Kennedy Half Price Anomaly ??

I have been looking for a pretty toned Kennedy Half for months, with little luck. They are a tough find. Then I found and bought this attractively toned PCGS MS66 1968-D Kennedy Half Dollar and by doing so it pointed out to me a strange anomaly in the PCGS price chart.



The blue arrow and circle below shows where a typical 1968-D PCGS graded MS66 falls in terms of price on the PCGS price chart ... $12.

Now notice where a Kennedy minted one year before (1967) and one year after (1969-D) would fall at the same grade level (the red circles): $230 and $275 respectively. That's a 20x price difference or 2000%!!!

I have been trying to figure out (to no avail) why the 1968-D is so common in MS66 and the 1969-D is so rare. They both had similar Business Strike mintages and similar Mint Set mintages.

It's interesting but if you drop back to the MS64 grade, all the prices compress to around the same value for almost all the years and mints ... around $9 to $11

And it's also somewhat shocking how the prices for all the silver and silver clad Kennedy's (including this anomalous 1968-D) explode when moving up one level to MS67 ... to close to $3000 (shown by the green circle in the chart below)

Does anyone have any theories on why the 1968-D Kennedy is so anomalously common in MS66 grade? While the 1969-D, as well as all other silver and silver clad Kennedys in MS66 grade appear to be (based on the list prices) 10 to 20 times rarer?

It's pretty clear that the relative field populations are much more similar in the MS64, and crazy high priced MS67, grades -- since the prices in those grade levels are much more correlated and "ballpark-y" between all the years and mints.

I guess one potential money making idea would be to buy as many PCGS-graded MS66 1968-D Kennedy Halfs as you can find for $12 ... and submit them to PCGS for regrading, hoping that you might luck out and get one to upgrade 1 grade level to MS67 where you could achieve a 229x price gain (on paper at least) from $12 to $2,750. Whether or not you could actually find a buyer at that (what seems to me to be a) crazy high amount, is another whole story!

 

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I asked an LCS owner this very question about 2-3 years ago. His response was that 1968 marked the return of mint marks, after their absence in 65-67. As a result, he said, a great many people held on to the first "Denver marked" coins in several years...resulting in a great many more higher grade examples remaining.

Even at the higher priced MS-67, the 68-D is STILL among the cheapest at that level, a SOLID 10% below even the '67, and well below the later D-mint mark 40% coins. This would lend some credibility to the above explanation, imo.

I don't know how accurate that story is...but it's the more reasonable one I've heard to date. I'd be curious as well to know if anyone has a more "concrete" explanation.

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The explanation for the "explosion" in price (and this is just me taking a guess, nothing to back it up) is probably the absence of MS68 and higher examples in that population report. MS67 appears to be the finest PCGS grade available for a majority of the silver/silver clad Kennedy halves.

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EDIT : Good grief, I almost forgot the most important part...that is a GORGEOUS 68D. I'm truly envious.

 

Agree, the return of mintmarks had a lot to do with it. You can find a lot more BU rolls of 68-Ds at shows than 69-Ds, although I think they have been mostly picked through. Then the 1970-D came along, only in Mint Sets, so more of them are available in high grade.

Look at the pop reports, too.

PCGS 64-65-66-67
1968-D 288-694-284-13
1969-D 247-255-92-3

Beautiful 1968-D! I have a 1968-D in MS67, pop 13/0, but my 1969-D is a MS66, pop 92/3.

​

 

Great posts and answers GBouton and Georgio! I think you hit the nail on the head -- that actually makes sense to me.

Although I have to admit as a kid collector of Kennedy Halfs back then, the 1968-D was no more special to me than the 1967 or the 1969-D. Though I can see how the movement of the mintmark from the reverse to the obverse in 1968 might have tickled someones fancy -- and there was that 4 year gap in D mint kennedy's from 1964 to 1968. 1968 also started a short P mint gap. To me the biggest news of 1968 was the restarting of the Proof Sets and the S mint Kennedy's.

Georgio, fantastic MS67 Kennedy!!! That is gorgeous!!!!!!!! Thanks for posting that.

Also on your population reports, that's really interesting. So the MS66 1969-D is ONLY 3 times rarer than the MS66 1968-D (1968-D population of 284 coins, 1969-D population of 92 coins) ... which does not justify a 20x price difference!

Investor Alert!!! ... Buy all the PCGS graded MS66 1968-D Kennedy's you can find at $12 ... They seem to me to be a near sure bet to go up in value.

