Proof and Mint Sets

Hello everyone!

With the advent of coin grading companies, does it seem that more and more people are opening up proof and mint sets with the hopes of finding MS 67-70 coins and selling them individually? I know I'm new to the market, but it sure does seem that way. It also seems that the individually graded coin can sometimes be worth more than the entire set. What are your thoughts on this matter and what the future holds for mint and proof sets? Also, as a collector, do you collect the original sets or the individually graded coins?

Thanks
Eric

 

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The ONLY way to get a MS-PR-67 or higher coin is out of a Mint or Proof set.
Now I fully understand that many do not believe this, but I can only offer my experience. With many collectors competing in the registry sets, this trend of the ultra grades will continue. That particular segment of the market is incredible. New prices are realized at every major auction.
I also cater to many of these collectors. The game works like this:
A dealer will buy several hundred or thousand sets and cherry pick ten to twelve coins to submit for grading. Sometimes we miss the grade and end up slabbing a $5 coin. When you do hit it right, the coin now sells for many hundreds or thousands of dollars.
When trying to hit the ultra grades, luck is often the most important factor. The very slight difference between 68 and 69 is not known but by a few people.
I have covered up grades and asked grading companies to offer an opinion and most of the time they miss the correct grade also. This grading of coins is far from an exact science. It is more of a game. An expensive game.

 

Is it fair to say that most proof and mint sets sold through dealers/shows/internet have been "cherry picked" and the only true way to find "unsearched" sets is to purchase them from the US Mint when they are released?

 

I don't believe so. Most dealers do not take the time to look through their inventory. Most would not know how to properly cherry pick to begin with

I would suggest that you buy through a dealer who does have some idea though. The Mint does not care if the coins have spots or scratches. While you can return the problem sets, it is often a pain in the butt.
Go to a shop or show, and cherry pick the set yourself. To me, it is worth the extra couple of dollars to pick a nice set over taking what I am given.

 

Thanks ND. That's comforting to know. I was a little hesitant to purchase these sets from dealers/shows/internet for the fear they were already "searched". My main goal is not to cherry pick every set I buy, but I also don't want someone's "garbage", if you know what I mean.

 

Learn to cherry pick. Take a look at some of the coins that GDJMSP has been posting. While the area of numismatics may be different, the idea is the same. He will not buy off the shelf. ALL COLLECTORS should follow his example.

 

It requires some learning for most people to see the difference between two level of proof grades. If you give a novice ten different proofs representing a cross section of proof quality and ask him to arrange them from best to worst he'll have a lot of trouble. He won't do it the same way twice. Even after he learns to start spotting the differences there will be some variation over time as his tastes evolve. It took me years to see these differences. While I personally am not extremely interested in these differences there are some people who are and they do sometimes pay very high prices for them. While most of the proofs have vary narrow range in quality there are some dates where this range is much wider ('68-S half for instance), and much less learning is required to spot it. It is true that at the highest end of the range that even professionals can have difficulty telling them apart without a benchmark.

The range in mint set quality is always much much wider. Frequently the bulk of the mint set coins will be at the lower end of the range, and sometimes they'll be nearer the middle of the range. In no case are they close to the top of the range. The '72-D quarter is one of the best and it averages a nice MS-64.

Many factors have to come together for the mint to make a gem. Every step from die and planchet preparation to press maintenance and cleaning has to work as it was designed. This is actually an anomaly! One of the biggest things keeping coins from being gems is die condition. After about 40,000 strikes there is always enough wear on the die to assure it will strike no more gems but it will produce up to another half million coins or so. So only fewer than 10% of regular issue coins can even be in contention. Then there is die alignment which will exclude up to 60%, strike pressure- 50%, and marking from handling 75%. There are many other things that can go wrong but you can see how improbable gems are. They do show up in rolls and bags but in almost every case better examples can be found in the mint sets.

Mint set coins are struck by new dies. Quarter dies are swapped out after only about 30,000 strikes. They are struck on the old single presses so die alignment is less of an issue. There are still many things that go wrong with the process so the gems still tend to be flukes, but compared to finding nice looking coins in rolls, finding them in mint sets is like shooting fish in a barrel.

