The Coin Dealer Newsletter - The Greysheet - is it good for pricing?

When you read on the greysheet website (coin dealer) it says that it is wholesale pricing. I've gotten several of their subscriptions and I gotta say - I dont know anywhere that coins are selling for these prices. They are either too low but mostly just way too high on the semi-key and key date coins. I compared several coins to auctions on ebay and prices realized on well known auctions sites (such as heritage) for prices paid including the buyer's premium and if someone paid those prices just to even try to make a 10% profit they would lose money.

Just 2 Examples:

Greysheet September 2014 says an 1893-S Morgan Silver Dollar in VG BIDS at $2,500 and Asks at $2,700. Looking at auctions though It looks like on major auction sites even with buyer's premium it sells for under 2,500 and on ebay if you got 2500 before fees you are doing well.

Greysheet September 2014 says a 1909-S VDB Lincoln Cent Red-Brown (key date for series) Bids at $1,350 and Asks at $1,475. Again, looking at auctions for MS63RB for the past few months - sellers are netting (after fees) less than $1,300 so how can a dealer pay $1,350 ever?

Also - greysheet is not even for graded/certified coins. Who could possibly pay that kind of money for raw coins that they are personally grading as such?


I'm pretty frustrated about this and want to know anyone else's experience. How can they say they are wholesale prices when I just havent seen that to be true.

 

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no, the greysheets is a waste of money. Not realistic prices.

 

Like I wrote in another thread, they are AVERAGES. Anyone looking at any price guide has to realize it means on average, since no two coins are alike. I don't know these markets, but I bet you if the CDN says the average 93s in VG bids for $2500 you can find some going more, and some going less. It depends on the quality of the coin. I know people would like it to be exact, but it can't. No two coins are alike.

Regarding raw versus slabbed, I pay that kind of money if I know what I am doing. Slabs are only of benefit for those who don't know how to grade.

 

Hi Medorman - thanks for the reply! I disagree regarding raw vs slabbed - they are not only a benefit to those who do not know how to grade because even if you "know what you are doing" regarding grading coins there is still much subjectivity in it and you may believe a coin to be an MS63 but if you go to sell it and can't find a buyer that agrees - you gotta go get it slabbed and that costs money, time AND could very well come back an MS62 etc. If you feel confident in your grading abilities to buy a coin and keep it in your personal collection (rather than for resell) than it does not matter because the only one you have to convince of that grade is yourself. If slabbed coins only benefitted those who dont know how to grade - it wouldn't be a multi-million dollar industry.

Also - the greysheet is not like the red book or other price guides as its supposed to be a very trusted source for pricing coins for buying AND selling - for dealers and it comes out weekly - not a shot in the dark average. CDN says themselves that their bid price is high end pricing a dealer will pay (but then they also say its wholesale). CDN charges quite a bit of money for their pricing sheets and should be held to a higher standard.

Coin sales have changed dramatically with the rising popularity of auction sites where collectors and dealers can sell and buy on the same platforms most notably like ebay. I think maybe the CDN was a safe guide for dealers to use but has maybe perhaps become outdated. I simply want to know others opinions on the greysheet and if they've ever ran into a problem where it was over-pricing a coin and you went maybe 20% back of bid to be safe and then found out you broke even at best.

 

Can you tell me why you think so? Like have you had any personal experience with it? I just don't hear much talk about it and it's really bugging me and I'm thinking of not buying it anymore but... so many dealers still ask about it, yet - I'm just finding it to be less and less useful and more and more frustrating. It could be just the "old school" older dealers that still think its a good guide that do not use the internet much and unfortunately, may be selling to each other at off-prices like in a "market bubble" lol... but i dont know I'm just making a crazy suggestion with that

 

The dealer I work with the most lives by it, and he is constantly overpaying for coins. He will ask me to sell coins for him, and when I compare prices from online auctions, I tell him you bought it for 200, and there are 3 for sale on Ebay for 190.00 at the moment.

 

No, the "greysheet" is for properly graded coins, slabbed or raw. Similarly, do not confuse the bluesheet as being the guide for any certified example as the prices within can basically be viewed as being for bottom of the barrel hot potato type material.

 

But it is an average. If you do not believe it that is your right, but I am just telling you the truth. The CDN gets all kinds of prices reported to it, and it reports the average. Just because the average is $2500 does not mean an above averase specimen is not worth more than that, and vice versa. You act like they are stocks, they are not. They are all unique.

Regarding grading, put 10 experienced collectors and dealers here and I will bet 10 of 10 of us will agree on g, vg, f, etc. Most circulated coin grades are easy for experienced collectors. We do not need a slab to grade for us. Now, authenticity, yes a slab can be valuable to verify authenticity.

