Overlooked Scarcity

In the opinion of the forum, what coins [if any] are relatively scarce based on mintage or surviving populations or grade, but are currently relatively inexpensive to acquire? These may be the coins that future collectors will seek and bid up in price. The hobby is pretty efficient, but there must be a few overlooked future bargains out there.Thanks.

 

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There are a few out there I think are great...I just don't tell!!!!

Ok..I'll tell one--Proof IHC and Proof Franklin Halves

Speedy

 

Actually the hobby is extraordinarily inefficient. This is largely caused by the nature of man which is to herd and form societies, toe the line, and follow the crowd. It's always easy to buy high and sell low. All of us find comfort in numbers so when people panic and run to starboard you'd better run to port no matter how difficult. You'll still go in the water but at least the boat won't come down on top of you.

Out of all the coins made in the last two and a half millinea by many hundreds of issuing authorities only a few dozen series attract a lot of attention. These are mostly US coins issued over a 140 year span. Even in this narrow realm there are several overlooked and underappreciated series.

In 1989 one could spend $1000 to purchase a gem '78-S Morgan. This is an extremely common coin which was saved in huge quantity at time of issue and was quite well made. Even though gems were plentiful collectors have always been fascinated by large silver coins and this seems to go double for this one. Everyone wanted a Morgan collection or a type coin in high grade and these were highly touted. People scrambled to buy these coins before they were all gone. Of course after the last guy got on board there was no one left to buy and the market collapsed. It was difficult to sell these to a dealer for $45 a year later. In the mid-'60's the big thing was brand new rolls of coins straight from the mint. Everyone saw that the hobby was growing and that there weren't enough of many coins in circulation to supply all the kids who wanted coins. It seemed a safe bet that as kids got older and wealthier they would want to upgrade their collections so BU rolls should maintain a steady growth in price for decades. Today most of the coins that were bid up so high were put back in circulation and those which remain are generally worth only face value. By the same token there are hundreds of world and US coins which have been doubling over and over because they are finally getting some interest after decades of total neglect. Coins like a Greek 1957 Drachmai which simply is unavailable in unc and scarce in XF. Not many years ago this was just another twenty five cent modern but now it lists for $100 and you still can't find one.

There are thousands of US and world coins like this from scarce circulating quarter varieties which don't exist in unc to things like a 1968 Japanese 100Y which lists for a couple of dollars but can not be found.

Really, if you list all the coins and throw a dart at it you'll probably hit an underappreciated coin. Some are simply more underappreciated than others.

 

IMHO I think that the Ikes and the Peace dollars are relatively cheap compared to their counterparts (Morgans) but nobody seems to like the Ikes and the Peace dollars don't have that great a following. I also think nickels are on an upswing but once we get through with this "Lewis and Clark' commemoration, they will slow down again. Again, just my 2 cents worth.

 

GDJMSP has a great point--
I also think that Large Cents from 1835-1957 in lower grades seem under valued...
Some half dimes are also under valued in my thoughts...

As for what fiture collectors will like...if I knew that I would be buying all I could---I don't think it will be "newer" coins such as State Quarters and the new nickels...they should be able to get them nice and easy in high grades.

Speedy

 

Thanks for some good ideas and food for thought. I like the proof IHC and proof Franklin ideas. I'm too new at this to have looked at the large cents, but I will.

Are Eisenhower dollars old enough to make them worth collecting (although they won't get any younger)?

Are Roosevelt dimes scarce enough, even in high grade? It seems like there are billions of them.

 

A coin doesn't have to be old to be collectible. Or at least "old" is a matter of perspective. In the mid-'60's the hobby went crazy for brand new coin under the belief that the burgeoning number of collectors would need these someday. Prices of brand new rolls went up sharply and rolls from only a few years previous were considered "old". To put it another way; collectors considered five year old coins from the '50's to be old but now two generations later a 1965 roll is thought of as new.

All regular issue Roosy dimes were made in the tens of millions. All the old silver ones were saved in the millions. All regular issue Roosys can be found in choice condition without a lot of effort. Many dates are tough in gem and this is especially true among the clads. Most all dates are at least a little tougher in choice gem and many are quite rare in superb gem. There are lots of great varieties and these can be tough in any condition. There are also some special issues which are exciting and one is extremely pricey.

 

Perhaps that last post should be edited where I said that all regular issue Roosys can be found in choice unc without a lot of effort. This statement is true but only because as GDJMSP says there are fewer people collecting these than any other US coin. If there were real demand for Roosy the the '82-P, and '83-P would be quite tough in choice unc condition. The '71 would also be somewhat difficult.

 

Get your Red Book and an index card. Read down every page looking at Mintages and the price in Good. You will find many inequalities. My favorite is Bust Dimes 1836 versus 1837. The latter year has one-fourth the mintage of the former, but the same prices all across the board... and it has always been like that. No one seems to care.

That is the point. Cladking said that numismatic markets are "inefficient." I understand the word, but I think that like "trade deficit" it is a fallacy. It is impossible for an open (free, unregulated) market to be inefficient. So, if there are any relatively scarce coins that are relatively inexpensive, they are that way for a reason, so their prices are unlikely to change.

 

You're right. I should have used a different word.

Collectibles are priced based on current supply and demand. Wide price swings have happened many times because of changes in either of these.

