Before I go too far, I would like to point out that I do know that the coin market, like all markets, tend to be cyclical - you have your ups, you have your downs. Right now, as I understand it, we are on an up cycle, although I have to take the word of those more experienced, because I have only avidly collected for a relatively short amount of time, and I have not studied past years price levels for direct information. I have heard of the silver boom, but I did not experience it, because I was a young kid at the time. Now I see people talking about it - when will the shoe drop? When will the bottom fall out? There was an article about it in the latest issue of The Numismatist. I had no arguments with the top ten reasons listed in the article - however, I felt that #3 (Collector Knowledge) should have been #1, as I think that point outweighs the importance of the other 9 issues combined. My question is pretty simple, how much of the market is tied into speculation? With so many people looking for the bear market to begin, and many of those people have the opinion that it will be particularly difficult bear market, would it be any wonder when and if that comes to pass? In this article, this point was somewhat touched upon with #2, relating to consumer confidence. I'm not an overly intelligent person, but I know enough to watch what the smart people - those more informed and experienced - are saying. It concerns me when these people have a decidedly glum look at the future. Their opinions can hold a significant sway in the market. Will the prices fall - absolutely. No doubt about it. Point blank, it will happen. It's the nature of the beast. I just wonder how much is self-fulfilling prophecy, and how much is healthy market correction.
My opinion only... There is both speculation and value in the coin market. I think collectors are overpaying for many very high grade and key date coins because the prices have gone up fairly steadily for a pretty long time. So they are speculating on a continuation of the past pattern of price increases. I think they are the ones most likely to be burned. On the value side, there are some gold and silver coins out there that sell near or at modest premiums to their bullion value. The problem with this approach is that most people fall in love with the idea of owning certain coins or sets and don't necessarily want what is relatively inexpensive and/or unpopular. So maybe I'm lucky in that I can be happy owning just about anything provided it seems like a bargain at the time I purchase it. The wildcard lies outside of the numismatic market and could be a blind spot for the experts expecting prices to decline. That is the fate of the US dollar. If it resumes it's decline, as some observers expect, today's coin prices could appear reasonable or even cheap ten years from now. So coin prices seem high, and are high, but may not be as high as they seem and could go a lot higher. When you say "Will the prices fall - absolutely", you could be disappointed. Nothing is absolute in an economy with a declining currency.
I personal believe it will get really crazy in the next comeing years, I mean since the gradeing companies are under the gun with grades, to low to high, the advancement of technoligy will take gradeing into the new arena!! Computer gradeing the coin is in the works as we speak!!3D scans and such are being developed, so all those graded coins in holders will be re-summited, (More money) for the new gradeing system(more accurate)thats why Istill try and buy RAW coins now, but still will get slabed if the cost is right.......This type of gradeing market will EXPLODE!!!!!and many folks with already slabed coins will be ****ed!!.
Rick...you and I agree on this mostly I think....we are few and mostly the older school of collectors will agree with us...but the newer younger school won't. I guess its from being around the guys on WINS...the old CW forum...this forum that had made me this way...like the old school. The market will come down....someday...someway or another it will come down. Will we all see it??...I can't say....I can put a date down as the day that the market will fall. People for too long have seen the up trend and think that it means that it will only keep going up....they think silver is going to never come down....they think that they market is strong when it is NOT. Look back a few years and you will see on places like Heritage coins (Modern coins) selling for big bucks...but keep going...you will see the SAME coins selling weeks later for much cheaper prices...what happend??...the market fell. People say that the market might have done this type of thing before but this time it is a new type and it won't come down....give me a break...since when did they get to know all of that....I don't know much either but history does repeat itself and nobody can say it doesn't. People say that gold will hit $1000....it may....but if it does there will be a rush to sell and what will happen...either the market will fall or the Gov will do the same thing it did in 1933.....and nobody say that the Gov can't because of some law that was passed in the 80's....to most people in the Gov a law is something that can be changed at the drop of a hat. There is LOTS in speculation......some people on this forum are in speculation.....I can't help that but looked what happend in the 70's....people on Wall St and all over put their money in speculation and it fell...some were lucky (if that is a word) and sold before it fell...some didn't and ripped off others with a HYPED up sale. I think you will see what I mean....I agree....I didn't read the article in the ANA because I thought it would make me mad...most articles like that do. Have a good night.....I feel soo much better after saying that!!!! Speedy