Those of us who love the moderns know that mint sets are not the final answer in assembling collections. Many coins were not issued in the mint sets so you have no choice but to look for rolls. Varieties rarely show up in mint sets and here they do appear in the sets tend to be common because mint sets have had only about an 80% attrition where the attrition for uncs on regular issues can be higher than 99.9%. There are also some coins which are excessively rare in mint sets as gems.

One of the most interesting things about these coins is that so many of them are so difficult to chase down. Even coins that are common in circulation can be very difficult in unc. There are still some 150 million of the '84-D type "d" reverse quarter in circulation but finding an unc will require months of intensive searching. Even nice XF's of this are getting few and far between.

One of the reasons that the atttrition is so high on proof and mint sets is that in most dates are worth more as individual coins than as a set. There doesn't need to be a gem in a set for it to be profitable to destroy it!

 

Much depends on the date and the source. If you're looking for an '85-D dime then there is little chance that most sets have been searched for this coin. But if you're talking about a frosted '66 half dollar or a '76 Ike then the chances of them being picked over is much higher. The biggest retailers do pick over their sets. The best source for original coins, surprisingly, are on the wholesale market. These sets often come straight from estates and are just shipped off by dealers after they've accumulated too many. In the past the mint sets were rarely sold over the counter in shops at all. If the dealer had too many he'd cut them up and put them in the register and ship the more expensive ones to the wholesalers. This is still the case except only the '80 set isn't worth the postage to ship and there are now a few of these selling over the counter.

Look for fresh envelopes and the original shipping boxes. Most of these were originally purchased in lots of "5" so look at those that come in 5's. A faint indent in the envelope in the shape of the coins is often a good sign. Keep your eyes open since there are many original sets around. When these sets get into big bunches is when they get picked over and usually all these sets will be destroyed so cherry picking is not nearly so big an issue as you might think.

 

Great post cladking. You have such a fresh outlook for a collector. Truly a man that has learned the ins and outs.

 

Thank you very much. I've been collecting them for more than 30 years and they just fascinate me.

 

That's why, when cladking talks about moderns, I tend to take him seriously.

 

Breaking up proof sets to find MS69-70 coins could pay off, but sometimes it's not worth it.
I'm trying to build a set of 50 state quarters with the P&D, clad proof and the silver proof coin from each state. For the year 1999 it seems like a waste of money to pay around $270 for a silver proof set and break it up. Even the MS70 silver proof state quarters don't seem to be worth more than $20 each (a knowledgable coin-collecting colleague showed me an online list that I don't have access to). If the whole set was MS70 coins it would be worth less than $200 total (and what are the chances of a complete set of MS70s...)
No, I think I'll go for loose coins instead of breaking up the silver proof set from that year.

 

Well as one who deals with many of the finest coins, I can tell you with no doubt that a true MS-70 coin in either a PCGS or NGC holder will bring much more than $20.
2004 Proof 70 in PGCS holders were selling for near $400 this weekend in Baltimore.
Now in low tier holders they are $3 coins.
A complete mint set in MS-70? A few thousand without batting an eye.

 

Thank you for your valuable information, ND. I guess my previous information was wrong.
I found a state quarter price list at: http://www.ecoinprices.com/state-quarters.htm
I guess that would be a fairly good guide to the potential value of a proof set, but of course prices will vary.

BTW, I visited your web shop, but it was closed. When will it open again?

 

GDJMSP

WHAT????????

Hopefuly you got some photos or the older sets.....I still can't believe you'd sell them after getting the entire set


Speedy

 

Sometimes people enjoy the quest or journey that it takes to aquire these sets, rather than the sets themselves.

 

And what a collection it is becoming. I have been priviledged enough too see pics of many of these beautiful coins. As many of you know, I believe that GD has one of the finest eyes for coins that I have known. His patience for finding the absolute best example is one that I wish more collectors would follow.

 

That was my next example I figured I had a 50/50 chance...