 

Actually, it is not. I know what you mean, and I know that everyone from Alan Greenspan down to the nearest bank teller would agree with you, but I think that they are all wrong. A free market cannot be inefficient, by definition. It is like saying that capital is "idle" when it is not "invested." These are socialist political ideas that still linger in economics.

I agree with your sentiment. With the Tulip Craze being part of our common knowledge base and with "contrarian investing" having been touted for 20 years and everyone knowing about Kondratieff Waves now, it is really important to rely on your own judgement. Of course, that means that you will be alone on the other side of the boat, when the profiteers are on the crowded side selling life preservers. The market is always right.

Again, I agree. My personal favorites are the coins of Tibet and the coins of the Hungarian Malcontents. In point of fact, there is hardly an area of numismatics now which is in the doldrums. Collecting is picking up worldwide because of the general prosperity level and the general level of information transfer.

When Frank Robinson ( author of Confessions of a Numismatic Fanatic) was a lad, who cared to collect Chinese Cash besides Frank Robinson? It is not just that the coins were hard to find -- they were not. It was that information about them was hard to find. You had to know about specialty books. Now, anyone can put CHINESE COIN BOOK in Google, Amazon, and the ANS library and find Kann, Fisher's Ding, David Jen, Schjoth, and all the others. The meta-information (information about information) makes this a level playing field.

I also agree that if there is an "insider's strategy" it is in not following the herd. Collecting U.S. 3-cent silvers may not make you rich. but if you have the field pretty much to yourself, you are not bidding against a lot of empassioned competitors.

The one secret insider's strategy that always works is to write the book.
Main Author: Gifford, Allan.
Title: The ultimate guide to U.S. three cent nickels, 1865-1889
Publication Info: St. Louis, MO : A. Gifford, 2003.

 

I agree with the statement that the Market is Always Right, but disagree with numismatic market is always efficient ( I do not believe a true open system exists). An item is only worth what somebody is willing to pay for it, of course what somebody is willing to pay is determined by every person and people can always change their mind. In an efficient system a price would be pre-determined, and a coin would not sell for a penny more or a penny less. Any new information would be released to everybody at the same time and everybody would react the same way, and prices would be adjusted accordingly( which we know does not happen).

 

Tibet

"My personal favorites are the coins of Tibet ..." to quote mmarotta (how does quoting work here?)

Hi,

finally someone loving the same coins ...
I think Tibetan coins have potential. China is getting richer, an enormous middle class is appearing that starts collecting stamps and coins. And they love Tibet since it is as mysterious for them than to us. Tibetan coins are still quite cheap but will slowly be absorbed into the Chinese market.

I once bought some Tibetan coin because of historical interest in Tibet (I studied Tibetology!) but then got stuck with it. All the varieties, errors, overprints, Nepali coins used in Tibet, bilingual Tibetan Chinese coins, coins that prove Chinese governance over Tibet and coins that definitely show that Tibet was independant.

EDITED--No offers to buy/sell/trade please And are there some more people out there collecting Tibet?
EDITED--It might not be a good idea to post your email where everyone can see it

 

IMO, if enough people believed markets were efficient then those markets will become inefficient and vice versa.

"Strength becomes weakness,
weakness becomes strength."
Sun Tzu

Being a contraian is better than getting in line to be prepped for shearing. But it doesn't mean you'll make any money at it . "Sleepers" can become comatose for decades or even a lifetime. :headbang:

 

This is just too cynical. the fact is that while there are many coins which are rare or will be rare, etc, they don't attract attention, not because of the hurding nature of people but more because of athestic values.

The truth is that Morgns are a sure long term bet, regardless of mintages. Why? Because they are beautiful coins and growing rapidly older. there will ***ALWAYS*** be high demand for beuatiful Morgan dollars relative to say Jefferson Nickles?!

As a comparision, there are milllions of unique paintings in the art world. Each are unique and yet only a few become truly valuable. Why? DEMAND!

Its all about demand. And strangly enough, often the more popular an issue, the rarer it becomes over time in high grade. Why? Because popular items get handled to death!

If you wanted my bet on the long term under valued coin, look at Buffalo Nickles. These highly attractive coins, iconic in the mind of the public, symbolic for Amican conage altogether, and very under priced as a whole.

Ruben

 

the quality of the Peace Dollars in general, from what I've observed, is crap.

As for IKE's, I think this is a guady and ugly coin, especially the front. But the back of the coin holds very siginicant cutlrual and historical significance. I say the jury is still out, and we'll see how they do in the next 20 years. That being said, picking them up is cheap and worht a bet.

Ruben

 

Capped Bust Halves.

Bone

 

As noted the new Red Book is loaded with errors. This actually may make it one of the more expensive editions. See pages 392 for present Red Book values although it's tough to find someone to buy them for those prices.
As to coins that are becoming the thing to collect, I believe that error coins are the thing of the future. As an example I've been trying to buy a Lincoln Cent, 1955DD for many years and have seen it go up by one to two hundred dollars a month lately. I've noticed many dealers now selling error coins in 2x2's and even slabes lately at coin shows and dealerships. Errors of all kinds are becoming a big thing especially when books are now being produced to discribe them. An example of that is coppercoins book called "Looking Through Lincolns" where every type of error imaginable is shown with photographs and discriptions as to how it was done. Error coins are becoming more commonly listed in the Red Book and other coin pricing guides. As each type is written up the price goes sky high. Note the errors being found on the new buffalo nickel and remember the Wisconsin Quarter extra leaf affair.
Error coins are the latest coin values of the future.