. . . over the past couple of weeks and next week, all PCGS or NGC slabbed MS64-66RD, all from one seller. I think he has three PCGS slabbed MS65RD examples and a couple of MS66RD examples for sale in the next week alone, not to mention the dozen or so in similar grades he has sold there over the past couple of weeks. WOW! It seems to be an unending supply. I can't imagine how long it would take one guy to accumulate so many of these coins. I would think it would have taken many years. Anyway, it is like nothing I have ever seen before. How about you?
As a collector of 1909 coins, I too noticed the listings of the particular eBay seller. If you search the PCGS certification numbers of the slabs being sold (and the numbers near those already listed) you'll see several MS66RD 1909-S VDB cents and a few grading MS66+RD. Based on the certification number searches, I'd guess he has around 20 of them in MS66RD and about 5 in MS66+RD, and a bunch of MS65RDs as well. I would guess that the owner already had these coins in PCGS holders and recently sent them in for Secure Plus regrades in an attempt to upgrade some with + grades. The other possibility is that the owner had a very nice original roll lying around and submitted it for grading and got back some awesome grades. I would guess that isn't the case and that they are just regrades given that I didn't notice the PCGS population reports make a significant jump in 66RD. Also, I would be surprised someone would still have an original roll lying around after 100+ years and after 25+ years of professional grading being available. In any event, the seller definitely has a nice hoard of very high end examples of the key date Lincoln Cent.
I have also noticed alot of high grade 09-S VDB's popping up all over the place on e bay. Many from the same seller, mostly MS-64 to MS-66 RD's with nice prices. Personally, I would not want to buy something like that off of e bay. I have heard of a counterfeit PCGS slab scandal before and it really scares me.
Here's a MS-66 RD. Very expensive.... http://cgi.ebay.com/1909-S-VDB-Linc...66?pt=Coins_US_Individual&hash=item3cb1131572
Two of his auctions for an MS66 (might have been a +) went for $12,800 and $13,500 roughly... intense auctions to watch.
Correct. I went back and looked at his auctions I as watching. Here are some links for you guys: MS66RD: http://cgi.ebay.com/1909-S-VDB-Lincoln-Cent-MS66RD-PCGS-No-Reserve-/260668850343 http://cgi.ebay.com/1909-S-VDB-Lincoln-Cent-MS66RD-PCGS-No-Reserve-/260671910180 MS65RD: http://cgi.ebay.com/1909-S-VDB-Lincoln-Cent-MS65RD-PCGS-No-Reserve-/260668803521 MS64RD: http://cgi.ebay.com/1909-S-VDB-Lincoln-Cent-MS64RD-PCGS-No-Reserve-/260668812690 http://cgi.ebay.com/1909-S-VDB-Lincoln-Cent-MS64RD-PCGS-No-Reserve-/260672779084 What do you think the MS66+ would fetch if he put it up for auction instead of BIN?
$25,000 +/- $2,500 If there really were only 6 coins graded 66+RD as claimed, with only a handful graded 67RD, then I think the price would be closer to $35,000. However, there are only 6 graded 66+RD so far!!!! There are well over 100 coins in PCGS 66RD out there that have never been into SecurePlus regrading to see if they deserve a + as well. Until that happens (which it may never happen) collectors will never know how many of those coins really are 66+RD coins, surely a few of them will get the plus, but perhaps 20-30 or more of them are deserving?? So far I have seen collectors really hesitant to pay really strong premiums for + graded coins because it's not clear how many of them will ultimately exist. Another example of this is the 1909 Liberty nickel in MS66 which was a pop 22/0 coin for awhile. Then, once + grading came out, someone got one regraded MS66+ so that is now a pop 1/0 coin and the rest of us with MS66 coins suddenly have a pop 22/1 coin. Is the new MS66+ coin now worth a premium in the market??? Sure, I think it's worth a slight premium, especially for a Registry collector. But does it deserve a moon money premium that would be given to a true pop 1/0 coin?? Heck no, not until ALL of the other 21 MS66 coins go in for a shot a plus grade to see what the true population of MS66+ coins really is. Accordingly, I think the SVDB 66+RD coins are worth some premium but not a crazy premium. Moreover, someone bidding on one of his 66+RD examples is likely to know that he also has 4-5 other MS66+RD examples which are likely to pop up in later sales. That alone may reduce the selling prices knowning that several are likely to be available, and not just a single example.
Just a question on the technical terms you're using; pop 22/0, pop 21/0, etc. What do each of the numbers mean in that fraction, the amount graded in that condition and those graded higher? I.E. a one of a kind PF 70 coin would be pop. 1/0? Are these registry terms? Sorry just wanted to clarify I am not familiar with them and I'm new to the registry
That is correct. Pop 22/0 in my example means 22 examples graded MS66 with none graded in any higher grades. Since PCGS considers MS66+ a separate higher grade, when one grades MS66+ it becomes a Pop 1/0 coin, as it's the only example, still with none higher, and the rest become Pop 21/1 coins as there are 21 MS66 coins remaining with a single MS66+ coin graded higher.
This guy is the King of the Lincoln Cents! Those are some seriously nice coins. I wonder what the real story behind them all being in his posession is.
It appears to me and some other coin dealers that the "market maker" for 1909 S VDB's is no longer supporting the coins.... Basically he's run the price up by buying LOTS of them and now he's selling. Prices for the coins are down in the last several weeks. I have heard from some of the bigger dealers that they are bringing 10%-20% less now then they were just a few months ago.
I think what someone else said earlier, that he had an old roll that he sent in for grading, is probably what the case was for this guy