Regarding Classic head gold scarcity

Discussion in 'Coin Chat' started by GoldCoinLover, Aug 17, 2009.

  1. GoldCoinLover

    GoldCoinLover Senior Member

    So I've decided to specialize in classic head $2.50 gold. I can't really afford any more specimens, but I go to heritage often and look at as many specimens as I can to get good at grading them. I already feel I've gotten better.

    There seems to be very little if none research done on the series. I hope to eventually buy mcclosey's (sp?) book on it when it comes available.

    I think I posted this earlier, but something I just can't figure out. Why is classic head gold so expensive? I understand how rare pre 1834 gold, because most of it was melted and of its higher gold content was hoarded....I mean classic head gold I think is overrated, I don't think many collect or specialize in it. So it doesn't seem demand would be raising the prices? Is the classic head gold really all that scarce? I searched ebay and found 2 pages of results from classic head gold. I just don't see where the relatively high prices come from. For example a VF-XF classic $2.50 may go for 500 bucks, where a regular 2.50 liberty may go for melt!

    If demand isn't contributing to the cause, what is it? Perhaps because the series were so short?
     
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  3. TheNoost

    TheNoost huldufolk

    Most collectors don't do a date and MM gold set, so having such a short series probably has alot to do with it.
     
  4. Mark Feld

    Mark Feld Rare coin dealer

    Kevin, have you checked the total populations for the Classic $2.50 pieces as a group compared to the Liberty $2.50 pieces? I'm guessing that the former is MUCH smaller than the latter.
     
  5. Leadfoot

    Leadfoot there is no spoon

    My sense is much of the Classic Head QE price (i.e. demand) is from type set people. Given the relative low remaining populations, type set demand (along with the few series specialists) yield strong prices. True of most US series with limited numbers and few by-date collectors, IMO.
     
  6. GoldCoinLover

    GoldCoinLover Senior Member

    I didn't bother to check that. I know where to find the pop's for each date, like on coinfacts but how would I find the pop for all put together for the whole series? Just add them up?

    I think the liberty design was also the longest running design in gold coin history..I bet you're right. Thanks mark.

    Oh, one last thing. Would you consider classic head gold scarce, compared to liberty's?

    Ok, I added up all the classic head $2.50's. There's some rare dates such as dohnelga and carson city. I would love to one one of the southern branch mint coins of any denomination someday..but they cost so much. Lot of history behind it, and the fact they only minted gold and was closed at the civil war.

    Here's the total mintage for all quarter classic head eagles:
    968, 228

    I did a quick glance at the liberty quarter eagles and just ONE date of them has over a million minted, the mintage is huge. This must be why they cost so much, they are not rare per se, not common, but somewhat scarce.
     
  7. Mark Feld

    Mark Feld Rare coin dealer

    If you have access to the NGC and/or PCGS census/population reports, you can quickly see how many examples have been certified for each date and grade level.
     
  8. 900fine

    900fine doggone it people like me

    Forget the mintage; it's only the survivors which count. As Mark mentioned, hit the NGC / PCGS pop reports to get an indication.

    PCGS says total certified in all grades - 2,417 (business strikes only... there were also 11 proofs). That's a survival rate of about 0.25% - extremely low. Even Chain cents are higher than that.

    PCGS reports business strike Liberty $2.5 total in all grades - 54,067. That's more than twenty times the Classic $2.5.
     
  9. GoldCoinLover

    GoldCoinLover Senior Member

    How come the survival rate is so low? The gold fineness in them was reduced to below .9 because the earlier gold coins people were melting...these were the first gold coins to circulate widely.
     
  10. Mark Feld

    Mark Feld Rare coin dealer

    Sounds like a good question for you to research:rolleyes:
     
  11. GoldCoinLover

    GoldCoinLover Senior Member

    I apologize mark, perhaps I should do more research myself. I have to be honest though, your comment took me by surprise.
     
  12. Mark Feld

    Mark Feld Rare coin dealer

    Kevin, there is certainly no need to apologize. And I'm not sure why my remark/suggestion surprised you. You have expressed an interest in this area, so it seems only natural that you would want to research the survival rate question you raised.
     
  13. GoldCoinLover

    GoldCoinLover Senior Member

    Well I saw your smiley and thought you were being sarcastic, which is odd to me because you are very patient and understanding. I Guess I took it too hard.

    I've already done quite a bit of research on the classic head quarter eagles, reading everything I can about the series. I never found anything regarding survival rates. I remember reading that the pre 1834 gold, most of it was melted because its gold content was more than it's face value. If you could give me a hint in the right direction, as I'm not really sure where to look.
     
  14. 900fine

    900fine doggone it people like me

    Some early gold was more than .900 fine. The Classic heads were .900 fine.

    Well, I don't know, but I'll throw out a couple of SWAGs (scientific wild-@$$ guesses).

    There are probably multiple factors, not just one. The dominant factor surely is meltdown - several, not just one.

    One is trans-Atlantic commerce. As gold crossed both ways for commerce, it was commonly melted by the recipients and re-minted as local coin.

    Another factor : domestic melting over the years to re-coin 'em as better, fresher coinage. Ultimately, whatever survived was hit hard in the great 1933 melt.
     
  15. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    Get the book Encyclopedia of US Gold Coins 1795-1933 by Garrett & Guth, it talks about how many survive fo rquite a few examples. But another way is to check the population reports, check ads frequently and check auction records. By doing that it soon becomes clear what coins are seldom sold. And coins that are seldom sold usually have the lower survival rates.

    Of course the easiest way is to just check the Grey Sheets. The highest priced coins are typically going to be the ones with the lowest survival rates. There will be exceptions, and often the surviving numbers will be skewed by the mintage if a coin had a low mintage to begin with. But it will most definitely show you that there are fewer of say coin A existing today than there is of coin B.
     
  16. Conder101

    Conder101 Numismatist

    Fractional Currency by Neil Carothers, the laws regarding redemption and recoinage of worn coins, and pay close attention to the comments 900fine made. I've made comment to you myself about the exportation factor and recoinage in other countries.

    As he said you also have to understand the recoinage done here. Like you said these were the first ones that really circulated and they circulated for a long time compared to the bulk of the Liberty heads. Circulation means wear and wer means weight loss. The legal tolerances were tight and underweight coins were redeemed and recoined. (Coins under the legal weight did not have to be accepted at face value and buyers could be forced to accept a lower value based on the actual weight. Sellers on the other hand wanted full weight coins and the government would accept them at full value for redemption, absorbing the cost themselves. So there was incentive on both the buyers and the seller to redeem underweight coins.)

    And of course gold coins were always a ready source of raw material for artisans in the jewelry trade. Need some gold for what you are creating, get some at the bank, melt it and add copper to get to the fineness you desire.
     
  17. Leadfoot

    Leadfoot there is no spoon

    A good area of study for Mr. Gold Coin Lover would be Gresham's Law. It is particularly apropos to this discussion...Mike
     
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