I have a chance at a $5 proof ngc pf70dc, a $10 ms70 ngc and a $25 ms70 gold buffalo, All of them are 2008 w. I was going to trade two 2009 $50 buffalos for them . Do you think this would be a good trade?
That's probably not a bad deal for you. IMHO, you're simply trading guaranteed bullion for slightly numismatic coins. The only reason I say slightly is because many people view buffalo's as bullion ONLY. The best part is that you're trading for the best, can't beat 70's!! But, at current pricing, I think you would come out slightly ahead.
While it's easy to agree with the masses and I usually don't, I will agree we are currently in a coin mini-boom and TPG "70" frenzy. And while it may be a fad in the eyes of many, people will always want the best. There will always be ego's and money to spend on the best of the best. With that said, the trade is basically a gamble or "investment" that the 70 frenzy will continue because at currently market pricing its a good trade. It's a bit of an oxymoron, but the older traditionalists have more experience and seen coin booms in the past. They hopefully learned from them, so I would actually put more weight in their opinion than current market value.
More than anything Irish, my opinion is based on the fact that prices for 70 coins have been steadily dropping for about 9 years now. I see no reason for that trend to change. Rather I think they will drop even faster in the years to come.
Doug, I will assume we're still talking about modern commemoratives. I have not tracked higher graded modern commemoratives nearly as long as you, but it doesn't seem to be THAT much of a premium even now. Considering the percentages of 70 coins with total coins minted on those commems minted before 2009, exactly how much can they drop? Many 69's are already within 10% of what you can buy a raw coin for. In the land of "I'm better than you and what I have is more valuable" what do they have to turn to except 70's? btw, I'm not disagreeing, I'm asking an extremely educated numismatist his opinion.
Guess I'll be the 5th to agree! Keep what you have, 2009 buffs are really cool and are very hot in the market. No reason to trade.
Oh I agree the 69s can't drop much more. But the 70s still have a ways to go yet. Problem is people have refused to believe it for 10 years now. To put things in perspective a bit, 10-11 years ago common date ASEs in 69 were selling for around $150 each. Some 70s were over $1500. Some were over $3000. Compare that to today. And remember, 10 years ago silver was around $5 an ounce.
