Is This Guy Nuts?!?! 2010-D Nickel, PCGS MS-68 Full Steps for $4,000?!?!

Discussion in 'Coin Chat' started by coinmaster1, Sep 5, 2010.

  1. ProPointer

    ProPointer US Coinage Guru

    I would be a bit envious to buy off of eBay anyways.
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  3. statequarterguy

    statequarterguy Love Pucks

    As with any investment, there will be disagreements as to potential. What's being hyped in the market today, may be the reality of the day, but in general, one is wise not to accept the current hype. Will what many already believe to be crazy prices continue to rise in the future? Depends on how many believe high grade, high mintage coins are worth the price. Based on what I've seen, few believe it, but who knows.
  4. coinman0456

    coinman0456 Coin Collector

    Stupid system. AnywayI don't feel it's a worthwhile investment coin for my money. And I'll stand by my comment, this is a fantasy grade coin, waiting for that MS 69 to appear next year for a nominal purchase price of $8,000. Seriously though good like with your registry set. Do you own one of these?
  5. Treashunt

    Treashunt The Other Frank

    Is This Guy Nuts?!?!

    I believe that you answered that yourself.
  6. coinman0456

    coinman0456 Coin Collector

    Frank, I think you said in some previous posts, but I have a go at it again. The descriptions and the so called difference between a MS 67 coin and a MS 68 .........................Not worth my money, thank you very much. As Lehigh pointed out , those that get all sorts of crazy about the MICROSCOPIC , to the greatest Degree, difference ( MS-67- MS68 ) are the Registry Set folks. For me, I'm not playing in that game, so of course I have a hard line position in this regard. I'm not that picky, I'll take a 67 anytime I can afford to.
  7. Lehigh96

    Lehigh96 Toning Enthusiast

    I don't actively collect modern Jeffersons so no I don't own one. My registry collection is for 1938-1964. However, you are going to be waiting a very long time to see an MS69 enter the market. To my knowledge, there is no such thing as an MS69 Jefferson Nickel for standard business strikes for any date/mm.
  8. coinman0456

    coinman0456 Coin Collector

    True. But perhaps one may happen. Who knows. I'm somewhat familiar with your Jefferson set , and I applaud your patience , perseverance and keen eyes for some stunning Coins.
  9. Luke1988

    Luke1988 New Member

    How Rare is this coin? if i had a good eye and went to the bank and got $1000 in 2010 nickles and sent the best ten in what would be that odds of getting a MS67?
  10. coleguy

    coleguy Coin Collector

    Your odds probably wouldn't be very good, unless you did this a few times a week. However, if every collector did this I'm willing to bet the pop numbers would skyrocket.
  11. Pocket Change

    Pocket Change Coin Collector

    The interesting and central assumption here is that these MS-68+ nickels exist out in the wild in numbers large enough to expect to find them.

    You either vote "Yeah" or "Nay".

    The purchasers of these may also be seen like the lottery ticket buyers - roll those dice - take a chance. You're not going to get rich by spending $4,000 on a 3 cent nickel proof, after all!
  12. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    This is something I wrote on the very same subject in another thread this morning - I copy it here for obvious reasons.

    Now one of the other discussions going on in this thread regards condition rarity. And as I have said before, when most people think of condition rarity they almost always think of newer, more modern coins. But condition rarity has been around as long as coin collecting has been around. The nicest examples of any given coin have always been worth more than those of lesser quality. This is true of any coin you can name from any time period you can name. The higher the grade, the more the coin is worth. Nobody ever questioned this, it was taken for granted.

    But in modern times, a new wrinkle was thrown into the mix. Suddenly the existence of the numbers of coins in high grades came into question. It was considered that because mintage numbers were so high that there simply must be countless examples of high grade coins sitting out there in people's closets, drawers, safes etc. They just had to be there someplace. And the explanation for this logic was simple, it was because there were so many of them made, and that out of such huge numbers a great many high grade examples just had to exist - they just had to, it was simple logic.

    But people tend to forget things, they also tend to not consider all the facts. Things like those huge numbers. If for example I were to ask you in what year did the mintage number of any coin go over 100 million how many of you could answer me without looking it up ? I'll wager very few. Then suppose I ask in what year did the mintage number exceed 1 billion ? Very few could answer that either.

    Well, this may come as a surprise, but the first coin to reach over 100 million was an Indian Head cent - over 100 years ago. The first to go over 1 billion was a Lincoln cent of course, but it was in 1945 - over 60 years ago. And by 1955 mintages over 1 billion became routine, they were the norm. Now those are pretty huge numbers, any way you want to look at it.

    But yet how many of these coins exist in these high grades ? By what I can see from Heritage there are a grand total of 5 1907 IHC's in MS67 and none higher. Does anyone really believe that there are rolls and rolls and bags of 1907 IHC's out sitting in drawers just waiting to be discovered ? I rather doubt it.

    No whow about that 1945 cent with over a billion minted - how many high grade examples of those are there ? According to Heritage less than 50 in MS67 with 1 higher. So same question - do you believe there are lots of them just sitting in drawers waiting to be discovered ?

