Lincolncent's Official Hurricane Contest Thread

First off, thanks to all who registered. The final list can be found on the original thread "Lincolncent's 500th (almost) Post Contest." Don't want to take up any more space here.

In this contest you will be required to guess:
1. The date the next tropical system (not necessarily hurricane as tropical storm and depression are both fair game). This is an exact day, not a series (i.e. Oct. 8, not Oct. 8-12)
2. The category the hurricane will be when it makes its final landfall. (i.e. Tropical Depression, Tropical Storm, Category 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.
3. The place of landfall. This is an exact city (i.e. Tampa, New Orleans, etc.) NOT a whole state.
4. (just for fun for you bullion investors) The price of silver at the time of landfall.

The points will be awarded on a system of 50 maximum. Everyone will be given 10 just for registering (and because I couldn't think of a 5th thing to guess lol)

Points will be awarded on the following basis:
Day_____________________________________
On the correct day (within 24 hours): 10 points
Within 48 hours: 8 points
Within 72 hours: 6 points
Within 96 hours: 4 points
Within one week: 2 points

Category__________________________________
Correct Category: 10 points
1 Category off: 6 points
2 Categories off: 4 points
3+ Categories off: 2 points

Place of Landfall_____________________________
Within 10 miles (or correct city): 10 points
Within 50 miles: 6 points
Within 100 miles: 4 points
101+ miles: 2 points

Price of Silver_______________________________
Within 50 cents: 10 points
Within $1: 6 points
Within $2: 4 points
$2.01+: 2 points

You are guaranteed 18 points based on this layout. I realize there will likely be clarifications needed so if you have questions PM me (so as not to clog this thread with questions). If I find the clarification to be vital I will post it in this thread.

NO GUESSES WILL BE ACCEPTED WITHIN 24 HOURS OF EXPECTED LANDFALL.

THIS CONTEST WILL END AT MIDNIGHT ON OCTOBER 31, 2010
IF THERE HAVE BEEN NO HURRICANES MAKE LANDFALL BY THAT TIME I WILL DRAW THE WINNER OUT OF A HAT (or bucket or whatever is handy).

I was originally going to limit this to US landfalls only however, in the interest of avoiding a drawing if at all possible I will make it open to any Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf landfall. However, no Pacific Ocean landfalls will count unless it makes US landfall (don't think that's ever happened before). That way we only have to keep up with one ocean's systems and not two. Remember, all guesses are for the FINAL landfall. So if a 'cane makes multiple landfalls the final one is what will count towards the points.

I am going to add to first prize and *maybe* create a second prize if I can find some money. I will post this later as it has no affect on actual guessing.

You may now post your guess. I will keep posting National Hurricane Center updates on the original thread so keep checking there.

If I realize I have forgotten something I will edit this post (or add new ones if need be). Remember, PM me any questions.

Best of luck to all. And happy hurricane hunting!

Tyler

 

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Ok. Here's the first NHC forecast. If you would like them all posted here let me know.
Thanks,
Tyler

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
SOMEWHAT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

2. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
HISPANIOLA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

And for those who would like to actually look at it here's some helpful websites:
www.wunderground.com
www.nhc.noaa.gov
www.weather.com (wouldn't suggest this one)
www.accuweather.com (use this with caution)

 

1. October 16, 2010
2. Category 3
3. Corpus Christi, Texas
4. $23.40/oz.

 

Regarding silver:
I want the ask price and the London PM fix.
Also: "No storm" is not an acceptable guess. Sorry. That would take the fun out of it.
Thanks,
Tyler

 

(1)Invest 97 will go TD on Saturday, October 2nd.

(2)Given wind shear conditions I think it will be a tropical storm when it makes landfall.

(3)I'm going to say Barbuda, because I think that's the closest it will come to a direct hit anywhere, but it should also bring heavy rains to Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands before turning North and eventually getting swept out into the Atlantic.

(4)Silver will be 21.50

 

1.Oct-14

2.Cat-2

3.Key West Fl

4.$22.30

 

October 18,

Cat 2

Panama City Fl

21.73

 

oct. 16

cat 2

miami, fl

22.11

 

Well, looks like 97L is drying up a bit. Nothing off the coast of Africa either. Next year I will do this contest in August/September instead of October lol

 

1. October 17th
2. Tropical depression
3. Charleson, SC
4. $20.70​

 

I've still got a little faith in her as long as she's virtually standing still over those warm SSTs. I've definitely blown the date for development though.

 

Seeing some nice convection there. It almost completely disappeared earlier today lol. Getting some thunderstorms going now. And yeah, I think they're still record warm in the Atlantic.
I bet they bump it back up to 30% at 2 AM or maybe more if those storms keep going.


Also: the GFS stalls this one out over the lesser antilles. Don't forsee that happening IMHO so I'm throwing out the models. lol.

EDIT: That down there on the bottom right is another watch area with a 10% chance of going tropical in 48 hours.

 

Thanks for posting these. I didn't know you could post animated gifs here.

 

I didn't either until Jallen did lol. And no problem.

I can't believe they still only have this thing at 20% chance during the next 48 hours. I think its significantly higher (maybe 40-60%). I guess their guess is as good as anybody's though. Winds should become favorable by Wednesday though (acording to NHC).

EDIT: Also, my animated satelite there updates itsself whenever a new frame is added on Wunderground. So its current.

 

I'm kind of surprised too. Looks like BAMM is developing it, but then again, what did BAMM ever get right? LOL

 

Good point. Guys over on talkweather think it's gonna get gobbled up by the front/trough but I'm more thinking a gulf run. I just don't see it making that turn on a dime. The models have been predicting those all season and not a single one has done it yet. The GFS has been running WAY west. Especially with Earl. Not (necessarily) expecting a major storm but a storm nonetheless.By the time this thing gets moving that high is going to have moved out of the way so it can get there.

 

As I gaze into my Crystal Ball I find----------
October 14
Cat 3
at the Texas / Mexico Border @ the town of Matamoros

23.33

 

1. October 11
2. Category 2
3. Pensacola, FL
4. $21.90

 

Best Guess

1) Oct 27
2) 3
3) Key West
4) $23.45

 

Looks like 97L is ramping it up tonight. Moving northwest now though. Still a threat to land. Remember, I opened this contest to ANY Atlantic landfall, not just the US. And if you don't guess, you won't be counted in the end if one does make landfall. After the first storm makes landfall, this contest is closed so get your guesses in now (unless you foresee no landfall until later lol).