Outlook for world coin collecting

I assembled a 250 coin world Silver crown collection few years ago , mostly comprising of coin bought on eBay and local coin shows. My goal was to collect at least one crown from each country. Typically the coins were in the range of VF and some XF/AU. Then I got more interested in German state coins and much rare coins. Also realizing the threat of counterfeit, I switched to collecting graded crowns and buying exclusively from wel known auction houses. However my disposable income became leasser and lesser due to family commitments. So I had to reluctantly start selling my raw coin collection to fund for the new graded coins.

I have now sold close to 200 coins on eBay and at coin shows , at a loss overall on money I have spent. I see world Silver coins have become less expensive over the years. This is prominent in raw coins and up to some extent on graded somewhat rare crowns from German states. However it seems the graded rare(r) crowns at auctions are getting more expensive and consistent bidding.

This makes me wonder what is the demand going to be for world crowns and world coins in general. I do not plan to collect coins for profit but still would like to maintain some financial value over time. I would like to know what you all think , given members from various different countries.

Few things to consider I think , are younger generation interested in collecting, are counterfeit having adverse effects on collectors and people no longer using coins in everyday life.

 

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As for your question on Crown Coins, I cannot speculate since I do not have any. I do feel your question is tied to the scenario below on US type coins.


You are correct that it seems that the price received when selling off a collection is usually less than list price or even the amount originally paid.
I see many older collections that began in the late 50's early 60's when silver coins still freely circulated coming on the market, in most cases because of a collector dying or needing to liquidate the collection due to monetary needs later in life. Because of the volume of available inventory and the ability to sell anywhere in the world with a post on line; supply and demand dictates lower retail prices. But the biggest reason in my experience is thousands of dollars in silver and gold was retired from circulation 50 plus years ago at face value by many individuals.
So, a dime of face retired in 1960, most people would be happy and thrilled to get $1.00 or up to $1.25 each. Especially when $5.00 face would return $50.00 to $75.00 a roll. Being children of depression era parents, these individuals hoard coins, not collect.

 

Overall I still see strength in world and ancient coins. US coins have been overvalued for decades. For ancients, (not world but similar in many ways), it is nothing but strength. What people used to buy for years and years is now triple. A Cleopatra 40 nummi bronze in F used to be $100, now its $500.

However, all revolves around scarcity, either in the coin or the grade of the coin. Late roman bronzes in crummy condition still are not worth anything. They are the same price they were 50 years ago. So common, lower grade examples have not seen strength, but rare condition or rare coins go up, and will continue to go up.

I think you are seeing similar with world coins. Common is common, almost anyone interested in the coins own one. Its rarity, either real or condition, that will cause coins to appreciate and they have.

 

Thanks all, but what about the number of collectors of world coins ? Will they go down with time and cause the prices to go down ? Perhaps the market overseas is better than in US as I have only tried selling on US eBay and at local shows.

 

It is very true that US prices of world coins are usually lower than in the coins home countries. World coins in the US are a weird animal, I will give you that.

I think world coin collectors around the world will increase with higher standards of living, but it would take a long time to push US world coin prices up. Any time I find coins in the US of world coins I collect I buy, because I know the price here will be cheaper than from the source company.

 

One important factor in pricing is realizing what has gone on in the economy as a whole, 2007-early 2008 was the precipice of the market, then it took a dramatic downturn and is only near a recovery in the last year or so. I bought stuff at that time that I still couldn't unload at what I paid for it, but I buy less for investment and a lot more for collecting.

 

Ok, this is the third time I've seen you use that exact statement. My curiosity has peaked. I went a-googling but my results were nothing but generic click-bait "top x# reasons to _____" articles.
What are the five basic things you must do (doing one wrong will result in failure) in order to make money in coin collecting?
Buy low, Sell high, Know the coin, Know the market, ..don't get stuck..? -just a quick guess.

