My other Heritage Platinum Night Question - 1797 DPSE Half Dollar - NGC G6 vs PCGS F15 Sale

Hi All!

Thanks for bearing with my dumb questions. I promise this is the last one! (for now ) I'm just trying to understand - not annoy everyone with these questions.

The facts: In the Dr. Rev. James G. K. McClure collection auction in June at Long Beach, a 1797 Half Graded G6 by NGC with a CAC sticker sold for $35,000 + 17.5% BP. It's the O101a variety - the more common of the them. This auction at ANA, a 1797 Half Graded F15 by PCGS with no cac sticker sold for $38,000 + 17.5 BP. It's the rarer O102 variety. (again, like with my previous question - I'm not trying to start a PCGS vs NGC debate on these coins).

The question: Any thoughts on how a G6 in the more common variety almost sold for as much as an F15 in the rarer variety? The difference is less than 10%. Should I be reading absolutely 0 into this comparison in understanding how this happens? One would expect the F15 to command a larger price. Did the G6 overpay? Did the F15 underpay?

My (meh?) explanation: When people buy a coin like this, they are buying the coin and story behind the coin as opposed to the number on the holder. The NGC G6 is a solid looking coin for a G6 in an extremely rare type with a good (great? or meh?) provenance. The PCGS coin sold in 2011 and this is the first time in over 80 years the NGC has been offered for sale - it was previously unknown. They both look like honest coins.

My other explanation is that the price of entry to own one of these coins is very high, perhaps the price between grades is less than some other types because people want one so badly for a type set? The type set collector who isn't made of money and wants one of these might have the same amount of interest in the G6 or the F15?

Is the provenance in this case worth part of the difference in the grades of them?

The coins: http://coins.ha.com/itm/early-half-...6-4494.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515

http://coins.ha.com/itm/early-half-...78.s?ic2=mytracked-lotspage-lotlinks-12202013

 

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A lot of it with coins at that level can just be are the right two buyers interested it. One extra bidder and prices can soar, one less and they can be meh. In this case though there's really no conclusions that can be drawn in my opinion since one was in 2011 and the other 2016. The market has changed to much in the last 5 years

 

Although your words are as wise as usual, it looks to me like these both sold two months apart this summer, the 101a in June at Long Beach and the 102 in August at Anaheim.

The O-102 had less than half the page views at Heritage, and I've the feeling they were likely disappointed with how the coin hammered. There were two other 1797 O-102's sold in the same auction (mind, only three besides have appeared at Heritage in the last two years), both being of higher grade, and I think the market interest in O-102 was artificially depressed by the "flood" of examples. This same coin sold for $10k more in 2011 at the Chicago WFM.

 

Maybe I should have specified to avoid confusion for Baseball21. As superdave corrected, they both sold this year - 2 months apart roughly.

I would agree with that feeling that the seller was probably disappointed. As you said, this coin sold for $54k in 2011 and just $44k now. Which is evidence that expensive coins aren't necessarily good investments. Just to correct you SuperDave, one of the 3 97 in this auction was a o101a. I think it was crazy the fact that there were 3 1796 and 3 1797 in this auction. That's absolutely insane. If one wanted to consign a coin like this to heritage, would they tell the consignee that there are 2 (5) others already in the auction?

Some more prices: An F12 1797 O102 sold for $55,812.50 in December 2015 also. Another F12 in April 2016 went for $55,812.50 too. And this F15 gets $11k less. I bet this seller was disappointed.

I wonder if the market was just flooded for this auction. Although I don't know how much I buy that theory because the 3 1796's in this auction sold for much better prices. There are more '97s though and they do come for sale a little more than '96s. So maybe it was flooded market. I have to think about that more.

Could the fact that the very same coin was available in 2011 have hurt the price? Anyone who wanted it could have bought it then. Whereas the other one was never for sale before? Just speculation on my part.

 

You are absolutely correct, I misread the date on the one. Well forget that whole market part lol. I do think there is still some merit there when comparing it's last sale price, the market for the most part is much more of a buyers market right now and I can't say I am shocked given the buy and sell dates there was a bit of a hit taken on it.

I agree completely that when that ended there was a what just happened feeling from the parties and they certainly didn't do it any favors by including other examples of the same type in the auction. Really not sure why that decision was made given the varieties are usually a much thinner market to begin with.

