The Future of this Hobby

Moderators, you can move this if you like. I didn't know if it should be put in the "open" file or here.

As many of you know the coin collecting community has seen a steady and healthy growth period for about 10 years now and it seems like it will continue on this path, at least for a little while.

What do you think the future will hold for coin collecting 5, 10, 15+ years from now?

This is my uneducated theory...

Our society, technologically speaking, is growing faster than most people can keep up with. Computers are out-dating themselves by almost 50% in less than 6 months. Internet banking is saturating our "favorites folder" and creating new believers each day. Personal identification technology is being used all over the world. And, most importantly, electronic transactions are becoming the preferred method of payment in order to rack up those sky mile points.

I don't know what the inside track holds, but it seems that within ~10 years, our pennies, nickels, dimes, quarters, dollars, etc, will be tethered to our key chains in various forms of plastic. Eliminating all needs for cash or coinage. If this is true, how will it impact our community?

My opinion, it will provide a huge economic boost to the whole industry. Many people ask coin collectors and dealers what type of coins to collect for future investments. Most of them are running off collecting gold, silver or platinum bullion, hoping it will pay off. I for one think that "ALL" coins will drastically increase in value. As each day passes, we draw near the inevitable date when coins will no longer be created, making them that much more desirable.

What are your thoughts?

 

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Well personally if coins get much worse design wise then i might be glad to see the back of the future issues, from an artistic perspective.

But i can't help but think, i personally (and alot of others), actually like having money in it's physical form in front of us (even the base metal stuff), it's better than a card saying you have 70 credits to spend and a chocolate bar costs 6 credits.

 

It'd be alot more hygenic though!

 

You're likely right that the days of coins are numbered, but it will probably be a lot farther in the future than you envision. While coinage becoming obsolete would be good for prices in the short run it will kill the hobby on a mass scale in the longer run. Within just a couple generations there will probably be very little collecting because it's mainly circulating coins that interest people in collecting and even provide a frame of reference.

 

(Some numbers are integers.)

 

(Some numbers are real.)

 

Money is fast becoming obsolete. The majority of legal transactions today involve credit cards, debit cards, checks, direct deposits, direct withdrawls, and money wire transfers. As far as coin collecting is concerned, who knows. It may become more of a subject matter thing then coins themselves, for instance a collector of Afro-American artifacts might be interested in the Washington Carver silver dollars and someone interested in Presidential history might want choice coins or bills bearing the likeness of such. Then again who knows. It might also be the person who wants to invest in silver and gold that might drive the market in the future as well. One thing that I think you can bank on is that anything of quality usually retains it's value.

 

I would like to point out that whilst in the US the majority of collectors might get into collecting from change and then progressivly shifting back.

It seems the majority of UK collectors get into collecting from finding, or having a bag of old (pre-decimal) coins left to them. And it nearly always is predecimal coins (from the 1960s and earlier) that start the Brit off collecting. Infact i've never met one yet that started from change. Infact i don't know any that do collect decimal Brit coins seriously, ever. They're totally ignored by all of us. Including me, but i ignore everything after 1799, and practically everything after 1558 unless it's gold or a groat or a sixpence.

 

I feel happiest when dealing in coins from 975-1558.

 

I think you missed my point when I said that it's primarily circulating coinage that gets people interested in the mass hobby. I should have been more specific and didn't mean that this is true for all individuals. It's certainly true that my interest in circulating issued never waned as most collectors' did but the point is that it is circulating coinage that got most collectors today and in the past started. Most of we old timers started back in the days of silver and obsolete types in circulation. It was these very differences which spurred our interest. Today there is a new generation of collectors who again are interested in circulating coinage (or at least collector versions of circulating coins). In between there were few new collectors added to the ranks. Indeed were it not for the fact that the generation of collectors were moving into their peak earning years there likely would have been far more substantial losses in valuation when things bottomed out in 1995.

It really should be pointed out that our coinage now is just as "historic" as any other coinage. If age were the only measure of desirability or even a large one then ancients would be the most valuable coins. A 1969 quarter might have sat in Armstrong's locker at Cape Kennedy while he walked on the moon more than a generation ago. It might have been used by Nixon to make a decision.

 

I've said it before and i'll say it again.

If you collect for history (as well as design, metal etc.) then you generally collect coins from the area and period that interests you.