Based on the statistics, I would guess fair market value of the PCGS MS66 1968-D should be closer to $90 (or 1/3rd of the value of the MS66 1969-D) rather than $12. (By the way, I am guessing things are running in this direction rather than the other way, where all other MS66 Kennedy's are overpriced since it's the singular 1968-D that is the outlier here. Then again who knows, maybe all the other dates ARE overpriced!)

 

The Gem 1968-Ds are dirt common, not so the MS66s. I track a lot of auction prices and these are the last price records I have (eBay-Heritage) for MS66 1968-D PCGS Kennedys

[TABLE="width: 419"]

1968-D MS66 PCGS
$54

1968-D MS66 PCGS-Heritage
$73

1968-D MS66 PCGS-Heritage
$35

1968-D MS66 PCGS
$35

1968-D MS66 PCGS
$42

1968-D MS66 PCGS
$38
[/TABLE]

These tend to be wholesale prices. Last Teletrade was $115. Looks like we need to send in a note to PCGS.

 

Thanks for all that great tracking Giorgio. It does look like PCGS may have erred with that $12 listing ... The average of your 6 sales noted above is $46 ... A note to PCGS would be good!

 

Those are two gorgeous Kennedy's. Thanks for posting them and some great information.

 

Just curious, when was there a four year gap in Kennedy half dollars from the Denver mint? The Denver mint is the only branch mint that has consistently produced Kennedy half dollars every year since the conception of the series. The San Francisco branch mint didn’t start producing (minting) Kennedy half dollars until 1966 exclusively for the new Special Mint Sets (coins dated 1965), and the Philadelphia branch mint stopped producing 1964 dated half dollars in early 1966 and didn’t produce any half dollars until 1971 when the new (current) clad composition was introduced.

NOTE: Although most ‘business strikes’1965 Kennedy half dollars were produced (minted) at Denver in 1966, the Denver mint started producing these coins on December 30, 1965, and the production ran a full two days before the new year began. For ease of book keeping, no mintage figures are recorded in the “Director’s Report” for 1965 and the entire run is listed in the report of 1966.

Getting back to the OP’s question on pricing for the 1968-D Kennedy half dollar in PCGS MS66, the last few that I’ve watch on eBay went for between $20 - $30. Six year or so ago, the 1968-D would trade for between $85 - $120 in PCGS MS66 plastic.

Like anything, it all comes down to ‘supply verses demand’. About five years ago, a Florida dealer (who shall not be named) came across a large hoard of 1968-D U.S. Mint Sets and made a submission to PCGS. When the coins were graded, the population for the MS66 grade grew overnight by over 125 (out of the entire submission he only got one to grade MS67). Until the collectors of the series adsorb the surplus, the price for the 1968-D will remain in the low end of the scale.

 

Hey Caleb, Great info.

What I meant to write was there was no "D" mintmarked Kennedy in 1965, 1966, and 1967. The four year gap of "D" Mintmarks was between the 1964-D and the 1968-D (although that's really just a 3 year gap, isn't it!).

In any case, I learned something from your post ... that the Denver mint was actually producing Kennedy's during that period but without mintmarks. I had no idea on that one! This forum is certainly furthering my "coin education"!

Also thanks for the info on the Florida dealer and the 1968 mint sets -- a nice factoid.

I actually have some 1968 and 1969 mintsets that I bought as a kid and I think I should probably take a look at them and see if I have any candidates for high grades -- it would be great if I could luck out and get an MS67 Kennedy from one of them.

The last thing I find interesting is how few collectors of slabbed Kennedy's there must be -- as a field population of 284 (the number of PCGS slabbed MS66 1968-D's) is still very small in the scheme of things.

You would think that with the 2 million or so mint sets of 1968 and 1969 there would more more of a supply of high grade Kennedy's for those years.

I did a quick internet search and found this tidbit: The 1968 Mint Set included a total of ten different coins struck at three different mint facilities. This was comprised of Lincoln Cents (P, D, S), Jefferson Nickels (P, D), Roosevelt Dimes (P, D, S), Washington Quarters (P, D), and one Kennedy Half Dollar (D). Notably, the half dollar included in the set was struck in a composition of 40% silver. The Philadelphia Mint coins and the single Lincoln Cent struck at the San Francisco Mint were placed within a cellophane pack with a blue stripe and the Denver Mint coins were placed in a pack with a red stripe. The two were placed between sheets of light cardboard within a white envelope marked “1968 U.C.” with the Treasury Department address. Sets were offered for $2.50 each compared to the $1.33 face value. Quality of the coins can vary greatly and often the Kennedy Half Dollar will be found with cloudy toning. Total mintage for the 1968 Mint Set was 2,105,128, a big boost from the production level of the prior Special Mint Set and last issued regular Mint Set.


