the face value. The biggest difference now is that most of the nice coins from cut up sets are being saved instead of spent as they were in the past.

Eventually a multi-tier market will arise for mint sets to differentiate the garbage from retail friendly to choice/ Gem sets. People will be amazed by the huge spread in these tiers. Bear in mind however that I don't intend to be involved in the sale of intact mint sets. I saved the finest 20 of every date I ever encountered at great effort and most of these just tarnished so now I have cut them up and stabilized the coins in acetone. Some of these sets were and were still just stupendous but it's the coins that need to survive so now, more than ever, mint sets are merely the raw material of most modern markets.

 

Great analysis....as far as the Mint and Proof sets I grew up with in the 1960's and 1970's and 1980's....those LARGELY haven't really appreciated, right ?

 

Am I mistaken that those copper 2009s are the lowest mintage of the Lincoln series?

 

Depends on your perspective.

These are exactly the sets I'm talking about. The %age that have been destroyed is much higher than the older sets.

If you're just looking at the bid on the sets most have only about doubled or a little more but my perspective is different because I see the premiums to face value. It is these premiums that have sky rocketed. The premiums are closely correlated to what I can sell the pieces for so are of paramount interest. Where premiums used to be measured in a few cents they are now measured in a few dollars.

At the same time I can also sell Gems at even greater premiums because of the cost to find them yourself. Two years ago you could buy a few mint sets and be assured of finding a Gem. Even the toughest Gems like the '76 type I Ikes required only 200 1975 mint sets. At a small premium this was not very costly but this set now has a $5 premium so the cost of the coin is $1000 making it far easier to sell mine.

Going forward I think we'll see the continued rapid drawdown in the availability on the sets and much higher prices on chBU and Gem coinage from them. Indeed, just about any of the coins that aren't tarnished should get some sort of premium.

Few people have any appreciation of the difficulty of obtaining choice specimens of most moderns. Coins like 1968 and 1984 cents are almost invariably spotted or having very unattractive surfaces. The '84 is probably legitimately rare in Gem but I've only looked in a few dozen "BU" rolls. These coins come awful and most are rolls are skunked; they've oxidized. Even if you find a nice roll the coins are ugly. Only about 1% of mint set coins have nice surfaces and most of these are spotted now days. This applies across the board to a greater or lesser extent. The coins have always been tough but it wasn't known because there was no demand. Now the demand is there.

98% of '68 cents are carbon spotted and many of the rest are tarnished and can't be cleaned. Gems of this date were once extremely common but now most of the mint sets are gone and the survivors are tarnished. So when you see these new higher prices don't forget they are mostly for tarnished sets.

Yes, there are still millions and millions of mint sets but if you look closer you'll see many of the coins that should be in one are not or is not a choice specimen.