Is there a more accurate price guide than eBay completed listings/HA Realized prices?

I would like for this to be a tactful discussion. I'll be the first to admit that I can be very opinionated, and am often snapped back into place by seasoned senior collectors. So here is the question(s). Is there a more accurate/up to date price guide than eBay completed listing or Heritage Auction Realized Prices? I would like to know the source of greysheet pricing guide. I have a fuzzy vision of the white house situation room. 20 top Senior Numismatists sit around a table drinking coffee and look at realized prices from coin shows. Obviously someone knows the answer and can correct this false assumption, but really... how do they come up with their prices? My guess would be that it comes from the internet. With a wealth of information readily available and setup via completed listings/realized prices it would be at a much time consuming opportunity cost to use any other method. How would it be current? On another note, how could there possibly be a more accurate market price guide? I can understand the argument for rare coins, but how about sub 1k PCGS/NGC slabbed coinage? The supply and demand curve is shifting at a rapid rate.

 

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Jason,
Maybe I don't understand what you are asking, but this in my opinion, PCGS has a cost site that will give you current price values. I use this as a guide only and go from there.

To me most coins do not have a set value, because what is set today is not what it was last year or a year from now.
I try to buy what I like or want as long as the price doesn't become to outragious.

For a coin collector it's all about getting the coins you want, not whether you make a killing or not.

Dave

 

I don't have anything to back me up, but I would suppose that who ever puts together the grey sheet employs people who are pretty much experts in finding the pricing, and that they use algorithms that they are probably not really willing to share, depending on the variables. Put that into a data base that has been set up, with prices realized from many different sources, and keep track of the trends. That's what I think based on no knowledge at all of this. But I throw it out there, because it's possible I could be either hitting a couple of the points, or totally off, and someone with the experience can come along and correct this supposition.

 

There are many venues for dealers to do business with each other besides HA, and Ebay. The people at the Greysheet monitor dealer to dealer "wholesale" transactions on these venues ( "Coin Dealer Newsletter"). The completed auctions on Teletrade, Stacks, Heritage,and David Lawrence are where PGCS and NGC are more likely to get their prices, because they are retail. If you have 1,000,000 inventory and PNG membership you could probably have access to this information as well, but for me I'll use the greysheet, and completed auction listings.

 

I'd recommend subscribing to the grey sheet if you are going to be buying and selling coins.

 

This might help a little:

http://www.greysheet.com/cdn/cdnuse.asp

I'm not sure exactly how many people they have on staff, or how many completed auctions/want lists they go through, but I'm sure it's a substantial number.

 

It is my understanding that, among other things, the Graysheet and Bluesheet prices are based on sight-seen and sight-unseen bids, respectively. Such bids are posted on electronic coin trading networks - the Certified Coin Exchange and CoinPlex.

 

I think it would be good to mention that it might be better to search the BIN listings for completed sales rather than the auction listings as the BIN will not have a bunch of "bidiots"(Chris' term) going bid crazy over the item.

At least with the BIN listings the item will sell at the asking price or it won't.

 

I'm going to say no, there is no definitive or more accurate price guide. Depending on what you're looking for, there are two different catagories for price to be considered. One is the prescious metal content of the coin. This price fluctuates with the spot price of the metal in question. Then there is the numismatic value, which is not necessarily a tangible number. Like it was stated in earlier posts, these price lists are a combination of factors processed into someone's opinion on what the value of the coin should be. But, if I want a particular coin more than you at auction, then I'm going to bid more to acquire that coin, within reason and my budget. If a coin is for sale, and I want it more than you, I may be willing to pay closer to the asking price than you, irregardless of what some sheet says it's worth. I can use the various sources of information available to me and come to price I'm willing to pay for that particular coin. But it ultimately comes down to how badly I want it. That's why I recommend using several sources, making the judgement yourself, based on the average pricing, what you can afford, and how much you want a prticular coin.

 

Jason, US coins are basically the best tracked coin series in the world. I would agree that a greysheet subsciption is called for for a dealer. They can never be perfect, if only because:

1. Coins are imperfect, as are collectors. Matching the coin to the collector who prefers those can always lead to above greysheet pricing, as well as liquidating a coin can lead to below market pricing. On the whole, however, its probably the most up to date price list you can own.

2. All price lists, by definition, are history. They cannot by definition be today's pricing, right? So, its always possible to have deviations from them based upon moving markets, and a good dealer learns how to pick up those movements before they are listed in the greysheet.

If you know these limitations, learn to grade accurately, spot problem coins, and "learn" the value of toning, you will be in a good place in my view.

Chris

 

CCE is way too expensive for most of these folks. $199 per Month just to LOOK.

 

I personally like CoinFacts myself. Realized prices from many venues. It costs, but I think it is well worth it and a little bit better of a market indicator for the series I collect.

 

I was only allowed to take the tour Doug. By the way who is David Hall? I like the market report, but I wish he did one on sub 1k coins.

 

The problem with using completed auction listings as price guides is that it's too much like reading a racing form. Sure, you get what happened in the past. But that may not be what will happen today or tomorrow. If 2 bidders get in a war over an item, they can drive the price through the roof. The next day, maybe only one person wants it and gets it for next to nothing. I know that's a bit simplistic, but the point is there. Using eBay BIN doesn't tell you much unless you know for a fact that the item was actually sold at that price. I mean I see BIN in auction listing a lot where there aren't any bids. I don't trust anyone to state the value on something they don't actually have. A lot of "experts" are good at that, and it's always lower than what the items actually sell for. IMHO

But you need a guide, so I think the Grey Sheet is the best palce to start.

 

Most high quality coins are Buy now price with a make offer option. On the other hand I do not believe you can discount bidding auctions. If you compile data of thousands of bidding auctions you will basically have an accurate guide to the current market trend?

 

Am I really the only person to LOL at that? How can you have more accuracy then prices of what coins are actually selling for? Every published book or newsletter is wishful thinking and not records of sales.

Someone else mentioned that seeing completed auctions isn't reliable because its the past...so is a book written a year in advance or a newsletter written a week ago with dealers hoping to make transactions.

 

Yep, that works.