John Kamin--"The Forecaster"

Does anyone know what Economist John V. Kamin of the Forecaster Moneyletter in Tarzana, Calif has any original observations on the coin and bullion market?

http://www.numismaticnews.net/article/forecaster_reveals_whats_ahead

I've seen his ads from time to time and was wondering if he has much legitimacy? Or is it just a matter of creative writing in the "numismatic" field for $$$ which is not very hard?

 

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I had a trial subscription in the late 80's or early 90's. It seemed to be more about real estate than anything else so I didn't renew it. I have no idea what it covers today.

 

In the past they usually advertised some special report that you could buy. Something like that might give you an idea as to whether you might like them?

 

@Owle did you see this?

 

All of them play the same game IMHO. Every year they predict a huge upsurge in prices, (say what their suckers, er subscribers want to hear), then explain why it didn't come true/who is "to blame", and predict higher prices next year. About once a decade they are "right", and let you know for the next ten years how they "correctly predicted the market rise in XXXX". Same game has been played for decades.

 

I enjoyed the video of Mr. Kamin, if I knew then what I know now I would have been hitting up banks for silver dollars at face value

 

Kamin did publish a book in 1978: How to Make Money in Coins. I wish he'd write a revised edition for today. Seems like nothing has really changed except for methods and media. Here's one of his quotes: "Common coins are not rare, rare coins are not common." That should be as obvious today as it should have been in 1978. Yet people still buy hyped coins off TV. Or they buy into some witch's brew "rarity" concocted by TPG's.

 

I almost always read the so-called experts predictions of the coin market as well as the PM market. Strangely enough, the accuracy is consistently less than 25%. You'd have better odds betting on the Farmer's Almanac or local weather man. The problem is there are factors affecting prices most people do not associate with the PM market. And as for coins, the factors that control prices/ demand are as unpredictable and volatile as world peace and the crude oil market.

 

The reason, I think, that so much forecasting fails is because most are just predicting the present.

Forecasters who actually go beyond that are usually doing so with much thought, logic, rationale, charts graphs and aerial photographs. So how's that's going to work out when the people affecting markets are instead projecting into the rationale world their inner world of chaos, conflict, confusion and especially in the case of coin collectors-- whimsy?

Another thing in Kamin's book is the rule of 10. Or don't buy coins that are less than 10 years old. That way you avoid paying for hype. I read this in 1978. Makes absolute perfect logical sense. But that didn't stop me from buying a Murk Diem Zombuck this year. I just liked it (whimsy) so it was screw the rule of 10, I want it.

 

That rule is as old as the hills. I ignore it at will if I just want a coin for my own satisfaction. For "investing" it makes sense, but I only buy collectible coins for my fun, so screw other people's rules.

 

Who ever gets advice when they need it on timely economic matters? Why don't serious matters get addressed when they are needed?
"There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil to one who is striking at the root."Henry David Thoreau

People say "get professional advice/help" when asking realistic or timely questions. How many competent ones are there in actuality for your situation? Very, very few that are around at the time when needed. For every competent piece of advice there are dozens of incompetent ones with bias, irrelevance, indifference or lack of ability to point in the right direction if they are not capable. And as usual money is a major hindrance.

 

You'll get very good advice from Thoreau. Especially on coin grading: "Men have become the tool of their tools."

 

Plus you wonder what the Pilgrims and Founders of America would make of the inordinate focus on what was once just "money". Idolatry? And then you have the "certified coin" phenomenon, how would they regard that?

 

They'd scratch their heads and try to figure out what law the coin broke and what kind of village stocks is that?

 

Should be stickied or plastered permanently on the front page of CoinTalk. Collectible coins may increase, but most collectors will never see that increase, even if it happens, due to buy/sell spreads. Simply put, to quote Frank Robinson, "Love your coins for what they are, not for what they are worth". I have $5000 coins, and $20 coins. I have some $20 coins I love more than my $5000 coin. I have a LOT of $200 coins I love more than the $5000 one. Price is only a budgetary restraint, you should love your coins for their beauty, history, artistry, not the price tag.

Treat every nickel you spend on coins as your entertainment expense. If you ensure you will get $200 of entertainment by owning a coin you spent $200 on, then you never "lose".

Can people make money on collectible coins? Yes, they are called dealers. If you only buy and sell coins based on pricing, I would call you a dealer not a collector. Nothing wrong with it, but its not the same. Dealers can appreciate coins, but they are not "addicted" to them and have the same passion about them as collectors.

 

You've just described coin collecting for me, as I see it. The profit I gain from collecting is far greater than any monetary value I can place upon it. It is a profit in time well spent enjoying it as a hobby. As a history lesson. As art. Those who see everything in life with dollar signs are missing the point of life and will never be satisfied.

 

I really like this one sir, and I am an accountant!

 

I've found a couple in my time.