I don't think so in my opinion unless people just remembered that they didn't like it then. 5 years if a decent time off the market though obviously not as good as a few decades.

 

The prices on particularly thinly traded coins such as this type are more a function of the fickle preferences and personal financial circumstances of the buyers than anything else. This coin is not particularly liquid. I'd say slightly more than those I collect though at a much higher price level. Even the most widely collected coins aren't really that liquid and sell for wide spreads versus the most liquid financial assets.

 

I would agree with your statement about preferences of the collector to some extent as well as the fact that these coins aren't the most liquid. Of course the spread on coins is bigger than the spread on stocks. Anyone can buy or sell chevron stock with a $0.01 spread. .

But yeah I just thought it was interesting the prices I have seen.

 

I don't buy any US coins. so I don't track prices that closely, though I do occasionally check any number of US series as a result of reading posts on coin forums such as this one.

In my series, Heritage sold installment three of the Rudman Mexican collection last Thursday. This sale was very weak in my opinion while the one in January was quite strong, even though this one had the most significant rarities from his pillar coinage.

Other than what I described to you, I don't know what else explains it. There are certainly a lot more collectors for DBSE halves because it is both a US coin and bought for type sets but there still aren't likely to be that many near its current price at one time.

The coin is somewhat scarce both as a date and type but since most are type collectors and at least 275 exist (I don't remember the exact number), it isn't really that hard to buy, except in grade. Anyone who has the money can still buy it on short notice, as I have seen it on both dealer websites and auctions without looking hard at all.

The other thing to consider for two coins in these grades is that apparently a substantial percentage of potential buyers aren't interested any more if it doesn't fit their narrow quality standards, regardless of the coins actual merits.

 

Another factor to consider is that some folks with fairly deep pockets are coin-crazed nuts like the rest of us, and emotion plays a part in their willingness to purchase too.

 

True, but "deep pockets" is relative. Like others here, I could spend more if I chose to do so but I do not because I have more important uses for my money.

To give you one example, in another topic, I mentioned the Rudman 1732 Mexico NGC AU-58 pillar 4R w/out assayer. This coin sold for about $27k, a pitifully low price for its significance and scarcity, especially when compared to equivalent US coins. Among US half dollars (which are the same size), I'd only rate the 1861 CSA and 1792 colonial Washington (Baker 24a) above it. There is one better of the five known for this variety and 10 or so of both varieties; the ex-Norweb coin.

I had no idea it would sell for this price, though it was within the estimate. Point is, if I didn't care about retirement, I could and would have bought it. Instead, I'm paying my mortgage off early.

 

Agreed. These price ranges are a lot of money (not so much to the buyers but most didn't get rich just throwing money away) and any given the excitement just may not be there for something.

That did remind me as well, there have been A LOT of massive money auctions this year which seems like more than usual anyway. At some point even buyers at those levels have to start getting fatigued

 

Smart man, we are doing that, plus a rental to give us the income needed to live WELL... Not rich by any means, but using your money correctly is important. Then you can invest in these large coins..
I think everything can go into each and every auction. I do many auctions, not coins.. and you just never know. How well was it advertised, Summer, Winter, who wants what, needs, Price, location, some small collector hits the lotto... Honestly, you just never know..
I like the Ivory Chinese puzzle balls because of the rarity, and difficulty in making them a long time ago when someone had the patiences to carve ivory... But, you never can guess what ivory will sell for, some hate the thought of it...

 

I dont think that will happen... too much money at the top and they have kids with wants. The avg. guy having a collection is dying, the rich just keep getting more things...
My nephew keeps his face buried in TV or his phone. I am always trying to get him involved in ANYTHING, yet his mother allows him to do NOTHING. WHen he was 7, he was bouncing off the walls bored and she got a doctor to tell her he need MEDS because he was a.d.d... I flew off the handle and put a stop to it, made her parent up, get him in baseball, Karate, and a few other things... No wonder the kid acted like a nut, you locked him in the house with YOUR boring life...
Now, I have my girl and her boyfriend, boyfriend #3 as I call him... Mr. nice clothes and car, baseball picture in high school and according to him, a pro prospect... I see right thru him, yet my daughter doesn't. Thought I did a better job, feel bad... He has zero common sense and cares more about his apperance then anything else... A joke ! is what he is...