Modern Commemorative TPG 70's

It's pretty well known that US Mint modern commemoratives flop when it comes to monetary value. One can argue there are exceptions (Lincoln, Civil War, etc.)

The idea I put on the table the TPG 70 MC's. Given the popularity of registry sets, will the demand hold for the PCGS and NGC perfect coins?

Thoughts, comments, ideas welcome.

 

Log in or Sign up to hide this ad.

From reading threads on CT, I'd say the general consenses is the prices won't hold. But who knows, my crystal ball is broken.

 

I agree with SQG, with so may graded in the 69-70 grade because they are pretty much hot off the press, their value will drop dramatically in the following years, at least, that's what I predict.

 

Coin collectors like nice rare coins. That is the basis of the hobby, not the investment side of numismatics. I would always error on the side of buying for long term holding rare coins in nice condition, not ultra high grade new coins. I cannot recall any time period where nice, collectible large cents, SL, capped bust, barber, colonial, or similar coins have decreased in value. I CAN tell you all about high grade morgans in the late 80's, and how they tanked and took a decade or longer to recover, not to mention the large date crazes, roll crazes, proof sets crazes, etc. etc. Long term money, you are safer in coins the long term collectors will always prize.

Another thing that makes me worry for the long term value of modern 70's and, (shudder) First day of issue.....stuff. That is where do you see them being sold strongest? TV. That tells me there is so many of these that true collectors really aren't interested and they are pulling in suckers to buy them. THat does not bode well for long term numismatic value. When is the last time you saw XF large cents on tv? Never. That is what I am saying, you want things in demand from the hobby, the stuff dealers are almost always out of stock, since they truly are desirable.

Just my opinion.

 

I didn't remember 1989 as having a general lowering of circulated collectible coins. Some softness, due to dealers getting creamed by BU Morgans and needing to move stock. I was buying a lot of capped bust material then, and at least I wasn't getting any deals . Maybe 2008 for US material, I don't know since I just collect ancients now and they are going through the roof.

 

The vast majority minted are either MS69/PF69 or MS70/PF70. I would much rather buy them raw from the Mint (or as cheap as possible in the secondary market) than to pay a hefty premium. You can always get them slabbed in the future if desired. I do not see these coins as investments, but regardless would not want to incur the financial risk just to have them slabbed. TC

 

Exactamundo TC. Picture the scenario mes Ami. You buy the coin from the mint for $43.95/$35.95. You send it off to be graded and low and behold it comes back a '69.....maybe a '70. But now you're out an extra $35 or $40 bucks for the grading fees. Fast forward one or two years down the road and you see one at a coin show (graded ) for less than the mint issue price. Carrumba.....

 

Man, I haven't seen that many numbers in the 60's since the last AARP convention! This looks extremely top weighted, which would explain 1989. In 1989 all of the "investment" quality coins got killed, starting with the Morgans but any and all coins classified "investment" declined. I would wager VF bust coins, large cents, circulated type coins etc did not the motion shown in the graph.

Just my recollection. I knew MS65 Morgans fell from $300 to $100 quickly, along with other 65's. I don't recall XF bust halves changing at all, except up every year like usual.

 

I am sure I am wrong Doug. Either that or I was just getting hosed. I paid $40-$50 for nice XF bust halves from 1987 to 1990, ($50-$70 for AU), then they started creeping up. That was quite a bit of money for me then, so I kept track of the prices closely. I believe Morgan 65's went from $150 in 87 to $300 in 89 then $100 in 90-91. Generic of course.

I guess my point was there is much less volatility in circulated, high quality collector coins than in any "condition rarity" or fad of the month. Therefor, there is much less risk investing in them versus the other, and much easier liquidation since they are always desired by collectors. Lots of money is made on the fads if you get into them quickly, but just as much money is lost.

Agreed?

Oh, and Green18's point is spot on.

 

people who are buying these modern day MS/PR 70 coins are in for a "rude awakening" :rollling: when the music stops. why mess around with something that was made yesterday when you can buy nice silver type coins for same amount of money.

today i went to a small coin show and when i look down into one of the dealer's show case and all she had was modern day 69-70 coins for sale. i just stand there shaking my head as she was trying to convince her customer how rare these coins were. i really felt sorry for the customer.

 

This tread went a little off topic. Some points I should have made in the initial post were:

A) The idea was coins with a score 70 coins, not 69s. The 69s are pretty much failed 70s and can often be purchased lower than the original mint costs.

B) It's purchasing already graded 70 coins. Not paying for the slabbing. Of course the big kicker is not over paying for the coins.

C) I'm not looking at it as an "investment coin". I said, "will the demand hold?" not if they will appreciate but more along the line of will they stay above water. Nobody even touched on the issue of registry sets building a floor for the price.

Again, I would not consider these an investment coins nor did I use those words. One could argue that they may be of a higher value in future generations. Though given the numbers of them cranked out of the mint it is doubtful it would be anytime soon or in the future.

All in all, I should have said, if you want to collect Modern Commemoratives should you only stick with the 70s in order to hold their value?

 

When one uses the term "hold their value", one is talking in terms of investment......

 

He actually said between one-third (33%) to one-half (50%) of the proof ATB quarters he has seen so far have graded PF70 DCAM. Still not rare of course and not sure if he was referring to clad or silver proof or both. I may be wrong but he is also likely referring to ICG graded coins only. I would doubt that NGC and PCGS are slabbing that high percentage of 70s.

Off topic...I thought his advice to only purchase toned coins that are already encapsulated was interesting given the surge in the marketplace for toned coins and the concern over AT.

 

I would view it the other way. I would say either non slabbed or 69's would be a better way to hold the value. I think the last grade is way too steep in the marketplace now. I think, especially now, we are seeing some commemorative exhaustion, and I think modern commemoratives could be some decent long term buys. If the price differential was something like $50 for a 69 and $150 for a 70, I would feel MUCH more comfortable buying 3 69's. Forty years from now there will be collectors wanting to assemble collections of these coins. I will guarantee that. Whether they will pay 3 times more for a condition difference they most likely cannot see I do not know, but I know there will be collectors.

The registry set thing will fade. Its another numismatic fad in my opinion, one created by TPG to induce mass submissions of common coins. It makes them a dollar, but I doubt it will do anything for collectors.