Local coin dealer conversation

Talked to my local coin dealer, (real dealer, sells nationwide through ads in various coin papers). It was really weird. He said EVERYONE is buying. He cannot keep anything in stock. I expected any kind of PM to be hot, and he affirmed premiums are up, but it is applying to everything he says. Bags of wheat cents, BU rolls, IHC avg circ rolls, Condor tokens, everything is selling. He had a man call him up after he saw a small ad and bought the entire ad.

His main worry right now is supply. He said he has emptied out 2 SDB of coins, and he is seriously worried that pretty soon he will have nothing to sell.

Anyone else seeing such strength?

 

Log in or Sign up to hide this ad.

Coin Vault sold out of most everything the other day. I'm not having much trouble selling clad though typical stuff won't sell unless it's chBU. BU rolls are moving as well.

Part of it is the stimulus checks but most of it is people are trapped at home with their computers and TV's.

This should give people a little taste of the future since individuals tend to put in longer hours but work fewer days as they age. They also tend to pick up more hobbies and spend more time with them and this coincides with their peak earning years.

Things would be much hotter if not for the exceedingly high unemployment.

 

I've been running weekly auctions for about a month now. The first two or three were pretty strong (about 1/3 of the items sold and did pretty well) the last one was a bit of a dud - a lot of cheap stuff in it, but cheap stuff always sells. (In fact, I've never quite understood why at these auctions someone will regularly pay a strong premium for cheap stuff, but refuses to buy quality stuff at a discount.)

The other 2/3 of the auction (the more expensive stuff) won't sell even with steep discounts on price guide values, most likely due to the auctioneer's buyer's premium (or maybe it's just material that that audience of people don't collect.)

I haven't been able to visit any of the local coin shops, flea markets, or coin shows (all shut down for over a month) so I've no idea how they are doing. It's a shame, because like your dealer friend says, you have to keep resupplying.

For the time being, I have enough stashed away to keep me busy at this pace for probably the rest of the year. After that...I'll need to figure something else out.

 

Combination of people sitting at home and extra money in their hands. Precious metals fluxing probably influenced it as well.

 

I had the dead exact same conversation with my dealer on Monday. His shelves are nearly bare. He thinks that people have seen an influx of cash with the government bailouts and are spending it on coins. I rather hope the long term impact is that we will have a host of new collectors in our midst.

 

I look at eBay several times a week just to see if items like I have many extra of are selling. I'm kind of discouraged as the activity and prices realized don't look favorable. I have all these extra mint sets, proof sets, commemoratives and other stuff that is selling below cost from the mint. I have to hold it or hope for more great grandchildren.

 

There's not exactly bailouts happening more loans.

That said yes some people that have money and are still getting paid working from home do see more disposable income as they aren't spending it on trips, or bars, or going to the opera, or fancy restaurants etc.

And yes I know most people have less money especially those that were living pay check to pay check but they likely weren't collectors anyways and no that doesn't mean I think it's okay what is happening

 

Poor wording on my part.

 

Remember how people in the PM room made fun of the silver sellers calling for doomsday next week, or maybe in the next hour so better hurry? What if people are worried that the doomsday folks are the dials on the "broken clock?"

What if they are worried that all this porkulus and bailout money will lead to high inflation? It doesn't matter if we get inflation, deflation or a shrug. It's what people hink and act upon that matters.

They borrowed 2 trillion dollars in one day. How long did it take this country to accumulate just one trillion in debt--centuries? Last I heard there was 26 million unemployed. How is this going to work? Who pays? Were does the money come from? Maybe people are becoming less terrified of corona and more terrified about the economy.

People in 1979 were hoarding PM's and coins. Inflation was 16--21% depending on who was reporting it. There were alot of coin investors buying anything shiny as long as Captain Ahab hadn't pounded a nail through the center.

 

The CU BST forum has been saturated over the past month, and things have been selling rather quickly. Even things I wouldn't expect to be sold at such a fast rate (e.g. whole collections of ASEs, WLH, WQ, and rather pricey rarities). I've also noted a lot of obscure numismatic items that I figured only I would want that I've had stashed away on my watch list for a while on eBay have sold.

People are just unloading their items for sale, and in turn buyers are eating it up.

I can see how local, small Great Grandpop, Grandpop, & Pop coin stores may have trouble keeping up.

 

Huh. Guess maybe it's time to put some stuff on eBay after all.

 

Great feedback to all, thank you. I was just shocked circulated IHC were flying off the shelves! Crazy.

Thankfully I literally have piles of coins around me at home as I work here. I did spend some "boredom" money at an auction recently. Maybe I am part of the problem, I have more time to look for stuff to buy.

@longnine009 I agree. I lived through the frenzy of 1979 as well as 2012. I simply do not remember non-pm stuff going crazy then. Maybe this is a normal PM recession panic coupled with millions working from home bored.

 

Now that is how you doomsday prep!

 

This is because the VAST MAJORITY of collectors are very unconfident in their abilities to evaluate higher-end or higher-quality coins. They are, however, confident in the lower-end or generic stuff, so they are far more willing to be strong buyers for it.

There’s also the quantity over quality aspect as well. Lots of collectors would rather buy thousands of cheap, common coins than one $1000 coin. They either feel like they are getting a better deal, or they feel more comfortable when the costs are far more distributed. This is psychologically why people hoarded toilet paper before they even considered canned beans. Bigger volume = more control and better deal.

And then there are the collectors who just won’t go outside their comfort zone regardless of how good a deal something is, unless it is super cheap. They either don’t recognize it for what it is, or they just don’t want to tie up money into something they don’t collect. Keep in mind most collectors aren’t buying the coins to flip them. You could have an 1829 O-129 bust half in VF ($70K coin), properly identified as such, in a coin club auction, and it would probably go for no more than $120 because the Red Book says an 1829 half dollar is a $120 coin in VF. They wouldn’t care about the rarity of the variety.

So yes, while dealing with such collectors is frustrating when you have high-quality coins to sell, this is where they are coming from.

 

If you do, let us know how it goes.

 

You see such a coin let me know. It just might bring a little more than $120.



In fact, I can pretty well guarantee it.

 

Auctions have always been weird, especially non-coin auctions with coins in them. I have told this story here before, but in the 1980s my dealer/mentor had a standing order with an auction house in town. Every week, junk silver dollars, a few junk halves, and one cheap $5 gold piece, (usually cleaned). The whole lot usually ran $200 or so each week. I went to his auction one time. The $5 cleaned gold went for $300+ by itself, and $5 junk morgans went for $15+, etc.

I told the dealer this, he said he knows, but if someone refuses to learn he can't stop them. It was a good outlet for junk that came into his store and he made a little profit on it.

 

I had a fellow once tell me (and it may have been here at CT).... Told me a smart auctioneer at an estate auction will seed the estate with various common coins.

 

Also ancient coins of low value often go for high bidding as the auctioneer mentions a date close to 2000 years ago and the locals think it must be worth a tremendous amount, and it seems to be whats on the reverse rather than the portrait on the obverse that gets it strong,such as animals, chariots, etc.

The unemployment numbers reached 3.84 million today. Currently futures for tomorrow DOW is about -400. I have been in cash and still in cash as big investors get inside info sooner ( if ever) than we do. Hang on. IMO, Jim