Happy New Years!! This is the best time of year to take out the crystal ball. How about sharing your thoughts on future winners and losers in numismatics. Here are mine: Winner - Over the next 5 years I think that we will see a greater appreciation for coins with great eye appeal (attractive original patina/toning). These are unique one of a kind coins yet they are traded as commodities and priced in the same range as coins without this unique character, I predict that that will change. Loser - High mintage modern silver commems will sell for melt in the next 10 years (this may be a great way to buy junk silver). Winner -Keep your eye on those Unc $5 gold commems these will buck the trend on sliding modern commems. The unc FRD, and George Washington look great to me. Loser -cleaned and ugly coins will continue to be disdained in all but key dates. Agree? disagree? have a prediction?
My answers to; 1. For the most part I think this has always been the case from a standpoint of "eye appeal"...I see no reason for that to change. As for myself, the coins I select must have this quality to be in my collection. As for toning, that is a matter of likes or dislike..if a coin has toned and is just really beautiful..then it's "eye appeal" has increased to that breed of collector..to others, the surface has been altered and is of no interest but I have seen $$ increase in a significant manner for these specimens. #2. Commem's well ..are just that..there are set mintages on these coins wether or not they sell out is another question based on their popularity. I see all silver commem's as special coins and at minimum hold onto their issue value. There are a certain few that have very low mintages and go for big $$..then there are the higher mintage one like the USMC coin that will for the most part allways demand a premium. I know of no other coin that the mint has increased the mintage numbers to satisfy the potential "demand" (key word here) for modern commem's, do you? #3 The $5 Gold commems are in my opinion greatly undervalued. I have been adding these to my collection in PCGS grade MS and Prf 69 every chance I get. There are a few examples that are really trading for premium dollars at the moment. You can still get several at 120.00 to 130.00 price point..get em while you can!! #4. Agree...I can honestly say that I have nothing in my collection that has been cleaned. Nice thread :kewl: ..I hope to see the response's from other seasoned collector's out there. RickieB
I certainly agree that as the general knowledge of collectors increases that coins with original surfaces will become more widely sought after by collectors. And I rather doubt that opinions regarding cleaned coins will change any time soon. As for what happens with silver or gold commems, in my opinion that will be entirely dependant upon how their popularity increases or decreases in the future. There is a large segment of the collecting community that do not even consider these issues as coins and treat them with disdain. The current popularity of modern commems is largely due to new collectors who believe that they can make money on the coins by buying from the mint and selling on the secondary market. And while this may seem to have been easy to do for the last 4 years or so, few of these new collectors are taking into account the fact that we have been in a bullish coin market and just about all coins have increased in value over that same time period. It really has nothing to do with the coins themselves - it has simply been the market trend. However, market trends inevitably change. And when they do, there's a lot of people who are going to be in for a big surprise. If you want to predict what coins are going to increase in crease in value over time - go with the basics and forget all the guessing games.
