Raw vs TPGs

This open to anyone who can add some thoughts or knowledge as always.
With the real state of the economy really in a depressed state, where will the line be drawn ? When will people agree that most proof coins will go at least MS or PF 68.
With gold selling for 20 to 30% more then spot it signifies that the dollar in not trusted.
Even with oil continueing to drop. OPEC countries are in a lot of trouble as if we started pumping the oil we buy from them ourselves.
If we get smart a go at an energy policy now and put many Americans to work in these times we could solve several world issues at once. One trick pony countries would be forced to become of another ilk. Making exports, and training their citizens to do productive profitable work.
No time for NUCLEAR except for power.
I see little future in TPGs other then to qualify a coin as authentic for older units. The prices are out of line and very possibly you never get back the coin you sent in.
If I were a dealer, a hint of a percentage of high grade coins is not unthinkable. As a vast amount of units cross a TPGs tables they have the whole cookie jar. They can take care of the big shooters and throw the rest a periodic bone.
Looking at their operation would tell nothing. It could be done the minute you left.
Like diamonds I do not trust single source or even dual source suppliers to tell ALL the truth. It is not profitable to do so.
Are 70 grade coins worth twice as much as a 69 ?
They set the prices,according to a number which they call demand.
As with stocks some appear to be market makers for certain coins.
We all want our coins to increase in value, but not in a way that will create a bust, that is way more then the boom.

 

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No 70 grade coins are not worth double of what 69 coins are.
And I do like slabs.
Just buy the coin not the slab.

 

You can always vote with your wallet. If you think a coin is overpriced just don't buy it.

First, Proof coins do not grade MS. (MS grades are reserved for Business Strikes.)

Second, not all Proof coins grade PF-68. I have a few 19th Century Proof coins that grade PF-61, PF-62 and PF-63.

 

Grade

I do not qualify the years ! My bad. It would be since the reintrducion after WW11.

Thanks

 

70 craze

Why does a falling economy not only effect how the volume of the mint will be changed, but how much people are even willing to purchase any coin what so ever.
If gold is held as an imperative item, why would any one pay more based on a false premise .
Bullion sales are off the chart. South Africa is short on Kruggerands.This could also be timed with the U.S. Mint dropping 60% of their offerings to make strictly 1 oz bullion.
How many of the TPGs are selling more slab service ?

Thanks

 

NGC Up?

You indicate that NGC is up to 200 K a month. Year over year would be a figure more uderstandable. Also the unit count by TPG year over year. Is the pie getting larger or are some receiving a reward for alternate alocation spending ? That is getting the others guys piece of the pie.
I would believe with the credit crunch, people will buy as much gold or silver in as cheap a form as they can.
As I know little by comaprison to anyone on this site the only way I can find out is to get some shared knowledge.
For the time I have lurked, it has been a new center of learning.

 

that would be a shame NGC is useless for indian coins. Also all the good deals can be had in PCGS coins they are so inconsistent. they bring a romance to the hobby. As soon as RG departs PCGS crumbles

 

I think you can find such price differentials. Just look at the 1926-S Lincoln Cent discussed in another thread here. PCGS shows these prices in three consecutive MS grades:

MS-63 $ 2,500
MS-64 $ 15,000
MS-65 $ 150,000 (this should change to 106,000)​

If you can have a 6x jump from MS-63 to MS-64, and a 10x jump from MS-64 to MS-65, there's no reason to disbelieve a 100% price jump from MS69 to MS-70 for some other coin.

 

but david, I think that this is where your logic fails you:

You're quoting prices for a 26-S Lincoln in MS-65 Red. It's kind of the Rolls Royce of Lincoln Cents. There is none more desired. There are exactly 1 known in MS-65 Red and that accounts for the 10X jump from 64 to 65.

Other coins??? Well, let's keep the car analogy: If you have a 1989 Yugo in nearly perfect condition (MS-69), what kind of price increase will you see for a perfect one (MS-70)? Virtually none, because the Yugo is not as desirable and in reasonable supply in that condition.

The coins that grade MS-69 or 70 are almost to a coin all modern and far too common to ever warrant a HUGE price. They just aren't rare. So, the question becomes how much of a difference will grading make? Not nearly as much. In the case of the 26-S, we have something that is nearly unique in this state of preservation. The rarity combined with the condition are what make for the large jump in price.

 

I wasn't trying to imply that these kinds of price differentials are a constant, across the board for all coins. I was trying to point out that what FreakyGarretC said, "No 70 grade coins are not worth double of what 69 coins are." is not necessarily correct. There are numerous instances of insane price jumps across a single number grade increase.

 

I take exception to the OP about the " you might not get the same coin you sent in" part.......This is not true.


Why we see the 70's and the super high grade MS coins, 67,68 etc going crazy is the registry fever. In Dallas, 2008 Lincolns sold for over 3K , beyond logic I call it. Registry fever.

Remember folks, there are big money types who dont live like us. They have money period, no 1 or 2 million dip in their portfolios will even be noticed. They dont live in our world.

They want the best at any cost ( silly money ) and have and are willing to pay whatever it takes to jump that fractional percentile of a point in the registry.

C'mon, $3200 for a 2008 Lincoln?

Thats silly money

 

There is a relation I think between our current economic condition and high grade coins. The super high grade or MS-70 coins to me illustrates our society's (none of us on Coin Talk included) "got to have the best". If its bigger its better, if its more expensive its better, if its higher grade its better or the only one acceptable, if its better than the neighbors rah! This mentality played a large part IMO of getting us in the shape we are in by people buying on credit what they could not afford. The super rich will always be super rich for the most part. I do think a lot of people have purchased coins they really could not afford. Did any of you read the article recently on one of the coin news websites that the market is now being flooded with MS-69 coins because dealers were buying so many new issues hoping for MS-70s to sell at tremendous profits? The MS-69's are being sold with little or no profit. Another article was illustrating how some higher grade prices on older coins are starting to fall. I'm beginning to think just recently that in a few more months "cash will be king" in the coin market.

 

I can say with confidence that at both PCGS and NGC that the little guy has the same chance as the big guy of getting the upgrade. The submissions are 100% anonymous to the graders, with the exception perhaps of widely publicized collections, that they may know about simply from reading coin world.

Are 70's worth my than twice that of a 69? All I can say to that is a coin is worth what someone is willing to pay for it. Should they be worth twice as much? In my opinion, absolutely not.

I know firsthand that PCGS and NGC are extremely honest and trustworthy in the way they grade coins. Also, would a grader risk their reputation, and their ability to earn a very high salary by switching a coin?

 

What ?

I suppose it's possible you might not get back the same coin you sent in...

... but it's also possible I will get run over by a stampeding herd of turtles. No worries here.

Have you actually ever heard of someone getting back a different coin ?

If so, how often does that happen ? Compared to the 200,000 a month they handle, that is.

 

You might not see any future for TPGs, but almost everybody else does.

Think about the folks who surged NGC's volume from 150,000/mo to 200,000/mo - an increase of 33%. I bet the submitters of those 200,000 coins see a future.

 

Personally, I agree.

But we see price doubling with 1 point difference all the time, in many different issues.

 

What ?

I'm missing something here...