 

You may be right GD for after all we are still driving automobiles that use combustable engines. Talking about dated technology. However, I feel that coins and later dollars and then checks will soon be phased out due to the cost of handling them by businesses, banks, etc. I do not think that this will come from the government but from businesses that will just not accept them and by companies that will start rounding their goods out to the highest dollar. All of this will be done on the quiet as it is being done now with debit cards and the like. Now the government makes money with the sale of coins so most likely silver and gold bullion coins will still be minted and sold to collectors and investors. But what do I know, I own a house built on sand. Go figure Florida.

 

(The future of the hobby lies ahead.)

 

(Nothing ventured, nothing gained.)

 

"Also, I found it interesting that Sylvester said that in the UK only pre-decimal gets people into collecting. I have a sister-in-law from the UK and the last time we met, she had some "round pounds" four in fact, one celebrating Scotland, England, Wales, and Ireland, if I understand the heraldry on the reverse. I wondered how they would look in Proof! So, we do see eye-to-eye on your main point."




Moderns aren't really popular anywhere. In the US the post 1998 coins are extremely popular but these are truly a different class simply because they are popular. I refer to them as ultra moderns. Everyone I talk to in England agrees that the decimal coinage is mostly ignored. Of course this coinage is still being made so even though there's lots of different coins in circulation there aren't any thought of as obsolete type unless they still see the occasional shilling.

There is some mass interest now days in European moderns. The old German 5M cu/ni coins list for prices up to $4,200 in typical unc. These coins were made through the '50's and '60's and it's been known for years that people neglected to save them. Other recently obsolete European coins have attracted a great deal more interest also. These coins have been escalating sharply in price for some time but it's not because they're popular it's because the tiny demand swamps the tinier supply. With many moderns if they ever become popular most people will simply have to collect them in circulated grades, but this will prove problematic with some issues since vast numbers of these have simply been melted when they were no longer used as money.

When a new coinage is issued there is a tendency for the old to get saved and many new collectors and collections to get started. This hasn't really happened in this country, but it may just be a more drawn out process since the older coins are held in near universal disdain. Certainly though the demand for moderns has increased many fold even if it is still at a very low level.

 

Unfortunately, I can't answer many of your questions because I lack the experience in those fields. However, regarding your forth question, I think the internet is/will definitely hurt "most" small coin dealers. But, I do think there is a way to steer the general public away from purchasing items on the internet. They just need to figure out how. The same problem faces all retail business, too.

Coin dealers are like any other business with four walls, but I don't think they operate in the same sense. Take jewelry stores for instance, they advertise, market, and many focus on customer service in order to bring people through the door. Why should coin dealers operate differently? Coins are like jewelry; both can be graded, both can contain precious medals, both can be considered art, both make great gifts, and both can be as cheap or expensive as one likes. However, I do think coins have a couple bonuses; coins have more historic value and they are considered a hobby (I know many of our wives would debate the last one).

So, basically I think the future of coin dealers, big and small, belongs in their hands and they should be able to prosper as a retail business just like any other business in this country.

 

Hello RePeat,

In order for something like that plastic-on-a-keychain to work everybody (or most people) would have to agree to it. I don't know if that will be possible in 5, 10 or 15 years.

There are a lot of collectors to consider as well. Remember, the U.S. Mint makes a great deal of money (profit) by selling coin sets, etc. So, there is that to consider. Coin collectors LIKE the possibility of getting a nice and/or rare/scarce coin in change. If we don't use change anymore, that likelihood will vanish.

Besides that, there is the psychological aspect of having something cold, hard and tangible in your hands that is worth something. So, there will be a lot of hurdles to get over before anything like you describe can really happen. And those are only a few, there are, I would guess, many other reasons as well.

JDSCOIN

 

Hello GDJMSP, thank you for the welcome!

Since I am not certain just who YOU are at the moment, I really can't say. But since you are from Utah and I don't know many people from Utah, I'd have to say 'no'.

But you do meet a lot of people in this hobby and it's not entirely out of the question. If you want to tell me more about yourself or about the person that you might have thought me to be (by email if you like), then we can figure this out. I collect a lot of different kinds of coins and tokens - U.S., Foreign, and Ancient.

John

PS: I'm trying to get used to posting in a forum format such as this and I am trying to avoid posting mistakes. I think that I may just kind of look at posts by other people and try to figure out what I may and may not do. The "Preview Reply" button is very helpful. Thank you again!