Tell you one thing, looking at this stock photo of the 68 mintset, the Kennedy is certainly cloudy (and somewhat ugly!)

 

That story could have some plausibility. However, few of the Kennedy silver half dollars really circulated to any extent. The 1964's were saved in large quantities first as mementos of the recently assassinated President, and later when that wore off, as the last of the 90% silver halves. The 1965 through 67 halves circulated to a certain extent, but once the Treasury announced the end of Silver Certificate redemption in 1968, the silver halves quickly disappeared. I still remember people back then telling me that they were saving all the half dollars they could get because the coins contained silver and the government was going to stop issuing them. In 1969, there was talk in numismatic publications of withdrawing silver entirely from the halves in 1970, so that provided more motivation to hoard half dollars. Looking at my own 40% halves, by far the ones in the best condition are the '69's.

 

Well that is true in a relative sense but not an absolute one. You can find gobs of 1964 Kennedys, both circ and BU, today in junk/bulk 90%, and you can find 40% Kennedys still if you go through enough rolls. A couple of decades ago I and others could still spot their distinctive color in cash registers. Sure lots were saved as mementos of our slain president, but many millions were made, and tons of them circulated.

 

I agree with you that in the grand scheme of things, the population of PCGS certified coins are relatively small but how many collectors are maintaining their sets in slabs? I believe the majority of individuals that have collections of Kennedy half dollars either use a ‘Whitman’ or ‘Dansco’ album or keep them in 2X2s.

Most today, don’t realize or have forgotten that the ‘Coinage Act of 1965’ eliminated the use of mint marks or distinguishing features from our coinage but just because there is no mint mark on the coins dated 1965 – 1967 doesn’t mean that they were produced in Philadelphia. To the contrary, the new silver – clad composition authorized for the half dollars by the ‘Coinage Act of 1965’ were only produced by the Denver branch mint from 1965 – 1970 for circulation and SMS or proof examples were minted in San Francisco but no 40% Kennedy half dollars were minted at the facility in Philadelphia.

When checking your 1969 Mint Sets, make sure you examine the reverse of the half dollar for the DDR-001; it is a nice double die variety.

Just to keep the series interesting because upgrades are far and few in-between for our current set, we have been having fun with the variety side of the series. We picked up a few new varieties not that long ago and I really like the 1970-S DDO-001 & DDO-002. If you happen to have any varieties not listed in the below linked set or know where one is please drop me a note.

http://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/showcase.aspx?sc=1165

 

wow ... amazing registry set ... i have never seen so many varieties!

but i have a request for more photos!!!

 

No offense WingedLiberty, but I am pretty shocked that Kennedy made it into a slab and not labeled genuine due to the color.
Very informative thread guys, thank you!

 

No offense taken gbroke! I know a lot of toning is controversial. Not even PCGS is consistent with what is market acceptible and what is not. I have a few coins that are in Genuine holders that I think are fine. The most important thing is I like it!

One thing to keep in mind is i havent seen this coin in hand yet ... so it could look different live. I do plan on sending this off to be TrueView photographed, and will post that when I get it back.

Speaking of wild toned Kennedy's what do you think of this MS68? Not mine by the way (I wish!).

 

Really? I would have been more suspicious if it had been any toned color other than what it is. It seems to me the "brown tone" is about the only toning I ever see 40%ers having. Heck, the last time I went through a kennedy bag half of the 40%ers were that color.

Maybe its just me though.

Chris

Edit: not trying to say I am a toning expert, just reacting to colors I remember seeing while going through piles of coins/albums I have purchased.

 

Thanks medoraman. Yes picking AT is not an easy job at all. I usually just rely on PCGS to do it for me (but I know they can be fooled sometimes ... and overly picky other times)

By the way, this was another toned Kennedy I had my eye on (below, left) .. a 1964 PCGS MS65 OGH ... however that was listed at $725... just too rich for my blood!

I think the 1968-D that I bought (below, right) is somewhat ballpark to that old green holder'd 1964 in terms of the color ... browns, greens, pinks.

 

Well said WL. We all know how toning talk can go. Either way, what you do have is a pretty Kennedy in a nice grade.

 

I saw that on ebay today also. Way overpriced. Seems we both agree.

 

I hear you Chris. Who really knows, right? Aside from the blatent monstrosities, it' all a crap shoot if you ask me. As long as people find a coin eye appealing, then thats al lthere is to it.
I'll throw a few of mine into the thread. Frankly, as of lately..I really have no idea anymore. I have lost my faith.

Sellers pic


My Pic


some 40%'ers