 

Thank you, I stop at #1 . So on a different note what do you think the mix of the bidders on big US auction houses like Heritage, stacks ? High % non US bidders ?

 

It's fun to speculate on what the coin market might do, but no one really knows. Regardless, I have also heard that world coins have seen a significant uptick recently, possibly helped by people abandoning overpriced US coins. Whether this will continue or not, no one really knows. People may guess, but no one knows. I buy coins mostly for pleasure, but I also keep an eye on return value. Who doesn't want their favorite coin to increase in value over time? Then you get a double dose of pleasure: you get to buy what you want and you make money. This probably doesn't happen too often, though. For dealers to make money they need to buy low and sell high. Prices at coin shows always seem to have grade-flation - in this case this means you pay more for a lower grade. The slabs then also come with a markup because how else can dealers make money? This remains the reality of the hobby and why 90% of the time your coin collection will not see significant profits. What is that old saying? Do what you love and the money will follow. Applied to coins this motto could read "buy what you love and the money won't follow." But some people get lucky. Just don't trust people who say that they know where the market will go. They don't (unless they helped fix it and then you have bigger problems ).

 

I mostly collect pre-1860 Sicilian and Italian coins and I wish the price was coming down on them. However, the opposite has been happening. In the last 6 years the prices have been going up . I buy most of my coins on American Ebay and Italian Ebay.

The one saving grace is the USA Dollar is stronger than it was years ago. Right now the exchange is $1.05 for a Euro. And that makes a big difference when you are buying coins from Italy.

 

I can confirm what @medoraman says about ancients. I've been seeing a lot of auctions where stuff is going for way above estimate lately.

I don't know a ton about world coins because I don't really collect them actively. One may follow me home from a coin show now and then, but I don't go looking for them.

What I do know is this: there is no "world coin" market per se. It all depends on the type of coins you're after. Maybe crowns are down, but French republic coins are up. Even within US coins, the market as a whole has been fairly flat for years, but commems are in the toilet even by comparison.

 

While "the market" for World Coins (this implies non-USA coins) may not have "slowed down," prices for the World Coins that I collect are not yet back to before the recession. Here in the USA, anyway. Individual national/regional markets outside of the USA? That could be a whole different story.

I sense that market prices for World Coins seem to be inherently unstable for us North America-based collectors since it appears that most types of World Coins lack a robust, inter-connected dealer network informed by relatively accurate data flows on prices for individual coins. In other words, there is no "Coin Dealer Network" (Grey Sheet) for them. I'm not referring to the high(er)-buck World Coins that acsearch.com catalogs, but to those "insignificant moderns," most of which acsearch doesn't acknowledge, yet which many here at CT collect.

In the end, perhaps there are way too many "World Coins" and this precludes any hope for accurate data.

There are times that I love the pricing confusion. I look for those dealers who have not updated the prices of their World Coin inventory since the early 2000s —if not the 1970s. I have personally benefitted from this at small local and large regional shows, especially with dealers who specialize in U.S. coins but who just happened to bring along some of their World inventory. I've once or twice picked up a 1970 100 Won (S. Korea) coin at around Mint State 64 or better and asked, "How much for this one?" and the old timer looks at it and says, "What the hell is this, some Japanese crap? Hell, I'll sell it to you for...hmmm....eight bucks..." as he gives me a sideways glance to see if I'd be a sucker for his 'outrageous' sale price. Of course I accept with alacrity, knowing full well that I can turn that coin around for a profit of at least $40 USD online. And that's on a bad day. Prior to the recession, I could have sold it for at least $90.

 

When you say you can sell it online for a higher price, i assume you meant to the buyers outside US ? If so hassle of shipping and returns is out weigh the profits.

 

@mlov43 quick question - As China enters the service economy has there been an increase in hobbies, such as coin collecting, there?

 

Not necessarily... Sometimes "locally;" ...but shipping with tracking to Asia is not prohibitive to profit. Even for a single coin.