Discussion in 'Coin Chat' started by coinmaster1, Sep 5, 2010.
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As with any investment, there will be disagreements as to potential. What's being hyped in the market today, may be the reality of the day, but in general, one is wise not to accept the current hype. Will what many already believe to be crazy prices continue to rise in the future? Depends on how many believe high grade, high mintage coins are worth the price. Based on what I've seen, few believe it, but who knows.
Stupid system. AnywayI don't feel it's a worthwhile investment coin for my money. And I'll stand by my comment, this is a fantasy grade coin, waiting for that MS 69 to appear next year for a nominal purchase price of $8,000. Seriously though good like with your registry set. Do you own one of these?
Is This Guy Nuts?!?!
I believe that you answered that yourself.
Frank, I think you said in some previous posts, but I have a go at it again. The descriptions and the so called difference between a MS 67 coin and a MS 68 .........................Not worth my money, thank you very much. As Lehigh pointed out , those that get all sorts of crazy about the MICROSCOPIC , to the greatest Degree, difference ( MS-67- MS68 ) are the Registry Set folks. For me, I'm not playing in that game, so of course I have a hard line position in this regard. I'm not that picky, I'll take a 67 anytime I can afford to.
I don't actively collect modern Jeffersons so no I don't own one. My registry collection is for 1938-1964. However, you are going to be waiting a very long time to see an MS69 enter the market. To my knowledge, there is no such thing as an MS69 Jefferson Nickel for standard business strikes for any date/mm.
True. But perhaps one may happen. Who knows. I'm somewhat familiar with your Jefferson set , and I applaud your patience , perseverance and keen eyes for some stunning Coins.
Your odds probably wouldn't be very good, unless you did this a few times a week. However, if every collector did this I'm willing to bet the pop numbers would skyrocket.
The interesting and central assumption here is that these MS-68+ nickels exist out in the wild in numbers large enough to expect to find them.
You either vote "Yeah" or "Nay".
The purchasers of these may also be seen like the lottery ticket buyers - roll those dice - take a chance. You're not going to get rich by spending $4,000 on a 3 cent nickel proof, after all!
Now one of the other discussions going on in this thread regards condition rarity. And as I have said before, when most people think of condition rarity they almost always think of newer, more modern coins. But condition rarity has been around as long as coin collecting has been around. The nicest examples of any given coin have always been worth more than those of lesser quality. This is true of any coin you can name from any time period you can name. The higher the grade, the more the coin is worth. Nobody ever questioned this, it was taken for granted.
But in modern times, a new wrinkle was thrown into the mix. Suddenly the existence of the numbers of coins in high grades came into question. It was considered that because mintage numbers were so high that there simply must be countless examples of high grade coins sitting out there in people's closets, drawers, safes etc. They just had to be there someplace. And the explanation for this logic was simple, it was because there were so many of them made, and that out of such huge numbers a great many high grade examples just had to exist - they just had to, it was simple logic.
But people tend to forget things, they also tend to not consider all the facts. Things like those huge numbers. If for example I were to ask you in what year did the mintage number of any coin go over 100 million how many of you could answer me without looking it up ? I'll wager very few. Then suppose I ask in what year did the mintage number exceed 1 billion ? Very few could answer that either.
Well, this may come as a surprise, but the first coin to reach over 100 million was an Indian Head cent - over 100 years ago. The first to go over 1 billion was a Lincoln cent of course, but it was in 1945 - over 60 years ago. And by 1955 mintages over 1 billion became routine, they were the norm. Now those are pretty huge numbers, any way you want to look at it.
But yet how many of these coins exist in these high grades ? By what I can see from Heritage there are a grand total of 5 1907 IHC's in MS67 and none higher. Does anyone really believe that there are rolls and rolls and bags of 1907 IHC's out sitting in drawers just waiting to be discovered ? I rather doubt it.
No whow about that 1945 cent with over a billion minted - how many high grade examples of those are there ? According to Heritage less than 50 in MS67 with 1 higher. So same question - do you believe there are lots of them just sitting in drawers waiting to be discovered ?
So how close to the present to be we have to be to find the year where there are huge numbers of these high grade coins sitting in somebody's house just waiting to be discovered ? The 1990's - the 2000's ?
Well it has been said that the population numbers don't prove anything. You might think that at first glance. But when you examine those population numbers looking at coins with huge mintages from 50 years ago or more, you find that the number of high grade examples is pretty dang low. And when you look at coins from 2000 that number is still under 1000. And that's out of over 13 billion examples.
I submit to you that it is no different with the most modern coins than it was with those of the past. There are no huge numbers of high grade examples just sitting out there waiting to be found. The coins simply don't exist in high grades in huge numbers. The belief that they do is a myth ! And that myth will be disproved in the future just like it was disproved for the coins of the past that also existed in huge numbers.
Read more: http://www.cointalk.com/t96662/#ixzz0ylJSPUP7
What do you think about the way gradeflation has affected the markets in the past and what make you think that it won't continue to creep higher and higher till there are many 70's.
ASE's used to be the same way...
Read the thread again, if you did at least. It's about the Grade that the coin was in.
Send in your whole box and see if you get a 68FS. It'll cost you tons to do it so you better how you do get one.
Either way 4K for a 5 cent nickel honestly...i love coin collecting but i don't think i will ever go above $50 for a coin and honestly i haven't yet. I think the most i've waisted in a coin was $25. Not even if i was rich would i ever spend it on that. I'm just saying.
Even over the $4k if I had the extra income to do it and I liked it.
How about a MS64 3 Legged Buffalo or a 1880 Shield Nickel in MS65 (mintage 19k) or 1865 Proof 3 Cent Nickel in 65!! Now those would be worth the $$.
I don't see gradeflation creating new top pops for any series. ASE's are actually found in MS69 & MS70 grades. Jefferson Nickels are not.
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