    So how close to the present to be we have to be to find the year where there are huge numbers of these high grade coins sitting in somebody's house just waiting to be discovered ? The 1990's - the 2000's ?

    Well it has been said that the population numbers don't prove anything. You might think that at first glance. But when you examine those population numbers looking at coins with huge mintages from 50 years ago or more, you find that the number of high grade examples is pretty dang low. And when you look at coins from 2000 that number is still under 1000. And that's out of over 13 billion examples.

    I submit to you that it is no different with the most modern coins than it was with those of the past. There are no huge numbers of high grade examples just sitting out there waiting to be found. The coins simply don't exist in high grades in huge numbers. The belief that they do is a myth ! And that myth will be disproved in the future just like it was disproved for the coins of the past that also existed in huge numbers.

    Read more:
  13. statequarterguy

    statequarterguy Love Pucks

    I’ll post an edited response from the other thread Doug mentioned too. I like Doug's analysis, with a few caveats. Although there are only a few high grade 1907 IHC’s certified, many more probably existed and back then people didn't care or did know how to preserve them, which does matter because now you have grade rarity. As for modern high grade business strikes, same thing, there are probably many more out there than certified and many of these high grades will be sitting in rolls and bags, waiting to be discovered, as today most collectors don’t care about them and many collect bags and rolls - yet, still the surviving population of modern high grade business strikes could be low. The big questions are, how many other than registry set collectors care, since they lack the underlying mintage rarity and how long will it take for the average collector to care about a high mintage high grade coin, a 100 years or more or until they can't find one themselves from available bags and rolls? Now, this isn't meant to offend anyone, only to make light of the issue, but a dealer once told me, when discussing modern business strikes, "There are a lot of dog turds out there too and I've only ever seen one green one, but I'm not willing to pay you anything for it".
  14. coinman0456

    coinman0456 Coin Collector

    Well that EBAY Seller must be one hell of a lucky Guy to have gotten all those 2010-D Jefferson Nickel's in 67FS and 68FS from Business Strike circulation. I find it curious that he did not post the same quality photos of the NGC 67FS coin, as he did with the PCGS MS68 FS coin. I'll bet if you can get a look at the reverse of that 67FS, their will be virtually no recognizable distinction between the two coins. To Early to tally how many of the circulating 67's and 68's are out there in rolls at the FED. To try to justify a $3,500 price differential between those grades IMHO is non-sense . 10-15 years down the road, perhaps may tell a better story. I dare to say, that I don't think this 68FS will wind up any any notable Numismatists Collection. BTW what is the total mintage for the 2010-D Jefferson nickels ? Anyone know what is stockpiled at the FED ? Okay so I have an answer to one of my own questions. The Denver Mint production to date is 36.24 million . Now I'm fairly confident that they all have not been released by the FED into Circulation just yet, and that figure was the entire June Production.
  15. coleguy

    coleguy Coin Collector

    They reason they don't exist, Doug, as I'm sure you'll agree, isn't because they never existed, but because people didn't save them as such. Nobody ever said here that there are hoards of high grade modern coins sitting in closets yet to be discovered. What was said is that most collectors don't submit high grade modern coins to tpg's so the vast majority go into general circulation where they cease to be high grade. Just because the pop numbers reflect small amounts of these coins doesn't mean there aren't originally tens of thousands in these grades to begin with.
  16. Derekg

    Derekg Member

    i went to the bank today asked for a box of nickels and all of them were 2010 uncirculated nickels and i got em for free what makes this coin so special...exactly.
  17. Duke Kavanaugh

    Duke Kavanaugh The Big Coin Hunter

    What do you think about the way gradeflation has affected the markets in the past and what make you think that it won't continue to creep higher and higher till there are many 70's.
    ASE's used to be the same way...
  18. Duke Kavanaugh

    Duke Kavanaugh The Big Coin Hunter

    Read the thread again, if you did at least. It's about the Grade that the coin was in.
    Send in your whole box and see if you get a 68FS. It'll cost you tons to do it so you better how you do get one.
  19. Derekg

    Derekg Member

    Either way 4K for a 5 cent nickel honestly...i love coin collecting but i don't think i will ever go above $50 for a coin and honestly i haven't yet. I think the most i've waisted in a coin was $25. Not even if i was rich would i ever spend it on that. I'm just saying.
  20. Duke Kavanaugh

    Duke Kavanaugh The Big Coin Hunter

    Well I said I would not also but I have and would spend more then $50 on a nickel :D
    Even over the $4k if I had the extra income to do it and I liked it.

    How about a MS64 3 Legged Buffalo or a 1880 Shield Nickel in MS65 (mintage 19k) or 1865 Proof 3 Cent Nickel in 65!! Now those would be worth the $$.
  21. Lehigh96

    Lehigh96 Toning Enthusiast

    I don't see gradeflation creating new top pops for any series. ASE's are actually found in MS69 & MS70 grades. Jefferson Nickels are not.
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