 

No, it is not a "waste of money" nor is it "worthless". What it is, however, is a tool and as with any tool, it is only as helpful as the person using it. Depending on how one wishes to look at it, the example in post #6 of the gentleman blindly using it is also a fine example of an opportunity afforded. Similarly, those who price according to or based upon CDN can be ripe for the picking depending on series, and in particular, the individual coin. The point is that the CDN can often be used to one's advantage, but first and foremost, knowing one's market along with the coins themselves is of absolute importance.

"Wholesale" is not a static number, sir, and just as one coin of the same type, date, and grade can be vastly different from another, so too can their prices, "wholesale" or retail. As mentioned above, the CDN is just a tool only as good as the person using it; while listed values are often reasonable for generic commonly traded material, the same cannot always be said for high end/quality or seldomly traded coins.

To put it simply, the CDN is not a guide to profitably buying and selling coins.

 

Try using coinfacts, eBay completed sales and heritage auction records. There is no substitute for a detailed record of actual sales. Ps don't use the coinfacts pcgs price use the auction results. The other great thing about these three sources is they have links to pics so you can judge the quality of the coin yourself.

 

But I thought they also rationalized data, meaning they threw out items they didn't consider indicative. You could be right about it simply being what you describe, but the point still would be no single data point will ever tell someone if their coin is a good or bad buy at that price, simply because every coin is unique. Every MS64 1884 O silver dollar is in some ways unique. So you can get into the ballpark, but a knowledgable collector will always pay more for a superior MS64 than an average or below average one. Good gosh, probably 30% or more MS64's out there I would never, ever agree are good enough to be graded that high, while others are fairly graded and rarely you get one that really should be a 65. None of this information can really ever be communicated in one price for MS64, right?

So, buy and sell strictly on what the slab says and a CDN? Foolhardy at best. Buy and sell based on what the current CDN says and deep knowledge of the coin series? Not a bad plan. Again, its not the CDN that is the difference, its knowledge of coins and specifically deep knowledge of that particular coin series that is what is needed. Too many people want to be wheelers and dealers, not having to learn about coins and just work with numbers. With coins, its never that simple IMHO.

 

If you use the greysheet to price coins, often you will buy to high, and sell to low, depending on the series.

 

I agree whole heartedly. It's not even an average and it's also not "the highest price a dealer is willing to pay" for bid. I used the greysheet to price out a seated liberty quarter once (when I still believed it to be a reasonable guide like 3 years back) and I sold it for about 60% of it's value. I was really mad about it but more mad at myself for actually trusting it. What I use now mostly to price coins is prices realized from real auction sites and MOST IMPORTANTLY taking ALL the fees and buyer's premiums into account for the price as well. Auction sites like heritage add the buyer's premium to the SOLD number making it look much higher than it actual is. They charge buyers like a minimum of 15% and up to 20% on all their sale prices.

 

Yes - Medorman there is a discrepancy within a grade a low MS64, mid-range and high end 64. That's why, to try to fill in the gaps a bit, the plus designation came out and also CAC. But there is also just eye appeal, toning etc. All of that aside I am talking about just a standard coin the greysheet is NOT useful. Like there are so many coins that the prices listed are not accurate for ANY coin within that grade - certified or not.

If anyone has a recent greysheet - just check out their pricing on double eagles - they are so far off the mark - they do not represent any basis in reality other than JUST barely loosely related enough that they can get away with still printing it?

 

Is it also true that they are using +/CAC in the SAME category as those without in the greysheet? That would actually make the values they give make a lot more sense and also explain why they're so useless. They said they do not but..... its the only thing that explains why for example the prices on the higher end double eagles are so off both common date section of what MS63, 64 and 65s are goins for and key date higher graders (way too high)

 

I liken it to Democracy, the absolutely worst form of government except for every other form ever tried.

Don't like the CDN? Ok, fine. Find or build a better one. IMHO, its about as "real" as it can get, taking into account what Doug said about no two coins being alike. If coins were like shares of IBM, yes, of course, we could have real time markets with exact prices. IMagine how bad the stock market would be if every share of IBM was unique, and slightly different than other shares in percentage of ownership, dividend yields, etc.

 

I only buy slabbed shares of IBM. And they have to have beans too.

If two people (a buyer and seller) truly know their market, then an equitable price is probably going to occur. If the seller doesn't know the market as well as the buyer, then either the seller asks too much and the buyer walks, or the seller doesn't ask enough and the buyer gets to brag about the great deal he got.

If the buyer doesn't know the market as well as the seller, then the buyer may end up paying too much.

In my opinion, any pricing guide is just that... a guide.