Need advice on determing appropriate currency values.

I've been collecting coins for a while, and have recently been thinking about getting into currency (figured a $1 type collection would be a fun thing to do). I've been researching and gathering as much info as I can find on $1 type notes and their values. I nailed down the list of notes that I would like to obtain, found pictures of each example for reference, and tried to develop some type of feel for note grading. I figured that I was ready to start shopping for my first $1 bill.

When it comes to coins the greysheet publications are commonly considered to be the most relevant price listing, and sale prices tend to more or less follow these listings pretty closely. Therefore, assuming the same would apply to currency, I got myself a copy of the most recent greensheet. For the past week or so I have been visiting websites, following online auctions, and visiting coinshops. What I have been finding is that the asking prices and pretty much all sale prices that I have come across are significantly underestimated by the greensheet listings.

Is there a more accurate guide to currency values? Am I misinterpreting the greensheet somehow? Has there been a recent increase in value of collectable $1 bills that the price guides have not accounted for? Or is the pricing structure of currency just less regimented that that of coins? Any advice would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks

 

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To me it's like greysheet. In where some of the category's are higher then grey and some are lower then grey.
Well currency seems to be that way also. But in most area's getting currency at green is hard to do.

 

If getting currency at greensheet value is hard to do, then that means that the greensheet values are inaccurate. I am used to seeing coins sell for, say, 10% over listed value. This is especially true for graded coins on auction websites where there are multiple people willing to pay the listed value, the one the is willing to pay a little more will get the coin. However, the sale prices that I am seeing for currency are typically up to at least 50% over greensheet. What I am wondering is, are people overpaying, or are the greensheet listings inaccurate? Is there a more accurate listing?

I am just getting started and my knowledge base is virtually non-existent. I want to have access to a reliable price listing because I would like to remove guessing from the equation as much as possible. I have found that when I am guessing at the price of something of which I have little knowledge, I tend to guess wrong.

 

In my experiences the past year or so I have noticed that currency has gone up compared to greensheet values. Not sure exactly why, but it seems to be a trend. Some people in the forums here can attest to that on auction sites such as ebay and Heritage as well. If you want my opinion, go for the best examples fo the notes you can find and don't pay over 25% of greensheet prices (and only in circumstances where you cannot be without that particular note).

 

From my observations, the currency market is in a slight upswing. I'm not sure if it's because some dealer inventories are down, or that collectors now have more expendable income. The currency market hit all time highs around 2006/2007, and after that the prices were softer. Some publications, or guides are a little behind the current trend. Thankfully, most of my acquisitions took place between late 2008 and now. I've found that as my interests change, and I search for notes to add to my collection, I tend to use the guides as "ball park" estimates, and turn to auction archives for real time price indicators. Overpaying for a note is often offset by finding another at a really good deal, and it averages itself out over the long run. Practicing patience is one of the most important factors that I have learned when searching for a decent deal.

 

Both wonderful expressions of advice from Dr Kegg & Steve! :thumb:

I'll add and posit that the supply of notes for sale in the last year or so seems a bit sparse. The good stuff, i.e. high value rarities, continue to roll out and attract attention at the big advertised auction houses' signature auctions, but lower and mid-range supply seems spread rather thin, at least for the various things that interest me for what I have been seeking-- and not even finding available to put bids in for. If it's not the quality or the grades that I'm after and can't find month after month, then the it's the total lack of certain series regardless of condition/grade, etc. It does seem there's a flood of low-low end and raw low grade stuff filling auction listings but the better stuff has been squirrel away in collections.

With limited supply out there, bids are bound to be a touch stronger than guides can keep abreast of when things come up that collectors are after. For this reason, I tend to go by auction results more than anything when ball parking values. It takes time to research but you can start to do your own tracking and have estimates readily available in mind when you do see something to bid on when it appears. I don't think any guides can tell us any better than what we know suits our budgets and meets our perception of market value for a given note we are after. I suggest studying auction results and keeping personal records for what you are trying to acquire.

 

Hey Guys,

Thanks a bunch for the input. You are all correct, the most accurate way to measure the value of something is to investigate the results of recent sales. I just wanted to make sure that I was starting at the most reliable ballpark values as far as price guides go. I have been watching graded notes with a greensheet listed value of $250 sell for $375, and the listing would say something like "Redbook lists value at $$$$". This had me wondering if the currency world tended to predominantly rely on a different price guide, just wanted to make sure that I was looking at the same thing as everyone else.

Thanks again, you guys have been a big help. :yes:

 

I wanted to add a potentially irrelevant comment, for scope. The discussion here is specific to US notes only. The market for non-USA notes is very different. While the US market has been a bit flat or down in recent years, and increasing now, prices for certain other countries (African and Asian, mostly) has been surging like a freight train in recent years, and feels like it could be flattening out of late.

Dave