My Thoughts on the U.S Coin Market and Coin Market as a Whole

Nothing but bullish.

From my investing & trading background and after weeks of careful review of the pcgs and other various coin indexes, the coin market as a whole is going to bottom out and start rebounding this year.

I strongly believe based on fundamental indicators that the U.S economy is headed up and we are finally coming out of the recession. (I called the recession back in mid 2007 before everyone was talking about it in the media, it's even on my youtube)

So, I believe this is good news for all of us and I also believe in the next five years we're going to see gold and silver continue its annual rise of 5-15%.

Good luck everyone who's in this for the long term!

-BNB

 

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I didn't realize the coin market wasn't doing great. Everything I've read about it the past year says it's booming, unlike the economy.
Guy~

 

Depends what chart you read; but yes, from what I've learned, the coin market is always going up it's just a very slow mover year over year.

 

FYI, for many series, the prices of coins were 2-3 times higher or even higher than that back in the late 1980s than they are now!!! The market crashed hard soon after that. Research high grade classic commemorative prices from the 1980s and it may shock you.

The PCGS 3000 which is an attempt to index and chart the overall US coin market is down over 60% from it's all time high in the late 1980s and is down maybe 8% since last year.

 

Yes but according this chart it seems we are in a gradual rise. Looks great! Man, that's beautiful.

Do you guys see the steady uptrend by bulls? Very good sign for all of us in my opinion.

 

Only if you believe that markets are made based on charting trends and not on fundamentals

The one year chart doesn't look as positive to me:

 

Well that's what I'm speculating off of.

And this is called technical analysis what we are doing right now by just studying charts.

Fundamentals are also very important ie. gdp, consumer confidence, etc but the overall price is a great indicator to look at as well to get an idea of future price trends.

 

I know, I'm just messing with you BNB. I actually have a degree in finance and of the four years in the program maybe an hour was spent on technical analysis and the rest of the four year program was about fundamentals. Guess that tells you what the professors thought was more important.

 

Yeah. Professor's favor fundamental analysis more than technical analysis independent studies show but hey, at the end of the day it's what makes YOU money and what's right. I just find T.A more valid of an argument with market fluctuations than fundamental analysis. Different strokes for different folks! yip yip!

 

As a non-coin collector, let me reply:

Part of the price appreciation of coins is from the upward price trend of the underlying bullion.

You may be correct that even upscale non-bullion coins are doing well in this market. (The rich always seem to have money in any economic climate.)

I am skeptical, however, that mid-range non-bullion coins can do well in this economic environment.

Then, again, I am not a coin collector.

guy

 

Gosh, I hope I don't have to start doing technical and fundamental analysis on my coins. I hope I can still buy them just because I like them, and get to keep them regardless of how much appreciation or ROI is seen in the charts

 

While I appreciate the OP's optimism, I have to (respectfully) question the level of knowledge/experience used in making the assessment.

 

Oh, well question away. What's your question?

 

Not really a question per-se.... Said bluntly, you seem to be relatively new to the coin game based on your prior posts so I would therefore question the level of understanding used in making your predictions. Doesn't make them any more right or wrong than the next guy -- and quite frankly I find forward looking predictions rather superfluous to begin with -- but it does temper the way I read them (which was the point I was trying to make in my prior post). Respectfully...Mike

 

Well, at least you're using the words "respectfully" so that's very nice.

I am a stranger to coins, yes.. but to markets i am not.

and the coin market is much like a stock market in the sense of appreciation/depreciation of price & value. the coin market from my studies moves MUCH slower than the stock market so some wouldn't even consider it a viable investment but i differ. it's a great conservative investment and no, not conservative meaning Ronald Reagan(love him!) but conservative as a safeR inevstment.

 

I think this is where the similarities end. Stocks for the most part have one set price. Coins have many different prices for the exact same item. This price is not a price that is published in stone anywhere just different people opinions of what the selling price SHOULD be. The pricing is in the hands of the seller of the piece. The market itself decides the prices of a coin. If a coin is overpriced, it will not sell and the owner will keep it until he decides to take a loss or the market makes his asking price more acceptable. If a coin is under priced it will sell quickly and be off the market only to be put back on the market at a higher price usually.

Long term, Yes coins can be a decent investment IF you buy the right stuff. Short term it reminds me of a television commercial where a man is at a live auction and he buys a painting and then wants to turn around and sell it right away at the same auction... It just doesn't make much sense.

 

That's becuase every single coin is unique and no two are exactly alike.

That's why treating the coin market like the stock market generally fails and it seems that those who have tried to treat coins similar to commodities/stocks have for the most part failed as well.

Each share of common stock, on the other hand, is exactly like each other and that's why you can assign a single price to each. You have to look at each coin individually and judge it and price it based on it's own merits (which can be different depending on the eye of the beholder).

 

There you go, That's the point I was trying to get across. Just much clearer.... When I said the "Same" I ment something like 2 1909 S VDB's in NGC XF45 holders for example. The 2 coins grade the same, but can be completely different as far as a price is concerned because of other variables. That is definitely something you dont see in the stock market and perhaps is one of the most difficult aspects of pricing the coin market.

 

I disagree strongly with the above assessment. A few reasons...

Coins are unique. Stocks are not.

Coins have huge buy/sell spreads. Stocks do not.

Coins are not traded on open markets. Stocks are.

Coins have an aesthetic (i.e. subjective) value. Stocks do not.

Coins are a very thinly traded market. Stocks (most of them, at least) are not.

Coins have retail and wholesale markets. Stocks do not.

Coins are an unregulated market. Stocks are a highly-regulated market.

IMO, the only similarity between the two markets are that they vary in price over time. Otherwise, I see no parallel.

Respectfully...Mike